Uhm, a 95% re-election rate is not a 5% chance of getting fired ever. The chance of being re-elected N times is (1-0.05)^N, so the chance of not being re-elect

Uhm, a 95% re-election rate is not a 5% chance of getting fired ever. The chance of being re-elected N times is (1-0.05)^N, so the chance of not being re-elected N times is 1 - (1 - 0.05)^N. For N = 10 (a nice twenty year run in the House), that's only ~ 60% chance of being re-elected each time. For N = 15, it drops to 46%. I think that's actually pretty reasonable, you've got enough security at the beginning to allow you some latitude but not so much that you stop caring.