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This is a lot of detail without a lot of business substance that matters. It's not true insider information, it's opinion-based, and it's not really all that re
by dangus 4y ago
This is a lot of detail without a lot of business substance that matters. It's not true insider information, it's opinion-based, and it's not really all that relevant to whether Google is "in trouble."
The premise is that people are catching up to Google while Google mismanages. Microsoft is coming out strong and refreshed (and, I agree, they are seemingly very well managed), and small competitors are nipping at their heels.
The intro of this article touts the new Bing AI search engine as a major threat to Google. But...is it? Microsoft released what is essentially a proof of concept piggybacking on OpenAI's work.
So is Google really in trouble? Let's look at this through the lens of revenue [2]:
- Google is essentially a search monopoly. It's impressive that Bing has gotten anywhere, but it's too early to say if gaining 4% marketshare in a year [1] is the sign of a lasting trend. The fact that Bing and Edge are persistent defaults with constant nags in Windows 10/11 as well as being integrated into Windows search and 90%+ of people still switch their browser and search to Google tells you a whole lot about consumers' preferences.
(On this note, remember that the better product doesn't always "win" in capitalism. For example, Microsoft Teams has more active users than Slack by far [3], but that's not because it's the better app - that's because it's part of an ecosystem and a migration path for Microsoft's army of business clients)
- GCP will be a cash cow forever, just like AWS and Azure.
- Android and the Google Play store are also forever cash cows. Android and iOS are a forever duopoly with no chance of disruption.
- YouTube: another cash cow with both ad and subscription revenue with no sign of disruption.
Sure, if Google Search fails, the company is basically less than half the size. But the idea that a company like Google is going to screw up on search in the long term isn't based on any sort of evidence in my mind.
[1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/216573/worldwide-market-share-of-search-engines/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/216573/worldwide-market-...
[2] https://fourweekmba.com/google-revenue-breakdown/ https://fourweekmba.com/google-revenue-breakdown/
[3] https://kinsta.com/blog/microsoft-teams-vs-slack/ https://kinsta.com/blog/microsoft-teams-vs-slack/
- dastbe 4y agoI would point out > - GCP will be a cash cow forever, just like AWS and Azure. GCP is still losing something like a billion dollars a year.