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The article specifies rich, maybe beacuse, at least in the US, only the rich can afford to live in places where cars aren't strictly necessary? Some choose to l

The article specifies rich, maybe beacuse, at least in the US, only the rich can afford to live in places where cars aren't strictly necessary? Some choose to live elsewhere anyway, for scenery or privacy, but the poor or even median 60% can't choose an area with a 15 minute walk to necessities. The Seattle walkability map on hn recently highlighted that fairly well I think? I also wonder if it is truly cars or just driving that is out of favor? If so, will full self drive fix that if and when it ever arrives?

dsfyu404ed 4y ago
The rhetoric and trends around transportation seem to be reflective of the increasing bifurcation (both economically and socially) of society in general.
HeckFeck 4y ago
This is the situation where I live too, in a non-London part of the UK. There are buses and trains but they mostly just link you to the larger cities, outside of the cities it isn't a viable replacement for car ownership. Also if you're planning to have a family, a car is essential. Herding children on packed public transport is a no-no. I can imagine it being easier to walk with children if you're living in high trust communities where all amenities are available within walking distance, but that might also be a wealth thing too.
freddie_mercury 4y ago
The article cites national statistics. Is your argument that those national statistics are being driven entirely by changes in rich cities? That the changes in driving habits have been so large that it drags down the bottom 60%. The article says that in 1997 43% of 16-year olds had a driver's licence but by 2020 it had fallee to 20%. Since you're claiming that's entirely driven by the richest 40% let's do some simple math to quantify the implications of your claim. If richest 40% of 16 year olds had 0 driver's licences... Not a single one in the entire country... Then the national rate would have fallen to 25% not 20%. So the richest 40% must actually have NEGATIVE driver's for the math to work out on your claim. Or maybe it isn't just a phenomenon limited the rich places.
digdugdirk 4y ago
I'd also be curious to see an inflation adjusted cost of use+ownership model for the average car owner. Cars are getting more complicated, and manufacturers are almost forcing owners to take them to a dealership for any kind of service. I'm generally handy and usually perform my own maintenance on my vehicles. As such, I tend to drive 10-20 year old Japanese vehicles. I remember once when I confidently told my partner that I'd swap their burnt out headlight bulb, no problem. Imagine my surprise when I found out that a 2010ish GM sedan recommended taking the front bumper off to access the headlight housing. If every little thing that goes wrong requires a multi-hundred dollar maintenance bill at a minimum, it's no wonder people want a viable alternative.
- fundad 4y ago
  Exactly, previous generations had more of our income to spend.
- galangalalgol 4y ago
  My 2001 GM sedan recommended the same thing. I managed to cram it in.
- zdragnar 4y ago
  Maintenance difficulty varies a lot by make and model. Doing anything on a mini Cooper is an exercise in sheet frustration. A Honda Civic is a breeze. In fact, it should probably be no surprise that Toyota and Honda typically fill out the entire top end of the "easy to maintain" spectrum, and American and European brands the other end.
  - dsfyu404ed 4y ago
    Model to model variance is far, far, far larger than brand to brand variance. You don't wanna have to work on 10lb of shit in a 5lb sack no matter who's badge is on the grill.
CalRobert 4y ago
We made it illegal to build nice neighborhoods, so the existing ones got very expensive. https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2021/11/3/our-self-imposed-scarcity-of-nice-places https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2021/11/3/our-self-impos...
michaelt 4y ago
> The article specifies rich, maybe beacuse, at least in the US, only the rich can afford to live in places where cars aren't strictly necessary? I assumed it was because countries like India and China are following different trends - lower initial car ownership rates, more two-wheelers on the road, but a growing middle class.
abeppu 4y ago
The article jumps from talking about teenagers to talking about people under 40. I think different factors are at play. Among teens, their basic needs are often already met by their family, teens are less likely to work than a generation ago, and a lot of their interaction is online anyway. Teen physical independence dropped for other reasons and the appeal of cars went with it. For adults I think you're right about only high income people being able to live in neighborhoods with close amenities, but also reliance on delivery services, Uber/Lyft are also ways that high income lifestyle can make you dependent on cars while not owning one yourself.
- chasd00 4y ago
  In college (90s) I dated a 19 year old who didn’t have a drivers license (this was in ft. Worth tx). It blew me away, she just shrugged and said “I never really needed it”. She was ridiculously bright and had that glow that truly remarkable people do. I guess she was just ahead of the curve. /well dating me does cause me to question her decision making ability now that I think about it heh

dsfyu404ed 4y ago

The rhetoric and trends around transportation seem to be reflective of the increasing bifurcation (both economically and socially) of society in general.

