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VC money is not losing buying power. Think about it like this: what is inflation, exactly? It's actually pretty hard to measure and the answer depends on what y

by rcme 4y ago

VC money is not losing buying power. Think about it like this: what is inflation, exactly? It's actually pretty hard to measure and the answer depends on what you're spending your money on. The Fed uses CPI as a proxy for inflation as felt by the average consumer. CPI uses a basket of goods and services as a measure, but really it's just an estimate. For instance, CPI might be 6.5% YoY, but if you run a restaurant, where food is a major expense, you're feeling inflation at something like 10% YoY. Now let's consider VCs. Like a restaurant, VCs spend money in a way that doesn't align with the basket of goods / weighting used for CPI. VCs spend most of their money on equity in tech companies. Equity in tech companies has actually gotten cheaper. Here is a concrete example: Stripe was valued at $95 billion in 2021. In order to buy 1% of Stripe, you'd need to spend $950 million. Now, Stripe is valued at $60B. You can buy 1% of Stripe for only $600 million. That's deflationary.

boringg 4y ago
You haven't gone through the full thought experiment. I agree tech valuations have imploded. This is a function of equity being predicated on expected returns in the future. Many reasons for tech valuations imploding - part of them -> cost of salaries to match CPI and cost trimming from other companies as inflation hits their bottom line and product sales aren't as robust. In your example the valuations are on the private market and do not replicate what the public market would pay for them because the expectations on returns are out of whack with reality. VCs bought into their own hype and started thinking that they would get absolutely bonkers returns on companies that have no ability to get the returns required to drive those valuations. This reality is because all of a sudden there is interest rates in the market and other returns elsewhere to be gained and that interest free money is gone. VCs might have better buying power of what portion of a company they can buy however the expected returns are no longer in the same ballpark as they were. As a function of inflation their exit from investments looks far worse than it did a short time ago. However what VCs are buying is future returns not necessarily company size. So if you can buy more of a company on lower returns it isn't far different from less of a company on higher returns.
- rcme 4y ago
  Just like inflation can be caused by many things, e.g. supply chain disruption and money printing, deflation can also be caused by many things, including interest rates. In fact, isn't that what the Fed wants? To lower inflation / cause deflation via higher interest rates? So yes, I agree with you: a large part of the deflation is caused by interest rates, but that's still deflation nonetheless. > So if you can buy more of a company on lower returns it isn't far different from less of a company on higher returns. There is a big difference when you're in a highly deflationary environment. Inflation and deflation can cause price spirals. In periods of high inflation, people rush to spend money because it's losing value daily, which causes prices to go even higher. In periods of deflation, the opposite happens: people hold off on spending causing further price drops. VCs are holding cash and not investing much of it because of deflationary expectations. This is causing valuations to drop even lower.
  - boringg 4y ago
    Equities are coming back to reality while the underpinnings of businesses are being hit by inflation. The equity coming back down is a function of the inflation. VCs aren't investing because the returns on the companies look particularly poor in the current macro and in a macro that has interest rates as opposed to free money.
    - rcme 4y ago
      I think we're saying the same thing with different words. I'm saying that tech equity is deflationary. You're saying the price of tech equity is going down. Those are equivalent statements. The reasoning isn't that relevant. What is "macro economic outlook" other than an expectation about the future price?

by rcme 4y ago

boringg 4y ago

You haven't gone through the full thought experiment. I agree tech valuations have imploded. This is a function of equity being predicated on expected returns in the future. Many reasons for tech valuations imploding - part of them -> cost of salaries to match CPI and cost trimming from other companies as inflation hits their bottom line and product sales aren't as robust. In your example the valuations are on the private market and do not replicate what the public market would pay for them because the expectations on returns are out of whack with reality. VCs bought into their own hype and started thinking that they would get absolutely bonkers returns on companies that have no ability to get the returns required to drive those valuations. This reality is because all of a sudden there is interest rates in the market and other returns elsewhere to be gained and that interest free money is gone. VCs might have better buying power of what portion of a company they can buy however the expected returns are no longer in the same ballpark as they were. As a function of inflation their exit from investments looks far worse than it did a short time ago. However what VCs are buying is future returns not necessarily company size. So if you can buy more of a company on lower returns it isn't far different from less of a company on higher returns.

rcme 4y ago
Just like inflation can be caused by many things, e.g. supply chain disruption and money printing, deflation can also be caused by many things, including interest rates. In fact, isn't that what the Fed wants? To lower inflation / cause deflation via higher interest rates? So yes, I agree with you: a large part of the deflation is caused by interest rates, but that's still deflation nonetheless. > So if you can buy more of a company on lower returns it isn't far different from less of a company on higher returns. There is a big difference when you're in a highly deflationary environment. Inflation and deflation can cause price spirals. In periods of high inflation, people rush to spend money because it's losing value daily, which causes prices to go even higher. In periods of deflation, the opposite happens: people hold off on spending causing further price drops. VCs are holding cash and not investing much of it because of deflationary expectations. This is causing valuations to drop even lower.
- boringg 4y ago
  Equities are coming back to reality while the underpinnings of businesses are being hit by inflation. The equity coming back down is a function of the inflation. VCs aren't investing because the returns on the companies look particularly poor in the current macro and in a macro that has interest rates as opposed to free money.
  - rcme 4y ago
    I think we're saying the same thing with different words. I'm saying that tech equity is deflationary. You're saying the price of tech equity is going down. Those are equivalent statements. The reasoning isn't that relevant. What is "macro economic outlook" other than an expectation about the future price?