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AI will be a major productivity enhancer. The things that make programming interesting will be what programmers focus on in the future. There's so much potentia

by jasfi 4y ago

AI will be a major productivity enhancer. The things that make programming interesting will be what programmers focus on in the future. There's so much potential software that could be written that I don't think that the number of programmers will decrease at all.

mbork_pl 4y ago
This may be true, and it worries me. I have a (completely unproven) conjecture that things that make programming boring (like writing boilerplate code) are more or less things that let us avoid burnout. How many hours per day can you stay focused on difficult (or at least non-boring) problems? And for how many years? Whenever someone says "AI = productivity enhancer", I hear "AI = burnout accelerator".
- jasfi 4y ago
  Burnout has different causes. For burnout because of intense work, it could be that the movement to reduce the number of hours we work will come at the right time. 4 day work weeks at 100%, for example. Lots of people experience burnout because writing boring code can be mind-numbing. Then there are people factors, such as a bad manager. Perhaps AI can give us more understanding management?
- pydry 4y ago
  IME burnout is neither about boilerplate or traditional "interesting" problems, it's about "somebody else didn't do their job right" problems like the infamous "why can't I just serve 5 terabytes?" story or toxic work cultures. https://rachelbythebay.com/w/2021/10/30/5tb/ https://rachelbythebay.com/w/2021/10/30/5tb/ If it takes away the boilerplate and the interesting problems leaving us with just with 5 TB problems then yeah, burnout city.
pydry 4y ago
If programmer numbers decrease it won't be as a result of running out of things to code or AI, it'll be as a result of market consolidation within a few, extremely powerful firms who can squash most competitors like bugs. Like the US auto market - a once thriving ecosystem of fiercely competing innovative small businesses consolidated into 3 vertically integrated firms who now think innovation is building a slightly bigger truck. Of course, they'll probably blame it on AI coz a story about the inevitable march of technological progress invites less government oversight of the abuse of market power, and we will no doubt be plied with plausible sounding stories to that effect.
agentultra 4y ago
> AI will be a major productivity enhancer. This worries me. The problem of programming isn't that we're too slow at writing code. It's that we're not thinking critically enough about the problems we're solving. And the way we approach programming is to not fully understand what we're doing and derive joy from fixing the result of our neglect later on. TFA touches on this a little but doesn't dive in deep: how do you know that your software does what you think it does? In such a small example, a world renown researcher missed an error! Several people did. In their current state, LLM's will gleefully give you wrong answers as if they're 100% correct and it is now your job to verify they are correct. Most programmers do not know how to write a proof or other sort of formally verifiable specification. How will they know that the code they are about to commit is correct? For now, LLM's aren't capable of mathematical reasoning. You can't prompt it for a piece of code and then ask it to demonstrate it's reasoning or prove to you why the change is correct with regards to your specifications. And to make matters worse, humans are terrible at finding errors in code. Empirical studies on large scale informal code review suggest that humans can only reduce error rates when reviewing somewhere in the realm of 200LOC every couple of hours. We're not effective at finding errors to begin with and our abilities drop precipitously if we read too much code. Now we're going to have an assistant that generates possibly correct code and we're going to have to proof-read hundreds of lines? This does not seem like a good use of time or enhancing my productivity. I think we need to wait until we can get ML models that understand proof tactics and kernels to help automate proofs. I would be much more willing to accept code from a bot that can demonstrate its reasoning and isn't simply generating code based off of statistical models. Computers are nefariously discrete machines and "almost right" isn't good enough in many, many cases. What will enhance productivity, in my humble opinion, are better languages that let us write more precise specifications and can derive the code for us.
- nomel 4y ago
  > I think we need to wait until I think we should take advantage of any improvements we can get, that result in a net gain, for the individual. Programming is a practical endeavor. There’s no need to wait.
  - 4y ago

by jasfi 4y ago

mbork_pl 4y ago

This may be true, and it worries me. I have a (completely unproven) conjecture that things that make programming boring (like writing boilerplate code) are more or less things that let us avoid burnout. How many hours per day can you stay focused on difficult (or at least non-boring) problems? And for how many years? Whenever someone says "AI = productivity enhancer", I hear "AI = burnout accelerator".

jasfi 4y ago
Burnout has different causes. For burnout because of intense work, it could be that the movement to reduce the number of hours we work will come at the right time. 4 day work weeks at 100%, for example. Lots of people experience burnout because writing boring code can be mind-numbing. Then there are people factors, such as a bad manager. Perhaps AI can give us more understanding management?
pydry 4y ago
IME burnout is neither about boilerplate or traditional "interesting" problems, it's about "somebody else didn't do their job right" problems like the infamous "why can't I just serve 5 terabytes?" story or toxic work cultures. https://rachelbythebay.com/w/2021/10/30/5tb/ https://rachelbythebay.com/w/2021/10/30/5tb/ If it takes away the boilerplate and the interesting problems leaving us with just with 5 TB problems then yeah, burnout city.

pydry 4y ago

If programmer numbers decrease it won't be as a result of running out of things to code or AI, it'll be as a result of market consolidation within a few, extremely powerful firms who can squash most competitors like bugs. Like the US auto market - a once thriving ecosystem of fiercely competing innovative small businesses consolidated into 3 vertically integrated firms who now think innovation is building a slightly bigger truck. Of course, they'll probably blame it on AI coz a story about the inevitable march of technological progress invites less government oversight of the abuse of market power, and we will no doubt be plied with plausible sounding stories to that effect.

agentultra 4y ago

> AI will be a major productivity enhancer. This worries me. The problem of programming isn't that we're too slow at writing code. It's that we're not thinking critically enough about the problems we're solving. And the way we approach programming is to not fully understand what we're doing and derive joy from fixing the result of our neglect later on. TFA touches on this a little but doesn't dive in deep: how do you know that your software does what you think it does? In such a small example, a world renown researcher missed an error! Several people did. In their current state, LLM's will gleefully give you wrong answers as if they're 100% correct and it is now your job to verify they are correct. Most programmers do not know how to write a proof or other sort of formally verifiable specification. How will they know that the code they are about to commit is correct? For now, LLM's aren't capable of mathematical reasoning. You can't prompt it for a piece of code and then ask it to demonstrate it's reasoning or prove to you why the change is correct with regards to your specifications. And to make matters worse, humans are terrible at finding errors in code. Empirical studies on large scale informal code review suggest that humans can only reduce error rates when reviewing somewhere in the realm of 200LOC every couple of hours. We're not effective at finding errors to begin with and our abilities drop precipitously if we read too much code. Now we're going to have an assistant that generates possibly correct code and we're going to have to proof-read hundreds of lines? This does not seem like a good use of time or enhancing my productivity. I think we need to wait until we can get ML models that understand proof tactics and kernels to help automate proofs. I would be much more willing to accept code from a bot that can demonstrate its reasoning and isn't simply generating code based off of statistical models. Computers are nefariously discrete machines and "almost right" isn't good enough in many, many cases. What will enhance productivity, in my humble opinion, are better languages that let us write more precise specifications and can derive the code for us.

nomel 4y ago
> I think we need to wait until I think we should take advantage of any improvements we can get, that result in a net gain, for the individual. Programming is a practical endeavor. There’s no need to wait.
- 4y ago