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I think the 2 reasons people don't suspect Ukraine is that: a) it seems kinda implausible they have ability to blow up the pipe-line, nevermind to do so withou

I think the 2 reasons people don't suspect Ukraine is that: a) it seems kinda implausible they have ability to blow up the pipe-line, nevermind to do so without being detected in what has to be the most cloesly monitored body of water on the planet. b) Germany was already backing them. Blowing up the pipeline might make Germany marginally less likely to backslide, but if Ukraine were caught blowing up the pipeline, Germany would almost certainly turn against them. The risk/reward doesn't really make sense. (FWIW, I think the most likely suspect is the one that doesn't usually get mentioned, that Germany blew it up to demonstrate their resolve regarding Russian sanctions).

hutzlibu 4y ago
(FWIW, I think the most likely suspect is the one that doesn't usually get mentioned, that Germany blew it up to demonstrate their resolve regarding Russian sanctions) This is very unlikely, the german government simply never would have the balls to do anything remotely drastic. But they likely would close their eyes, if someone else would do it.
- fishnchips 4y ago
  Funny, as a Pole my 1st reaction was "damn our spooks finally did a good job". I was (and still am) very surprised nobody was even considering Poland as a perpetrator.
  - jdougan 4y ago
    I know, right. Historical beefs with both Germany and Russia, a history of competent intelligence organizations, a quality military, and obvious current motivations. Yet, every time I bring up Poland as an option, usually I just get ignored. The time I do get a response, it is usually some story about how only the US has the capability, which is total BS.
    - fishnchips 4y ago
      Historical grievances aside, no middleman likes being cut out.
      - mikrotikker 4y ago
        Funny you should say that: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gas-starts-flowing-poland-through-new-baltic-pipe-pipeline-2022-10-01/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gas-starts-flowing-po... "Gas starts flowing to Poland through new Baltic Pipe pipeline"
      - jdougan 4y ago
        That was intended to come under current motivations, but I should have been more explicit. What else are the other Poles around you annoyed about in this situation? Do most think Polish agencies were responsible?
        fishnchips 4y ago
        Most folks I know believe it was the US. They think that our leadership lacks the cojones and our military lacks the capability. I believe neither to be true, though I’d imagine there must have been an implicit approval from major NATO partners. Take France for example - Germany getting cheap fossil fuels isn’t exactly great for the French economy.
floxy 4y ago
>a) it seems kinda implausible they have ability to blow up the pipe-line, nevermind to do so without being detected in what has to be the most closely monitored body of water on the planet. Is there a reason it couldn't have been a couple of zodiac boats? I can't imagine the entire Baltic sea is so well monitored that every craft of any size is tracked, even under the cover of darkness. Seems like a large moving van sized vehicle could hold a couple of deflated rafts, and a 10 man outfit in a trek across Poland.

hutzlibu 4y ago

(FWIW, I think the most likely suspect is the one that doesn't usually get mentioned, that Germany blew it up to demonstrate their resolve regarding Russian sanctions) This is very unlikely, the german government simply never would have the balls to do anything remotely drastic. But they likely would close their eyes, if someone else would do it.

fishnchips 4y ago
Funny, as a Pole my 1st reaction was "damn our spooks finally did a good job". I was (and still am) very surprised nobody was even considering Poland as a perpetrator.
- jdougan 4y ago
  I know, right. Historical beefs with both Germany and Russia, a history of competent intelligence organizations, a quality military, and obvious current motivations. Yet, every time I bring up Poland as an option, usually I just get ignored. The time I do get a response, it is usually some story about how only the US has the capability, which is total BS.
  - fishnchips 4y ago
    Historical grievances aside, no middleman likes being cut out.
    - mikrotikker 4y ago
      Funny you should say that: https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gas-starts-flowing-poland-through-new-baltic-pipe-pipeline-2022-10-01/ https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gas-starts-flowing-po... "Gas starts flowing to Poland through new Baltic Pipe pipeline"
    - jdougan 4y ago
      That was intended to come under current motivations, but I should have been more explicit. What else are the other Poles around you annoyed about in this situation? Do most think Polish agencies were responsible?
      - fishnchips 4y ago
        Most folks I know believe it was the US. They think that our leadership lacks the cojones and our military lacks the capability. I believe neither to be true, though I’d imagine there must have been an implicit approval from major NATO partners. Take France for example - Germany getting cheap fossil fuels isn’t exactly great for the French economy.

floxy 4y ago

>a) it seems kinda implausible they have ability to blow up the pipe-line, nevermind to do so without being detected in what has to be the most closely monitored body of water on the planet. Is there a reason it couldn't have been a couple of zodiac boats? I can't imagine the entire Baltic sea is so well monitored that every craft of any size is tracked, even under the cover of darkness. Seems like a large moving van sized vehicle could hold a couple of deflated rafts, and a 10 man outfit in a trek across Poland.