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I hadn't heard of that, interesting. But curious, (1) are the penalties greater than the cost of the pipeline + all foregone future revenue? (2) Do they care? W

I hadn't heard of that, interesting. But curious, (1) are the penalties greater than the cost of the pipeline + all foregone future revenue? (2) Do they care? Whoever could possibly try to "penalize" Russia for contract violation, is currently already pretty much engaged in a hot war with it, couldn't really get worse in the moment, can it?

ceejayoz 4y ago
The cost of the pipeline was likely a sunk cost before it actually got sunk. Even intact, there’d be little chance of it being activated anytime soon. Penalties can be taken out of Gazprom holdings abroad. There’s already discussion of giving sanctioned seized Russian assets to Ukraine.
- xyzelement 4y ago
  So I still fail to see the logic. If Russian assets are being seized anyway, what's the benefit to Russia to destroying the physical pipeline they control and could choose to use in the future?
  - ceejayoz 4y ago
    The value of an unusable pipeline is zero. Worse than zero, if you have to maintain it. Gazprom wasn’t fully sanctioned at the time, and seized assets can be returned later. Penalties would eat into that. And again, sowing discord by accusing someone else probably is worth something.
mint2 4y ago
“Whoever could possibly try to "penalize" Russia for contract violation, is currently already pretty much engaged in a hot war with it” So they’re at war with their only potential customers. Sounds like the pipeline has zero commercially value to Russia since it’s unlikely anyone would buy the gas. So there’s no monetary concern to stop Russia doing whatever with it.
- xyzelement 4y ago
  Pipeline has zero current commercial value. It has potential non zero future commercial value. And there's no benefit to destroying it. Why would they have?
  - mint2 4y ago
    A. Yes there’s a slight chance that it has future commercial value decades in the future, but it seems unlikely. B. Can you read Putin’s mind? Actually Invading Ukraine was a fantastically ill-thought endeavor, but that happened. Was Putin grossly misinformed and out of touch reality or what? But now Putin/Russia won’t do anything that certain hackernews commenters don’t think would make sense? That is an interesting take. Also Why are commenters still saying there is no potential benefit to Russia destroying it? It’s already been pointed out that there are multiple ways it could help Russia. It’s pretty easy to come up with multiple speculative ways destroying it had chances of providing more value over the next decade than doing maintenance on an unusable pipeline. Just look at how some accuse the USA of doing it while being unable to conceive that Russia could have done it. if Russia did it then that’s exactly what they wanted. Unfortunately that accusation is reserved mostly to internet pundits so that’s been a flop for Russia. Everything is speculation at the moment. Which means whoever did it at least succeeded fantastically in that regards.

ceejayoz 4y ago

The cost of the pipeline was likely a sunk cost before it actually got sunk. Even intact, there’d be little chance of it being activated anytime soon. Penalties can be taken out of Gazprom holdings abroad. There’s already discussion of giving sanctioned seized Russian assets to Ukraine.

xyzelement 4y ago
So I still fail to see the logic. If Russian assets are being seized anyway, what's the benefit to Russia to destroying the physical pipeline they control and could choose to use in the future?
- ceejayoz 4y ago
  The value of an unusable pipeline is zero. Worse than zero, if you have to maintain it. Gazprom wasn’t fully sanctioned at the time, and seized assets can be returned later. Penalties would eat into that. And again, sowing discord by accusing someone else probably is worth something.

mint2 4y ago

“Whoever could possibly try to "penalize" Russia for contract violation, is currently already pretty much engaged in a hot war with it” So they’re at war with their only potential customers. Sounds like the pipeline has zero commercially value to Russia since it’s unlikely anyone would buy the gas. So there’s no monetary concern to stop Russia doing whatever with it.

xyzelement 4y ago
Pipeline has zero current commercial value. It has potential non zero future commercial value. And there's no benefit to destroying it. Why would they have?
- mint2 4y ago
  A. Yes there’s a slight chance that it has future commercial value decades in the future, but it seems unlikely. B. Can you read Putin’s mind? Actually Invading Ukraine was a fantastically ill-thought endeavor, but that happened. Was Putin grossly misinformed and out of touch reality or what? But now Putin/Russia won’t do anything that certain hackernews commenters don’t think would make sense? That is an interesting take. Also Why are commenters still saying there is no potential benefit to Russia destroying it? It’s already been pointed out that there are multiple ways it could help Russia. It’s pretty easy to come up with multiple speculative ways destroying it had chances of providing more value over the next decade than doing maintenance on an unusable pipeline. Just look at how some accuse the USA of doing it while being unable to conceive that Russia could have done it. if Russia did it then that’s exactly what they wanted. Unfortunately that accusation is reserved mostly to internet pundits so that’s been a flop for Russia. Everything is speculation at the moment. Which means whoever did it at least succeeded fantastically in that regards.