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You're still confused. The EMH is understood to imply that securities prices are the NPV of future cash flows (or more specifically their best estimate, using a
by nwiswell 4y ago
You're still confused. The EMH is understood to imply that securities prices are the NPV of future cash flows (or more specifically their best estimate, using all public information), but that has nothing to do with ROIC.
(As an aside, the EMH is obviously false and you don't need to look any further than meme stocks for evidence, but anyway)
For example, suppose you have two businesses, both of them have a future cash flow NPV of $1 billion. However, one of them was started in a garage with $1 million of angel money. The other one is a "fallen unicorn" that got $500 million of VC money before it finally IPOed.
The ROIC of the first company is obviously going to be something like 500x the second, but this is irrelevant to their market caps, which should be the same in textbook-EMH-land, ceteris paribus.