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However the whole EU market can't return to ICEs because of fleet emission limits, which are now 95g CO2/km and from 2025 will be 15% lower, with other changes

by tpm 4y ago

However the whole EU market can't return to ICEs because of fleet emission limits, which are now 95g CO2/km and from 2025 will be 15% lower, with other changes too. So my guess is, people who can afford it (including charging infra) will have EVs which will get better and more expensive and the rest will not buy new cars. Maybe the market will shift to smaller forms of mobility, we'll see.

toomuchtodo 4y ago
The EU also, just within the last few days, banned new combustion vehicle sales starting 2035. Burn the ships, there will be no going back.
- radiator 4y ago
  The EU had also banned and stopped operating coal generators, but now they are back in operation.
  - toomuchtodo 4y ago
    https://www.iea.org/news/defying-expectations-co2-emissions-from-global-fossil-fuel-combustion-are-set-to-grow-in-2022-by-only-a-fraction-of-last-year-s-big-increase https://www.iea.org/news/defying-expectations-co2-emissions-... > The European Union’s CO2 emissions are on course to decline this year despite an increase in coal emissions. The rise in European coal use is expected to be temporary, with a strong pipeline of new renewable projects forecast to add around 50 gigawatts of capacity in 2023. These additions would generate more electricity than the expected increase in coal-fired power generation in the EU in 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/22/eus-emissions-continue-to-fall-despite-return-to-coal https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/22/eus-emis... > EU’s emissions continue to fall despite return to coal My note: those coal plants are only increasing emissions a few percentage points temporarily. Trajectory deviation is ever so sleight.
  - fragmede 4y ago
    There seems to be some sort of exceptional geopolitical event involving Russia and Ukraine. You may have heard of it. It's affecting the global energy market.
TheLoafOfBread 4y ago
I am coming from an Eastern Block. It was quite common during communism to drive 20-30 years old cars. I think that Eastern Europe will teach the western part how to properly stagnate.
- cmh89 4y ago
  Cars should last more than 20 years. It's only recently with planned obsolescence that the manufacturers have gotten that number down.
- haspok 4y ago
  It was not. Cars of that era didn't last, as a matter of fact, they would last much less (and require far more maintenance) than the cars of today. It is true that certain cars (Trabi comes to mind) could be fixed roadside with a screwdriver and a hammer usually, but >100k kilometers life was still rare - people simply used their cars less and for shorter trips those days.
  - tpm 4y ago
    It was quite common. You are right the cars didn't last long and required more maintenance. But also they were much simpler, with lower tolerance parts, so it was easier for lower-skilled mechanics to repair them. Many people around me did that. Another thing is most people used cars much less as you correctly write, so the lower endurance and reliability mattered less. This is not a sentimental view of good old times, the cars were really bad, killed many people etc, but the fact is because people didn't have a choice they hanged on to them as long as they could. Once modern cars became available, everyone ditched the old ones as fast as they could afford it. What is currently happenning with cars is not that they last shorter, but after the first life mostly in western/central Europe they are sold to the east and south where they continue to work for many more years, but out of our sight.

by tpm 4y ago

toomuchtodo 4y ago

The EU also, just within the last few days, banned new combustion vehicle sales starting 2035. Burn the ships, there will be no going back.

radiator 4y ago
The EU had also banned and stopped operating coal generators, but now they are back in operation.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  https://www.iea.org/news/defying-expectations-co2-emissions-from-global-fossil-fuel-combustion-are-set-to-grow-in-2022-by-only-a-fraction-of-last-year-s-big-increase https://www.iea.org/news/defying-expectations-co2-emissions-... > The European Union’s CO2 emissions are on course to decline this year despite an increase in coal emissions. The rise in European coal use is expected to be temporary, with a strong pipeline of new renewable projects forecast to add around 50 gigawatts of capacity in 2023. These additions would generate more electricity than the expected increase in coal-fired power generation in the EU in 2022. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/22/eus-emissions-continue-to-fall-despite-return-to-coal https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/dec/22/eus-emis... > EU’s emissions continue to fall despite return to coal My note: those coal plants are only increasing emissions a few percentage points temporarily. Trajectory deviation is ever so sleight.
- fragmede 4y ago
  There seems to be some sort of exceptional geopolitical event involving Russia and Ukraine. You may have heard of it. It's affecting the global energy market.

TheLoafOfBread 4y ago

I am coming from an Eastern Block. It was quite common during communism to drive 20-30 years old cars. I think that Eastern Europe will teach the western part how to properly stagnate.

cmh89 4y ago
Cars should last more than 20 years. It's only recently with planned obsolescence that the manufacturers have gotten that number down.
haspok 4y ago
It was not. Cars of that era didn't last, as a matter of fact, they would last much less (and require far more maintenance) than the cars of today. It is true that certain cars (Trabi comes to mind) could be fixed roadside with a screwdriver and a hammer usually, but >100k kilometers life was still rare - people simply used their cars less and for shorter trips those days.
- tpm 4y ago
  It was quite common. You are right the cars didn't last long and required more maintenance. But also they were much simpler, with lower tolerance parts, so it was easier for lower-skilled mechanics to repair them. Many people around me did that. Another thing is most people used cars much less as you correctly write, so the lower endurance and reliability mattered less. This is not a sentimental view of good old times, the cars were really bad, killed many people etc, but the fact is because people didn't have a choice they hanged on to them as long as they could. Once modern cars became available, everyone ditched the old ones as fast as they could afford it. What is currently happenning with cars is not that they last shorter, but after the first life mostly in western/central Europe they are sold to the east and south where they continue to work for many more years, but out of our sight.