HeckFeck 4y ago

This is the situation where I live too, in a non-London part of the UK. There are buses and trains but they mostly just link you to the larger cities, outside of the cities it isn't a viable replacement for car ownership. Also if you're planning to have a family, a car is essential. Herding children on packed public transport is a no-no. I can imagine it being easier to walk with children if you're living in high trust communities where all amenities are available within walking distance, but that might also be a wealth thing too.

freddie_mercury 4y ago

The article cites national statistics. Is your argument that those national statistics are being driven entirely by changes in rich cities? That the changes in driving habits have been so large that it drags down the bottom 60%. The article says that in 1997 43% of 16-year olds had a driver's licence but by 2020 it had fallee to 20%. Since you're claiming that's entirely driven by the richest 40% let's do some simple math to quantify the implications of your claim. If richest 40% of 16 year olds had 0 driver's licences... Not a single one in the entire country... Then the national rate would have fallen to 25% not 20%. So the richest 40% must actually have NEGATIVE driver's for the math to work out on your claim. Or maybe it isn't just a phenomenon limited the rich places.

digdugdirk 4y ago

I'd also be curious to see an inflation adjusted cost of use+ownership model for the average car owner. Cars are getting more complicated, and manufacturers are almost forcing owners to take them to a dealership for any kind of service. I'm generally handy and usually perform my own maintenance on my vehicles. As such, I tend to drive 10-20 year old Japanese vehicles. I remember once when I confidently told my partner that I'd swap their burnt out headlight bulb, no problem. Imagine my surprise when I found out that a 2010ish GM sedan recommended taking the front bumper off to access the headlight housing. If every little thing that goes wrong requires a multi-hundred dollar maintenance bill at a minimum, it's no wonder people want a viable alternative.

fundad 4y ago
Exactly, previous generations had more of our income to spend.
galangalalgol 4y ago
My 2001 GM sedan recommended the same thing. I managed to cram it in.
zdragnar 4y ago
Maintenance difficulty varies a lot by make and model. Doing anything on a mini Cooper is an exercise in sheet frustration. A Honda Civic is a breeze. In fact, it should probably be no surprise that Toyota and Honda typically fill out the entire top end of the "easy to maintain" spectrum, and American and European brands the other end.
- dsfyu404ed 4y ago
  Model to model variance is far, far, far larger than brand to brand variance. You don't wanna have to work on 10lb of shit in a 5lb sack no matter who's badge is on the grill.

CalRobert 4y ago

We made it illegal to build nice neighborhoods, so the existing ones got very expensive. https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2021/11/3/our-self-imposed-scarcity-of-nice-places https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2021/11/3/our-self-impos...

michaelt 4y ago

> The article specifies rich, maybe beacuse, at least in the US, only the rich can afford to live in places where cars aren't strictly necessary? I assumed it was because countries like India and China are following different trends - lower initial car ownership rates, more two-wheelers on the road, but a growing middle class.

abeppu 4y ago

The article jumps from talking about teenagers to talking about people under 40. I think different factors are at play. Among teens, their basic needs are often already met by their family, teens are less likely to work than a generation ago, and a lot of their interaction is online anyway. Teen physical independence dropped for other reasons and the appeal of cars went with it. For adults I think you're right about only high income people being able to live in neighborhoods with close amenities, but also reliance on delivery services, Uber/Lyft are also ways that high income lifestyle can make you dependent on cars while not owning one yourself.

chasd00 4y ago
In college (90s) I dated a 19 year old who didn’t have a drivers license (this was in ft. Worth tx). It blew me away, she just shrugged and said “I never really needed it”. She was ridiculously bright and had that glow that truly remarkable people do. I guess she was just ahead of the curve. /well dating me does cause me to question her decision making ability now that I think about it heh