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Search marketshare for Bing is 3% now, Google is 90%. How do you expect Sydney (or generally, AI-powered chat interfaces for Search) to affect Bing's marketshar

Search marketshare for Bing is 3% now, Google is 90%. How do you expect Sydney (or generally, AI-powered chat interfaces for Search) to affect Bing's marketshare over the next 5 years? Is it going to be like a first order phase transition, where Bing steals a massive amount of market share quickly? Or will it be more gradual? What does Sydney actually add to Bing other than being a fun toy? It's not really a personal assistant, it's like Google's top widget that synthesizes answers from pages. I've had a Google Pixel with their personal assistant for several years and I never use it because it's a gimmick. I don't think Sydney or ChatGPT is even close to a 10x on that technology, or that there is any real "new" innovation here. GPT-3 has been out for quite a while, and all of the other big tech companies have similar technology. They are all going to catch up pretty quickly if this human-computer interface (AI chat) actually catches on this time... It has been introduced a handful of times in history before, and didn't catch on. Maybe Nth time is a charm? Obviously the tech wasn't ready before, but is it ready now?

siva7 4y ago
Well, it's already happening. The world press talks about Bing for weeks. Something that didn't ever happen before.
- throwaway4837 4y ago
  The press talked about a lot of fads for weeks, like PokemonGO. At this point there's nothing to indicate that this is or isn't a fad. Everything starts like this: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=bing,chatGPT,AI%20chat,AI https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=bing,chatG... And many things end up like this: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=google%20plus,pokemongo,game%20of%20thrones https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=g... Not trying to say AI chat isn't cool, but I think a common tendency is for humans to overhype the wins and oversell the losses. Seeing a lot of people praise Bing's chat as revolutionary is cute because while it's a 10x better AskJeeves, it's not even on par with incumbent search engines at this point. The only real "innovation" here is that they changed the interface from search to natural language context-preserving chat. That itself would be meaningless if it didn't achieve parity with search...
  - siva7 4y ago
    Even if PokemonGo is in your terms a fad (what isn't if your definition of fad gets too broad?), it was wildly successful in its product category. I believe there is a misconception about the goal to achieve parity with a traditional search engine (what ever that means). Yes, it's part of a brand whose main product is a search engine. Bing Chat doesn't need to compete with a traditional search engine to prove its usefulness as we have seen with many examples. In the same sentiment of your comment one could also say a common tendency in (some) humans is to undersell the wins.

siva7 4y ago

Well, it's already happening. The world press talks about Bing for weeks. Something that didn't ever happen before.

throwaway4837 4y ago
The press talked about a lot of fads for weeks, like PokemonGO. At this point there's nothing to indicate that this is or isn't a fad. Everything starts like this: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=bing,chatGPT,AI%20chat,AI https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=bing,chatG... And many things end up like this: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=google%20plus,pokemongo,game%20of%20thrones https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=g... Not trying to say AI chat isn't cool, but I think a common tendency is for humans to overhype the wins and oversell the losses. Seeing a lot of people praise Bing's chat as revolutionary is cute because while it's a 10x better AskJeeves, it's not even on par with incumbent search engines at this point. The only real "innovation" here is that they changed the interface from search to natural language context-preserving chat. That itself would be meaningless if it didn't achieve parity with search...
- siva7 4y ago
  Even if PokemonGo is in your terms a fad (what isn't if your definition of fad gets too broad?), it was wildly successful in its product category. I believe there is a misconception about the goal to achieve parity with a traditional search engine (what ever that means). Yes, it's part of a brand whose main product is a search engine. Bing Chat doesn't need to compete with a traditional search engine to prove its usefulness as we have seen with many examples. In the same sentiment of your comment one could also say a common tendency in (some) humans is to undersell the wins.