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When someone can drive from Palm Springs to SF with no intervention does that not make it bullshit anymore?

by adampk 4y ago

vore 4y ago
Sure, but they can't.
onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago
If you have a 99% chance of death - 1% of people are still going to make it. You obviously don't have a 99% chance of death - but just by virtue of it being possible does not also mean it is not BS. You can drive drunk from PS to SF also. What's your point?
- RajT88 4y ago
  I know a Tesla owner. The chance of death (well, a crash anyways) is more like 1%, according to him. Those odds are good enough for the occasional trip home from a cocktail party, but hardly cost-competitive with Rideshares/Taxis. How many 9's do we need before we can say it's reliable enough to trust it? A few more, for sure.
  - rootusrootus 4y ago
    > How many 9's do we need before we can say it's reliable enough to trust it? A few more, for sure. Yeah, 1% is definitely not going to cut it. What are the odds of dying when a human is at the wheel? Something like 0.000025% if my napkin math is right and my assumptions in the right ballpark.
kube-system 4y ago
The technology is mostly fine. The bullshit is mostly the false expectations they set, and the subsequent risks they choose to take in implementation in order to minimize their expectations miss. Other driving assistance systems try to do less, but they do it honestly.
causi 4y ago
When someone can drive from Palm Springs to SF Does that mean "stay in the correct lane on the interstate and take the proper exits without hitting anything" or does that mean "begin inside your garage and end inside another garage five hundred miles away without touching anything"? The first one is nearly trivial. It stops being bullshit when they stop telling the user they need to pay attention to the road, and not one second before.
- smachiz 4y ago
  I wouldn't describe it as trivial. My Tesla would phantom brake consistently in a lot of spots - overpasses were a very big trigger. Also anytime I'd pass an exit I wasn't taking in the right lane it would veer and slow down aggressively, same with trying to speed match a car rapidly accelerating on an on ramp. Bottom line, there's absolutely nothing that isn't driver assist; everything requires a significant amount of vigilance when you aren't driving in a straight line, in the left lane, on an empty highway with no one entering and exiting.
- trinix912 4y ago
  Imagine a scenario: someone's on a bike, running down the street towards the pedestrian crossing. There's a vehicle (truck, bus...) on the left covering the view. The cyclist swiftly crosses the road, the car doesn't detect anything as there's nothing to detect (because of the truck/bus), bam! Many drivers would see the cyclist before and be very careful when passing the other vehicle (although we don't predict correctly 100% of the time either). I haven't had a chance to test any self-driving system yet so I'm legitimately interested, do those systems reliably detect such things? Not to mention people (esp. kids) racing through intersections on electric scooters, casually ignoring traffic rules...
latchkey 4y ago
I'd love to see how one would do in the streets of Saigon. Just a couple blocks would be enough... if it gets that far. Update: https://insideevs.com/news/498137/autopilot-defeated-congested-streets-vietnam/ https://insideevs.com/news/498137/autopilot-defeated-congest...
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
olliej 4y ago
FSD requires you to be 100% in control of the vehicle for the entire drive, and paying full attention to the driving, and also do nothing. This is demonstrably not a task that anyone can do, let alone Joa[n] Average car driver. Highly trained pilots are not expected to do that, and that's when autopilot is being used in a vehicle that can provide significant amounts of time to handle the autopilot going wrong - seriously, when autopilots go wrong in aircraft at cruising altitude pilots can have 10s of seconds, or even minutes, to handle whatever has gone wrong, Tesla's FSD provides people a couple of seconds prior to impact. That said in countries other than the US people can reliably use trains and buses, which also means that they don't have to intervene in driving the vehicle.
- trinix912 4y ago
  > That said in countries other than the US people can reliably use trains and buses, which also means that they don't have to intervene in driving the vehicle. Most of Europe doesn't have ideal public transport either, I'd imagine South America, Africa being the same or even worse in this aspect. It gets drastically worse the moment you want to go somewhere in the countryside.
- causi 4y ago
  Yeah I don't understand the "legitimate" use case. I would imagine people who actually shell out the money get their car onto the interstate then strap a weight to the steering wheel until their exit comes up. Having to watch the road without the stimulation of actively driving is worse than having no assistance at all.
- xdavidliu 4y ago
  > Joa[n] nit: Jo[a]n
  - olliej 4y ago
    nooooo! :D
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]

When someone can drive from Palm Springs to SF with no intervention does that not make it bullshit anymore?

by adampk 4y ago

When someone can drive from Palm Springs to SF with no intervention does that not make it bullshit anymore?

vore 4y ago

Sure, but they can't.

onlyrealcuzzo 4y ago

If you have a 99% chance of death - 1% of people are still going to make it. You obviously don't have a 99% chance of death - but just by virtue of it being possible does not also mean it is not BS. You can drive drunk from PS to SF also. What's your point?

