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The pipeline is not completely destroyed. It could be repaired. Putin attacked the Ukraine and used Energy Dependence as a weapon against Europe. Russia bought

by lispm 4y ago

The pipeline is not completely destroyed. It could be repaired. Putin attacked the Ukraine and used Energy Dependence as a weapon against Europe. Russia bought energy companies. Russia influenced energy politics and politics in general in these countries. Russia reduced the storage and flow of natural gas before the invasion and prepared it to be used as a political instrument in this war, which is not just a war against the Ukraine, but a war against the West (US, EU, NATO, ...). Energy is one of Russias main weapons against Europe in its expansion politics towards the west. One would be naive to underestimate the will and evil of Putin to use his weapons, to influence European politics - for example by inducing fear in the population because of energy supply shortages. There is plenty further escalation possible. Putin thought that the Ukraine would fall easily into his hands, Controlling the Energy supplies then would be his many insurance. Now he is in a lengthy war against the Ukraine and he needs to instrument more pressure, like creating fear and panic in the western europe population, which could force western politics to make compromises. Russia still has the gas&oil, it has other pipelines and enough existing or future customers. In a conflict the value of this goes up. Temporarily blowing up a pipeline is only increasing this value.

lispm 4y ago
Let me add: the blown-up pipelines were three of four newly built. One of the four is not damaged. The damage to the other three pipelines was only in a small area. The pipelines are repairable. The pipeline was mainly a project of Russia and Germany, meant to supply natural gas to German markets (and beyond). The pipelines were not in use, yet. There was zero chance that the pipelines would go in use in the next decade, given the political situation.
- foverzar 4y ago
  > The pipelines are repairable That is really doubtful, especially at this point when they've been full of seawater for so long. > The pipelines were not in use, yet. NS1 was operational for years, and NS2 was technically too: all the equipment was running and the pipe was pressurized - just turn the tap on. > There was zero chance that the pipelines would go in use in the next decade, given the political situation. I don't think that's fair. Political situation can change easily. Lap journalists could just dust off the ol' narrative of "Ukraine is full of nazis", which was prevalent in pro-western media before the war gone hot and all of this suddenly became "Russian propaganda"
  - lispm 4y ago
    > That is really doubtful, especially at this point when they've been full of seawater for so long. They have coating inside. This prevents corrosion for some time. Earlier this year there were reports of a cost estimate of $500 million and a time duration of one year for a repair. One of the pipelines hasn't been damaged, but maybe needs some equipment replaced -> pumps. > NS1 was operational for years "Was". It wasn't delivering natural gas when the explosion happened. Russia had stopped the gas transport already. Various reasons were given - technical problems and the sanctions against Russia. There was never any natural gas delivered via NS2. NS1 was stopped end of August 2022. If Russia ever wants to sell natural gas (again) via these pipelines , then it should stop their brutal war on the Ukraine NOW. > I don't think that's fair. It is. There is zero chance that Germany will take any gas delivered via these pipelines without a full political change in Russia.
    - foverzar 4y ago
      > Earlier this year there were reports of a cost estimate of $500 million and a time duration of one year for a repair. So basically like building the pipe part anew. > There was never any natural gas delivered via NS2 Technically there was. It was pressurized. Meaning it was full of gas delivered up to the tap on the German side. > If Russia ever wants to sell natural gas (again) via these pipelines Gosh, I really hope not. I also hope it stops pumping gas through Ukraine and doesn't waste time on Turkish gas hub. Dealing with Europe who acts like this is some kind of privilege is a waste, IMO. > It is. There is zero chance that Germany will take any gas delivered via these pipelines You are being categorical at the expense of being realistic. It's been gorging on gas from these pipelines like crazy, while filling the reserves. And it still uses Russian gas via various "latvian blend" like schemes, as Russia continues to pay a huge-ass fee to Ukraine for using old soviet huge-ass pipeline. This implies a huge-ass demand on the other side of that pipe. (It's actually quite fun to observe reiteration of history as the whole anti-NS1/2 deal is so hugely similar to anti-Ukrainian pipeline back in the Soviet era)
      - lispm 4y ago
        > So basically like building the pipe part anew. No, the cost of the Northstream 2 alone was roughly $11 billion. Much of the pipeline could be used, the explosion was only in a small region. > Technically there was. It was pressurized. Meaning it was full of gas delivered up to the tap on the German side. It was filled, but nothing was delivered into Germany. There was also no permission given to do that. > Dealing with Europe who acts like this is some kind of privilege is a waste, IMO. Russia has all the responsibility. They attacked the Ukraine. It's their choice. It has nothing to do with a 'privilege'. > You are being categorical at the expense of being realistic. Realistically Russia has removed themselves from being someone who we want to trade with for at least a decade. They are not a partner and they are not reliable. Russia started a war against not only the Ukraine, but also against the rest of Europe and they used the energy dependency as a weapon. Russia was preparing for the war for some time.

