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Their current offering is "meh" from the EV perspective. It doesn't look like their experience with small-battery low-voltage hybrids gave them skills and exper

by pornel 4y ago

Their current offering is "meh" from the EV perspective. It doesn't look like their experience with small-battery low-voltage hybrids gave them skills and experience to execute a good BEV. ICE reliability is a different game than batteries, efficiency, and software game of BEVs. I think there's a high chance that Toyota will be sidelined by EV-first automakers from Korea and China just like US automakers were sidelined by Japanese automakers in the 20th century.

jacquesm 4y ago
Good thing Europe doesn't produce cars any more.
chasd00 4y ago
i cant even imagine how hard it would be for an ICE manufacturer to pivot into EVs. Those decades of engine/transmission refinement expertise? out the window. Imagine trying to organize and pitch a new vehicle without including the powertrain people and, instead, a team with nothing on the road yet.
- oblio 4y ago
  Nobody said it's easy, but if you don't live in the US, you should be aware that there are already loads of EVs out on the road and available, all from "legacy" car manufacturers. VW: https://www.arenaev.com/volkswagen-electric-vehicles-2.php https://www.arenaev.com/volkswagen-electric-vehicles-2.php (add Audi, Skoda, Seat, etc to that) Mercedes: https://www.arenaev.com/mercedes-electric-vehicles-6.php https://www.arenaev.com/mercedes-electric-vehicles-6.php BMW, Kia, Hyunday, Volvo, Renault, BYD, Opel, Cupra, ...
- Merad 4y ago
  I think Toyota is in much better shape in this regard than you might expect. Most/all of their hybrid vehicles use an eCVT transmission to drive the front wheels that's radically different from a traditional transmission. And their AWD hybrid models provide the AWD via an electric motor on the rear axle (no connection to the ICE engine) that's essentially identical to the setup in electric cars.
  - pornel 4y ago
    Assumption that hybrids are essentially EVs glosses over all the fine details that make a good EV. All ICE engines are "essentially identical" too, but there's a world of difference between ICE manufacturers. VW Beetle has an engine in the rear, but it doesn't make it a Lambo. Plug-in hybrids all use AC charging or at best equally slow DC charging. OTOH BEVs compete on maximizing the charging curve, which is something that has never been a consideration in PHEVs. This requires dealing with much higher voltages and stress on the battery. Hybrids don't need active temperature management for their batteries, because they never push the batteries that hard, and there's always an ICE engine to generate heat if needed. OTOH thermal management and battery conditioning, and efficient A/C is an important complex piece of BEVs. Hybrids don't need to maximize their efficiency, since their electric range isn't as important, and even a just-okay electric motor is going to improve efficiency of an ICE engine. OTOH in BEVs every last bit of efficiency matters, since that's a factor in range, weight, and cost. Toyota's bz4x efficiency looks poor compared to BEVs from VW and Hyundai, and they're all noticeably worse than Tesla's. Batteries in hybrids are relatively small, so they can get away with worse energy density. You can't put 10 PHEV batteries together to make a good BEV. And legacy automakers still treat software as a nuisance to outsource, instead of a critical component of an EV. I don't mean self-driving publicity stunts, but basics like route planning that includes appropriate charging stops. Software from legacy automakers treats chargers like gas stations, often without real-time speed and availability data. They will send you to some random hotel charger that takes 11 hours to charge, is customer-only and already taken, instead of a rapid 20-minute charger that is just a bit further away.
- clouddrover 4y ago
  Volkswagen is the biggest EV maker in Europe: https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Years https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Y... I'd say they've pivoted.

by pornel 4y ago

jacquesm 4y ago

Good thing Europe doesn't produce cars any more.

chasd00 4y ago

i cant even imagine how hard it would be for an ICE manufacturer to pivot into EVs. Those decades of engine/transmission refinement expertise? out the window. Imagine trying to organize and pitch a new vehicle without including the powertrain people and, instead, a team with nothing on the road yet.

oblio 4y ago
Nobody said it's easy, but if you don't live in the US, you should be aware that there are already loads of EVs out on the road and available, all from "legacy" car manufacturers. VW: https://www.arenaev.com/volkswagen-electric-vehicles-2.php https://www.arenaev.com/volkswagen-electric-vehicles-2.php (add Audi, Skoda, Seat, etc to that) Mercedes: https://www.arenaev.com/mercedes-electric-vehicles-6.php https://www.arenaev.com/mercedes-electric-vehicles-6.php BMW, Kia, Hyunday, Volvo, Renault, BYD, Opel, Cupra, ...
Merad 4y ago
I think Toyota is in much better shape in this regard than you might expect. Most/all of their hybrid vehicles use an eCVT transmission to drive the front wheels that's radically different from a traditional transmission. And their AWD hybrid models provide the AWD via an electric motor on the rear axle (no connection to the ICE engine) that's essentially identical to the setup in electric cars.
- pornel 4y ago
  Assumption that hybrids are essentially EVs glosses over all the fine details that make a good EV. All ICE engines are "essentially identical" too, but there's a world of difference between ICE manufacturers. VW Beetle has an engine in the rear, but it doesn't make it a Lambo. Plug-in hybrids all use AC charging or at best equally slow DC charging. OTOH BEVs compete on maximizing the charging curve, which is something that has never been a consideration in PHEVs. This requires dealing with much higher voltages and stress on the battery. Hybrids don't need active temperature management for their batteries, because they never push the batteries that hard, and there's always an ICE engine to generate heat if needed. OTOH thermal management and battery conditioning, and efficient A/C is an important complex piece of BEVs. Hybrids don't need to maximize their efficiency, since their electric range isn't as important, and even a just-okay electric motor is going to improve efficiency of an ICE engine. OTOH in BEVs every last bit of efficiency matters, since that's a factor in range, weight, and cost. Toyota's bz4x efficiency looks poor compared to BEVs from VW and Hyundai, and they're all noticeably worse than Tesla's. Batteries in hybrids are relatively small, so they can get away with worse energy density. You can't put 10 PHEV batteries together to make a good BEV. And legacy automakers still treat software as a nuisance to outsource, instead of a critical component of an EV. I don't mean self-driving publicity stunts, but basics like route planning that includes appropriate charging stops. Software from legacy automakers treats chargers like gas stations, often without real-time speed and availability data. They will send you to some random hotel charger that takes 11 hours to charge, is customer-only and already taken, instead of a rapid 20-minute charger that is just a bit further away.
clouddrover 4y ago
Volkswagen is the biggest EV maker in Europe: https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Years https://eu-evs.com/marketShare/ALL/Groups/Line/All-time-by-Y... I'd say they've pivoted.