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Often the forseeable future is about 5 years. A study from 10 years ago is outdated. Solar has dropped roughly half it's cost every decade for the past two dec
by foxyv 4y ago
Often the forseeable future is about 5 years. A study from 10 years ago is outdated.
Solar has dropped roughly half it's cost every decade for the past two decades. This means you can have twice as much as you need for the same price. Lithium battery costs are 1/7th the price they were 10 years ago per kwh. Will we still need fossil fuels? Yes, absolutely! But the scale of fossil fuel usage will drop like a rock until it's a quaint product of a bygone age used in arctic regions only.
Fossil fuels are already feeling the crunch. Coal is the first victim. Natural gas will go down as well. Mostly because they are too expensive and there are better alternatives.
I can see nuclear becoming cheap enough to replace a lot of existing steam generators in colder, darker, regions like northern Europe. But even then, geothermal is starting to sneak back as a viable technology.
I really look forward to seeing where this all goes, but it's not looking good for petroleum based fuels.