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Are there really many cities in the western world that dont have a housing shortage? I'm worried that the housing shortage isn't caused by increased population,

by mcntsh 4y ago

Are there really many cities in the western world that dont have a housing shortage? I'm worried that the housing shortage isn't caused by increased population, and that building more houses won't necessarily solve the problem.

dieselgate 4y ago
I have no housing research to back this up but wonder if it’s similar to increasing the number of lanes on a road Can lead to worse traffic
hanoz 4y ago
I suspect that in much of the western world what looks like a shortage of housing is actually an excess of capital.
- alwayslikethis 4y ago
  Not excess of capital, but rather excess of money, due in large part to expansionary monetary policy such as reduced interest rates, allowing companies and investors to scoop up housing, supply of which is not flexible in the short term. In a smaller part it is decades of NIMBY activism and zoning laws making it near impossible to build new homes.
972811 4y ago
It isn’t increased population, it’s population increase in targeted areas (cities), plus financial instruments that make it easy to afford more expensive homes, plus existing homeowners with no incentive to encourage more supply.
tmnvix 4y ago
I agree. I think it's imperative that we come up with a way to properly count underutilized properties. By underutilized properties I mean empty, landbanked, holiday and second homes, Airbnb's, etc - basically everything that isn't a primary residence. I've seen many indications that these have increased as a proportion of the housing stock. I appreciate that people have a right to do what they like with their property, but when so many start buying properties that are then removed from the 'primary residence' portion of the stock, we have to look at what this means for society.
huitzitziltzin 4y ago
There are plenty which don’t. Look at the smaller US cities. You can get large, relatively new houses in Youngstown, OH for less than $150/sq foot. Similar prices can be found in Omaha, NE or Iowa City, IA or Oklahoma City, OK. (For reference I looked for houses with at least four bedrooms in all places.) This isn’t a matter of the cost of construction. It’s a matter of supply not keeping up with demand due to very very very stringent regulations on land use. None of this has to happen. This is a self-inflicted wound.
- slv77 4y ago
  Except that before the “I’ve Never Seen A Bubble” Federal Reserve and “Everything’s AAA” Credit Agencies got involved those prices were closer to $60/sq foot. The massive amount of QE since 2008 and 2020 has sloshed into the housing market. The saying used to me that “all real estate is local” meaning that economic trends didn’t dominate local economic trends. Today it’s completely dominated by the Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IASTHPI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IASTHPI

by mcntsh 4y ago

dieselgate 4y ago

I have no housing research to back this up but wonder if it’s similar to increasing the number of lanes on a road Can lead to worse traffic

hanoz 4y ago

I suspect that in much of the western world what looks like a shortage of housing is actually an excess of capital.

alwayslikethis 4y ago
Not excess of capital, but rather excess of money, due in large part to expansionary monetary policy such as reduced interest rates, allowing companies and investors to scoop up housing, supply of which is not flexible in the short term. In a smaller part it is decades of NIMBY activism and zoning laws making it near impossible to build new homes.

972811 4y ago

It isn’t increased population, it’s population increase in targeted areas (cities), plus financial instruments that make it easy to afford more expensive homes, plus existing homeowners with no incentive to encourage more supply.

tmnvix 4y ago

I agree. I think it's imperative that we come up with a way to properly count underutilized properties. By underutilized properties I mean empty, landbanked, holiday and second homes, Airbnb's, etc - basically everything that isn't a primary residence. I've seen many indications that these have increased as a proportion of the housing stock. I appreciate that people have a right to do what they like with their property, but when so many start buying properties that are then removed from the 'primary residence' portion of the stock, we have to look at what this means for society.

huitzitziltzin 4y ago

There are plenty which don’t. Look at the smaller US cities. You can get large, relatively new houses in Youngstown, OH for less than $150/sq foot. Similar prices can be found in Omaha, NE or Iowa City, IA or Oklahoma City, OK. (For reference I looked for houses with at least four bedrooms in all places.) This isn’t a matter of the cost of construction. It’s a matter of supply not keeping up with demand due to very very very stringent regulations on land use. None of this has to happen. This is a self-inflicted wound.

slv77 4y ago
Except that before the “I’ve Never Seen A Bubble” Federal Reserve and “Everything’s AAA” Credit Agencies got involved those prices were closer to $60/sq foot. The massive amount of QE since 2008 and 2020 has sloshed into the housing market. The saying used to me that “all real estate is local” meaning that economic trends didn’t dominate local economic trends. Today it’s completely dominated by the Fed. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IASTHPI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IASTHPI