Perhaps, but AIT doesn't actually give any useful information about the phenomenon of split votes. It doesn't tell you how likely they are, or give any statis

Perhaps, but AIT doesn't actually give any useful information about the phenomenon of split votes. It doesn't tell you how likely they are, or give any statistical insight into the effect at all. Anytime there is an election, it is always technically possible that people's preferences are uniformally distributed and no electoral system could ever give a good result. That's basically all that AIT says.