RajT88 4y ago
I know a Tesla owner. The chance of death (well, a crash anyways) is more like 1%, according to him. Those odds are good enough for the occasional trip home from a cocktail party, but hardly cost-competitive with Rideshares/Taxis. How many 9's do we need before we can say it's reliable enough to trust it? A few more, for sure.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  > How many 9's do we need before we can say it's reliable enough to trust it? A few more, for sure. Yeah, 1% is definitely not going to cut it. What are the odds of dying when a human is at the wheel? Something like 0.000025% if my napkin math is right and my assumptions in the right ballpark.

kube-system 4y ago

The technology is mostly fine. The bullshit is mostly the false expectations they set, and the subsequent risks they choose to take in implementation in order to minimize their expectations miss. Other driving assistance systems try to do less, but they do it honestly.

causi 4y ago

When someone can drive from Palm Springs to SF Does that mean "stay in the correct lane on the interstate and take the proper exits without hitting anything" or does that mean "begin inside your garage and end inside another garage five hundred miles away without touching anything"? The first one is nearly trivial. It stops being bullshit when they stop telling the user they need to pay attention to the road, and not one second before.

smachiz 4y ago
I wouldn't describe it as trivial. My Tesla would phantom brake consistently in a lot of spots - overpasses were a very big trigger. Also anytime I'd pass an exit I wasn't taking in the right lane it would veer and slow down aggressively, same with trying to speed match a car rapidly accelerating on an on ramp. Bottom line, there's absolutely nothing that isn't driver assist; everything requires a significant amount of vigilance when you aren't driving in a straight line, in the left lane, on an empty highway with no one entering and exiting.
trinix912 4y ago
Imagine a scenario: someone's on a bike, running down the street towards the pedestrian crossing. There's a vehicle (truck, bus...) on the left covering the view. The cyclist swiftly crosses the road, the car doesn't detect anything as there's nothing to detect (because of the truck/bus), bam! Many drivers would see the cyclist before and be very careful when passing the other vehicle (although we don't predict correctly 100% of the time either). I haven't had a chance to test any self-driving system yet so I'm legitimately interested, do those systems reliably detect such things? Not to mention people (esp. kids) racing through intersections on electric scooters, casually ignoring traffic rules...

latchkey 4y ago

I'd love to see how one would do in the streets of Saigon. Just a couple blocks would be enough... if it gets that far. Update: https://insideevs.com/news/498137/autopilot-defeated-congested-streets-vietnam/ https://insideevs.com/news/498137/autopilot-defeated-congest...

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

olliej 4y ago

FSD requires you to be 100% in control of the vehicle for the entire drive, and paying full attention to the driving, and also do nothing. This is demonstrably not a task that anyone can do, let alone Joa[n] Average car driver. Highly trained pilots are not expected to do that, and that's when autopilot is being used in a vehicle that can provide significant amounts of time to handle the autopilot going wrong - seriously, when autopilots go wrong in aircraft at cruising altitude pilots can have 10s of seconds, or even minutes, to handle whatever has gone wrong, Tesla's FSD provides people a couple of seconds prior to impact. That said in countries other than the US people can reliably use trains and buses, which also means that they don't have to intervene in driving the vehicle.

trinix912 4y ago
> That said in countries other than the US people can reliably use trains and buses, which also means that they don't have to intervene in driving the vehicle. Most of Europe doesn't have ideal public transport either, I'd imagine South America, Africa being the same or even worse in this aspect. It gets drastically worse the moment you want to go somewhere in the countryside.
causi 4y ago
Yeah I don't understand the "legitimate" use case. I would imagine people who actually shell out the money get their car onto the interstate then strap a weight to the steering wheel until their exit comes up. Having to watch the road without the stimulation of actively driving is worse than having no assistance at all.
xdavidliu 4y ago
> Joa[n] nit: Jo[a]n
- olliej 4y ago
  nooooo! :D
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]