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Exactly. Inflation only lowers stocks because the federal reserve tightens the money supply by raising rates, which hurts companies and spending. If you want t
by jmoak3 4y ago
Exactly. Inflation only lowers stocks because the federal reserve tightens the money supply by raising rates, which hurts companies and spending.
If you want to gamble that the fed will get too scared to raise the rates, you’ll buy stocks because inflation will raise them nominally.
Many people think the fed will back off because if the rates get too high, it will cripple our federal government’s ability to spend. The average maturity of their debt is 5 years. With a debt to gdp ratio of 121%, and a federally taxable percent of yearly gdp of 19%, it’s not hard to do the math and see that a huge ungodly chunk of federal spending is already on track to disappear. It’s hard to imagine rates at something like 8%. Not the best time for that with increasing payments to Medicare and social security you may say.
Here’s the math if you’d like to see how messed up it is yourself:
(Fed_GDP_Tax_% - (Debt_Gdp_Ratio * Debt_Interest_Rate) =
%_Of_GDP_Collected_And_Spendable
A federal funds rate of 5% compared to 0% already reduces usable income collected by the federal government from 19% of GDP to 12.95% of GDP
If rates stay as high as they already are, in 5 years we will need to halve social security and Medicare. At 8% you may need to delete them entirely.
So yeah, I’m buying stocks.