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There’s a very straightforward and plausible rationale for Russia (specifically, Putin) to do it: coup-proofing by forced commitment to not turning the oil back

There’s a very straightforward and plausible rationale for Russia (specifically, Putin) to do it: coup-proofing by forced commitment to not turning the oil back on, like breaking your own steering wheel in a game of chicken and throwing it out the window. There are presumably elites in Russia who would like to see the war end and go back to business-as-usual so they can get their assets and incomes back, and blowing up the pipeline signals to them “that’s not happening. Total commitment is the only option, so don’t even bother trying to replace the current leadership.” Is this definitely what happened? Of course not, we don’t know who did it. But it is a perfectly coherent and plausible claim, and so your hyperbolic statements about “what idiot really believes…” etc. only serve to demonstrate that you haven’t bothered learning about anyone’s position other than yours, and thus that you yourself probably shouldn’t be listened to.

foverzar 4y ago
> There’s a very straightforward and plausible rationale for Russia (specifically, Putin) to do it: coup-proofing by forced commitment to not turning the oil back on, like breaking your own steering wheel in a game of chicken and throwing it out the window. And there is an even more straightforward debunking of that version: a) these pipelines have nothing to do with oil, they pipe gas b) these pipelines are only a fraction of all the gas transportation infrastructure: there is a huge pipeline in Ukraine that dwarfs NS1/2 combined (and Ukraine happily accepts Russian money as a transportation fee, they've even raised it recently), there is a pipeline in Belarus, there is Yamal, and there is TurkStream.
ballenf 4y ago
That is the strongest case, but I'm still confused by the seemingly conflicting claim that Putin is susceptible to a coup but only if there's a pipeline. Don't Russian elites have nearly as much to lose from this war continuing with or without a pipeline? What exactly would the pipeline change in the these elites calculus, willingness or ability to stage a successful coup? The pipeline repair cost estimates are much lower than the cost of an ongoing war plus oil embargoes. That is, a coup now benefits these elites roughly as much as it would have with a pipeline.
- shagie 4y ago
  The remaining pipelines for Western Europe go through Belarus and Ukraine. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pressure-change-on-natural-gas-pipeline/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pre... https://coffeeordie.com/russia-relies-on-ukrainian-pipelines https://coffeeordie.com/russia-relies-on-ukrainian-pipelines The Russia - Ukraine - Slovakia / Poland route is not reliable. https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023-russia-energy-profile-energy-flows-to-europe-decrease-while-increase-to-india-and-china-analysis/ https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023-russia-energy-profile... > In May 2022, Ukraine suspended operations at the Sokhranivka measuring station and the Novopskov compressor station, which are part of the Soyuz and Brotherhood pipeline system, because of interference by Russian forces. https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/ukraine-cease-russian-gas-transit/ https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/ukraine-cease-russi... > In a press statement, the firm said: “Moreover, the interference of the occupying forces in technical processes and changes in the modes of operation of GTS facilities, including unauthorised gas offtakes from the gas transit flows, endangered the stability and safety of the entire Ukrainian gas transportation system.” --- From a layperson trying to channel Russian leadership, removing Nord stream would mean that the only way for Western Europe to get natural gas is through stability in Ukraine and an easing of tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Russian leadership obviously has their preferred way of accomplishing this. My crystal ball also says that even after the war ends in the favor of Ukraine, that gas pipeline will not be available because of the tensions and the... lets call it "unreliable partnership" that exists ( https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pressure-change-on-natural-gas-pipeline/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pre... ) Note that the gas pipeline through Belarus to Poland has also been turned off. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal–Europe_pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal–Europe_pipeline > On 26 April 2022, Gazprom announced it would stop delivering natural gas to Poland via the Yamal–Europe pipeline, as well as to Bulgaria, as both countries had rejected Russia's demand that payments for gas be made in Russian rubles - a demand allegedly constituting breach of contract. Without the Nord Stream, Yamal, Soyuz/Brotherhood; Southern Europe (Greece, Romania, Italy) are being tempted with gas supplies from Russia by way of Turkey. Russia is additionally trying to tempt Turkey into being its energy hub ( https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-can-become-an-energy-hub-but-not-by-going-all-in-on-russian-gas/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-ca... ) with promises of cheap gas, free money (transit fees for the pipeline), and a dependence on Russia for that part of the economy.
earthboundkid 4y ago
The most likely coup scenario right now in Russia is that the head of the Wagner Group deposes Putin from the right.