by lispm 4y ago

lispm 4y ago

Let me add: the blown-up pipelines were three of four newly built. One of the four is not damaged. The damage to the other three pipelines was only in a small area. The pipelines are repairable. The pipeline was mainly a project of Russia and Germany, meant to supply natural gas to German markets (and beyond). The pipelines were not in use, yet. There was zero chance that the pipelines would go in use in the next decade, given the political situation.

foverzar 4y ago
> The pipelines are repairable That is really doubtful, especially at this point when they've been full of seawater for so long. > The pipelines were not in use, yet. NS1 was operational for years, and NS2 was technically too: all the equipment was running and the pipe was pressurized - just turn the tap on. > There was zero chance that the pipelines would go in use in the next decade, given the political situation. I don't think that's fair. Political situation can change easily. Lap journalists could just dust off the ol' narrative of "Ukraine is full of nazis", which was prevalent in pro-western media before the war gone hot and all of this suddenly became "Russian propaganda"
- lispm 4y ago
  > That is really doubtful, especially at this point when they've been full of seawater for so long. They have coating inside. This prevents corrosion for some time. Earlier this year there were reports of a cost estimate of $500 million and a time duration of one year for a repair. One of the pipelines hasn't been damaged, but maybe needs some equipment replaced -> pumps. > NS1 was operational for years "Was". It wasn't delivering natural gas when the explosion happened. Russia had stopped the gas transport already. Various reasons were given - technical problems and the sanctions against Russia. There was never any natural gas delivered via NS2. NS1 was stopped end of August 2022. If Russia ever wants to sell natural gas (again) via these pipelines , then it should stop their brutal war on the Ukraine NOW. > I don't think that's fair. It is. There is zero chance that Germany will take any gas delivered via these pipelines without a full political change in Russia.
  - foverzar 4y ago
    > Earlier this year there were reports of a cost estimate of $500 million and a time duration of one year for a repair. So basically like building the pipe part anew. > There was never any natural gas delivered via NS2 Technically there was. It was pressurized. Meaning it was full of gas delivered up to the tap on the German side. > If Russia ever wants to sell natural gas (again) via these pipelines Gosh, I really hope not. I also hope it stops pumping gas through Ukraine and doesn't waste time on Turkish gas hub. Dealing with Europe who acts like this is some kind of privilege is a waste, IMO. > It is. There is zero chance that Germany will take any gas delivered via these pipelines You are being categorical at the expense of being realistic. It's been gorging on gas from these pipelines like crazy, while filling the reserves. And it still uses Russian gas via various "latvian blend" like schemes, as Russia continues to pay a huge-ass fee to Ukraine for using old soviet huge-ass pipeline. This implies a huge-ass demand on the other side of that pipe. (It's actually quite fun to observe reiteration of history as the whole anti-NS1/2 deal is so hugely similar to anti-Ukrainian pipeline back in the Soviet era)
    - lispm 4y ago
      > So basically like building the pipe part anew. No, the cost of the Northstream 2 alone was roughly $11 billion. Much of the pipeline could be used, the explosion was only in a small region. > Technically there was. It was pressurized. Meaning it was full of gas delivered up to the tap on the German side. It was filled, but nothing was delivered into Germany. There was also no permission given to do that. > Dealing with Europe who acts like this is some kind of privilege is a waste, IMO. Russia has all the responsibility. They attacked the Ukraine. It's their choice. It has nothing to do with a 'privilege'. > You are being categorical at the expense of being realistic. Realistically Russia has removed themselves from being someone who we want to trade with for at least a decade. They are not a partner and they are not reliable. Russia started a war against not only the Ukraine, but also against the rest of Europe and they used the energy dependency as a weapon. Russia was preparing for the war for some time.