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I think this is starting look like it is accurate. The sudden progress of AI is more of an illusion. It is more readily apparent in the field of image generatio

I think this is starting look like it is accurate. The sudden progress of AI is more of an illusion. It is more readily apparent in the field of image generation. If you stand back far enough, the images look outstanding. However, any close inspection reveals small errors everywhere as AI doesn't actually understand the structure of things. So it is as well with data, just not as easily perceptible at first as sometimes you have to be knowledgeable of the domain to realize just how bad it is. I've seen some online discussions starting to emerge that suggests this is indeed an architecture flaw in LLMs. That would imply fixing this is not something that is just around the corner, but a significant effort that might even require rethinking the approach.

hinkley 4y ago
> but a significant effort that might even require rethinking the approach. There’s probably a Turing award for whatever comes next, and for whatever comes after that. And I don’t think that AI will replace developers at any rate. All it might do is show us how futile some of the work we get saddled with is. A new kind of framework for dealing with the sorts of things management believes are important but actually have a high material cost for the value they provide. We all know people who are good at talking, and some of them are good at talking people into unpaid overtime. That’s how they make the numbers work, but chewing developers up and spitting them out. Until we get smart and say no.
pixl97 4y ago
I don't think it's an illusion, there has been progress. And I also agree that the AI like thing we have is nowhere near AGI. And I also agree with rethinking the approach. The problem here is human AI is deeply entwined and optimized the problems of living things. Before we had humanlike intelligence we had 'do not get killed' and 'do not starve' intelligence. The general issue is AI doesn't have these concerns. This causes a set of alignment issues between human behavior an AI behavior. AI doesn't have any 'this causes death' filter inherent to its architecture and we'll poorly try to tack this on and wonder why it fails.
- 13years 4y ago
  Yes, didn't mean to imply there is no progress, just that some perceive that we are all of a sudden getting close to AGI from their first impressions of ChatGPT.
- hinkley 4y ago
  My professional opinion is that we should be using AI like Bloom filters. Can we detect if the expensive calculation needs to be made or not. A 2% error rate in that situation is just an opex issue, not a publicity nightmare.

hinkley 4y ago

> but a significant effort that might even require rethinking the approach. There’s probably a Turing award for whatever comes next, and for whatever comes after that. And I don’t think that AI will replace developers at any rate. All it might do is show us how futile some of the work we get saddled with is. A new kind of framework for dealing with the sorts of things management believes are important but actually have a high material cost for the value they provide. We all know people who are good at talking, and some of them are good at talking people into unpaid overtime. That’s how they make the numbers work, but chewing developers up and spitting them out. Until we get smart and say no.

pixl97 4y ago

I don't think it's an illusion, there has been progress. And I also agree that the AI like thing we have is nowhere near AGI. And I also agree with rethinking the approach. The problem here is human AI is deeply entwined and optimized the problems of living things. Before we had humanlike intelligence we had 'do not get killed' and 'do not starve' intelligence. The general issue is AI doesn't have these concerns. This causes a set of alignment issues between human behavior an AI behavior. AI doesn't have any 'this causes death' filter inherent to its architecture and we'll poorly try to tack this on and wonder why it fails.

13years 4y ago
Yes, didn't mean to imply there is no progress, just that some perceive that we are all of a sudden getting close to AGI from their first impressions of ChatGPT.
hinkley 4y ago
My professional opinion is that we should be using AI like Bloom filters. Can we detect if the expensive calculation needs to be made or not. A 2% error rate in that situation is just an opex issue, not a publicity nightmare.