foverzar 4y ago

> There’s a very straightforward and plausible rationale for Russia (specifically, Putin) to do it: coup-proofing by forced commitment to not turning the oil back on, like breaking your own steering wheel in a game of chicken and throwing it out the window. And there is an even more straightforward debunking of that version: a) these pipelines have nothing to do with oil, they pipe gas b) these pipelines are only a fraction of all the gas transportation infrastructure: there is a huge pipeline in Ukraine that dwarfs NS1/2 combined (and Ukraine happily accepts Russian money as a transportation fee, they've even raised it recently), there is a pipeline in Belarus, there is Yamal, and there is TurkStream.

ballenf 4y ago

That is the strongest case, but I'm still confused by the seemingly conflicting claim that Putin is susceptible to a coup but only if there's a pipeline. Don't Russian elites have nearly as much to lose from this war continuing with or without a pipeline? What exactly would the pipeline change in the these elites calculus, willingness or ability to stage a successful coup? The pipeline repair cost estimates are much lower than the cost of an ongoing war plus oil embargoes. That is, a coup now benefits these elites roughly as much as it would have with a pipeline.

shagie 4y ago
The remaining pipelines for Western Europe go through Belarus and Ukraine. https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pressure-change-on-natural-gas-pipeline/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pre... https://coffeeordie.com/russia-relies-on-ukrainian-pipelines https://coffeeordie.com/russia-relies-on-ukrainian-pipelines The Russia - Ukraine - Slovakia / Poland route is not reliable. https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023-russia-energy-profile-energy-flows-to-europe-decrease-while-increase-to-india-and-china-analysis/ https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023-russia-energy-profile... > In May 2022, Ukraine suspended operations at the Sokhranivka measuring station and the Novopskov compressor station, which are part of the Soyuz and Brotherhood pipeline system, because of interference by Russian forces. https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/ukraine-cease-russian-gas-transit/ https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/ukraine-cease-russi... > In a press statement, the firm said: “Moreover, the interference of the occupying forces in technical processes and changes in the modes of operation of GTS facilities, including unauthorised gas offtakes from the gas transit flows, endangered the stability and safety of the entire Ukrainian gas transportation system.” --- From a layperson trying to channel Russian leadership, removing Nord stream would mean that the only way for Western Europe to get natural gas is through stability in Ukraine and an easing of tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Russian leadership obviously has their preferred way of accomplishing this. My crystal ball also says that even after the war ends in the favor of Ukraine, that gas pipeline will not be available because of the tensions and the... lets call it "unreliable partnership" that exists ( https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pressure-change-on-natural-gas-pipeline/ https://www.naturalgasintel.com/ukraine-warns-of-gazprom-pre... ) Note that the gas pipeline through Belarus to Poland has also been turned off. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal–Europe_pipeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yamal–Europe_pipeline > On 26 April 2022, Gazprom announced it would stop delivering natural gas to Poland via the Yamal–Europe pipeline, as well as to Bulgaria, as both countries had rejected Russia's demand that payments for gas be made in Russian rubles - a demand allegedly constituting breach of contract. Without the Nord Stream, Yamal, Soyuz/Brotherhood; Southern Europe (Greece, Romania, Italy) are being tempted with gas supplies from Russia by way of Turkey. Russia is additionally trying to tempt Turkey into being its energy hub ( https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-can-become-an-energy-hub-but-not-by-going-all-in-on-russian-gas/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/turkeysource/turkey-ca... ) with promises of cheap gas, free money (transit fees for the pipeline), and a dependence on Russia for that part of the economy.

earthboundkid 4y ago

The most likely coup scenario right now in Russia is that the head of the Wagner Group deposes Putin from the right.