4 ms·

Which axiom gets you that it must have been a state actor who did it?

alienicecream 4y ago
For me it's the one where governments with the most capable intelligence agencies in the world are quiet about who committed an act of international terrorism against an important piece of industrial infrastructure at the bottom of the ocean. One largely owned by Germany, a key NATO member. If this was some eco terrorism (imagining for a moment that they would have the means to procure the explosives and expertise to blow up a concrete encased pipeline at the bottom of the sea), it would present a serious risk for oil and gas infrastructure everywhere. It would not be taken lightly.
- mannerheim 4y ago
  And Germany somehow knows who does this in your story and keeps quiet because...
- pvg 4y ago
  In 2014 there was a sabotage operation against a munitions depot in Vrbětice in the Czech republic, a NATO member. There was no official attribution for half a decade. Lack of immediate attribution as a basis for assigning responsibility seems mostly cherrypicking and vibes.
  - alienicecream 4y ago
    Valid point, but I don't think the importance and notoriety of these events are comparable.
    - pvg 4y ago
      Maybe but that's the essence of cherry-picking. It suggests that you aren't actually 'working from nothing towards plausible theories' as you think (and I'm not saying this is intentional or some sort of intellectual or moral failing, we all do this) but working backwards from a conclusion to select supporting points and counterpoints can be dismissed for not being sufficiently countery.
      - alienicecream 4y ago
        Is not cherry picking to apply relevant heuristics. I'm an average news consumer and I had never heard of your example. I doubt many people have, and probably even fewer care. It's just not as noteworthy as what happened here and that in itself is a factor in analyzing the response to it.
        tptacek 4y ago
        The fact that you hadn't heard of his example is a reason _not_ to trust your own first-principles logic, not a reason to rely on it. I'm still stuck on the idea that we're having this discussion at all, though. It's really hard for people to get past the idea that Hersh can be an absolute kook and whatever their prior beliefs about the Nord Stream incidents can still be valid. It goes in both directions. There's a comment elsewhere on this thread suggesting that, since Hersh's story is obviously fictitious (I tend to agree), it's probably the case that the US had nothing to do with the detonation. But that doesn't follow either!
        alienicecream 4y ago
        Yes, I said it was a valid point but you're overestimating it's value. The magnitude of the event matters too in judging it's response, and the Czech story is nothing by comparison. It's getting kind of tiring seeing you all over every thread in here smearing Hersh as a discredited wacko. I personally don't buy it, much less from someone who seems so invested in spreading it. I don't know what your motivation is, but please refrain from doing that in this comment chain, it's just irrelevant, thanks.
        tptacek 4y ago
        * He reported that the Vatican influences USSOCOM. * He reported that the US faked the Syrian Sarin attack. * He reported that Jewish money was behind an effort to start WW3 in Iran. * He reported that Pakistan staged the bin Laden raid. * And now he's reported an elaborate conspiracy between the US and (checks notes) Norway to blow up a pipeline, none of the details of which hold up or even make sense.

For me it's the one where governments with the most capable intelligence agencies in the world are quiet about who committed an act of international terrorism against an important piece of industrial infrastructure at the bottom of the ocean. One largely owned by Germany, a key NATO member. If this was some eco terrorism (imagining for a moment that they would have the means to procure the explosives and expertise to blow up a concrete encased pipeline at the bottom of the sea), it would present a serious risk for oil and gas infrastructure everywhere. It would not be taken lightly.

mannerheim 4y ago
And Germany somehow knows who does this in your story and keeps quiet because...
pvg 4y ago
In 2014 there was a sabotage operation against a munitions depot in Vrbětice in the Czech republic, a NATO member. There was no official attribution for half a decade. Lack of immediate attribution as a basis for assigning responsibility seems mostly cherrypicking and vibes.
- alienicecream 4y ago
  Valid point, but I don't think the importance and notoriety of these events are comparable.
  - pvg 4y ago
    Maybe but that's the essence of cherry-picking. It suggests that you aren't actually 'working from nothing towards plausible theories' as you think (and I'm not saying this is intentional or some sort of intellectual or moral failing, we all do this) but working backwards from a conclusion to select supporting points and counterpoints can be dismissed for not being sufficiently countery.
    - alienicecream 4y ago
      Is not cherry picking to apply relevant heuristics. I'm an average news consumer and I had never heard of your example. I doubt many people have, and probably even fewer care. It's just not as noteworthy as what happened here and that in itself is a factor in analyzing the response to it.
      - tptacek 4y ago
        The fact that you hadn't heard of his example is a reason _not_ to trust your own first-principles logic, not a reason to rely on it. I'm still stuck on the idea that we're having this discussion at all, though. It's really hard for people to get past the idea that Hersh can be an absolute kook and whatever their prior beliefs about the Nord Stream incidents can still be valid. It goes in both directions. There's a comment elsewhere on this thread suggesting that, since Hersh's story is obviously fictitious (I tend to agree), it's probably the case that the US had nothing to do with the detonation. But that doesn't follow either!
        alienicecream 4y ago
        Yes, I said it was a valid point but you're overestimating it's value. The magnitude of the event matters too in judging it's response, and the Czech story is nothing by comparison. It's getting kind of tiring seeing you all over every thread in here smearing Hersh as a discredited wacko. I personally don't buy it, much less from someone who seems so invested in spreading it. I don't know what your motivation is, but please refrain from doing that in this comment chain, it's just irrelevant, thanks.
        tptacek 4y ago
        * He reported that the Vatican influences USSOCOM. * He reported that the US faked the Syrian Sarin attack. * He reported that Jewish money was behind an effort to start WW3 in Iran. * He reported that Pakistan staged the bin Laden raid. * And now he's reported an elaborate conspiracy between the US and (checks notes) Norway to blow up a pipeline, none of the details of which hold up or even make sense.