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I had a Toyota. It was a great car, and a real testament to the engineering prowess Toyoda established. I see very clear, very interesting Innovator's Dilemma

I had a Toyota. It was a great car, and a real testament to the engineering prowess Toyoda established. I see very clear, very interesting Innovator's Dilemma vibes, though, in how widely they've missed the boat on EVs. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Toyota lose its dominance in the coming decade. It's sad, since the Prius was such a gamechanger. Maybe the passing of the torch here will let them start to catch up.

namdnay 4y ago
I think there’s enough time for them to catch up, look how far the Koreans have come in less than ten years
- Dalewyn 4y ago
  I'm happy to bet it's not happening. Japan is far too busy fighting amongst themselves and/or catering to themselves first and foremost. South Korea, Taiwan, and China slayed Japan because they played for keeps and pulled no punches. Japan simply does not have the correct mindset to deliberately (re)conquer and succeed. If this sounds brutal and/or flippant, allow me to say that I'm saying this as a Japanese-American. I will happily use my blood to shit talk my heritage, because honestly it's a fucking shame and it's even more shameful that Japan can't (read: won't) dig themselves out.
  - insane_dreamer 4y ago
    But don’t Toyota and Honda still own the sedan market in the US (Corolla/Prius/Camry/Civic/Accord)? I’m pretty sure they’re stronger than the Koreans in the compact/midsize SUV market too (CRV, RAV4). Koreans might be stronger elsewhere, not sure.
    - Dalewyn 4y ago
      Cars are one of the few industries Japan still holds the crown of, but if past track records in other industries are anything to go by I expect that a changing of the crown is only a matter of time. Anyone who is familiar with computing history should know of Japan's practically disasterous fall from grace in nearly everything related to the computer industry. I've also seen that exact cycle of falling play out countless times in their other industries. I'm sick and tired of Japan continuing to lose and eat dirt, I would be ecstatic to be proven wrong. But Japan just doesn't have the mindset to (re)win customers in the 21st century.
rvba 4y ago
Someone from my family has a nice Toyota bought few years ago but the car has constant problems with Android Auto. How can you make a car in 2018+ that does not work with the most popular smartphone OS?
cma 4y ago
For the batteries in each EV, you could make 7 plug-in hybrids. That's 1 full electric and 6 gas cars, vs 7 plug-in hybrids. I think Toyota's approach would save more emissions so long as we are battery constrained.
- scotty79 4y ago
  A lot of people who own plug-in hybrids don't really ever plug them in which makes them worse than gasoline cars or non-plugin hybrids because of added weight.
  - francisofascii 4y ago
    What? That doesn’t sound right. I would have to think the majority of people plug them in. That is the whole point of paying more for a plug-in.
    - jacquesm 4y ago
      In plenty of countries those plug-in hybrids were sold with lots of up front subsidies and reduced running costs due to lower taxation for the first five years.
    - sbradford26 4y ago
      I believe this stems from a paper that came out about how some large percentage of PHEVs never plugged in. The large caveat was that a large amount of that data was from company vehicles for employees. Which those employees have very little incentive to actually plug in since typically the company pays for fuel costs.
    - exhilaration 4y ago
      There was a bunch of reporting on this study like this: https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/phev-owners-not-plugging-in https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/phev-owners-not... Here's the actual study (PDF): https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/real-world-phev-us-dec22.pdf https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/real-world-ph... We may have talked about it on HN.
ravagat 4y ago
I'm still in the camp that they did not in fact miss the boat on EVs. We, globally, are still very far off until EV adoption and probably better off focusing on more important things versus directly on EVs. Also Toyota was pioneer in EVs and I think you've discounted that if you're really looked at it on a bigger view of things
- duffyjp 4y ago
  I agree. I have a 2013 Prius C that cost me $20K brand new and gets 50mpg without even trying. My fuel expenses are negligible. The new 2023 Prius gets even better milage and has TWICE the horsepower (99 vs 196). Before the Prius I had a 2000 Lexus ES with 200HP and I got about 17MPG. The advancement in ~20 years is incredible. Gas savings alone covered more than half of my loan payments each month.
  - dsfyu404ed 4y ago
    > The advancement in ~20 years is incredible. Pretty much every 90s compact was putting down similar power numbers and got 80% the fuel economy...
- r00fus 4y ago
  You could be correct, but if I had to guess they would need to make a sea-change in their attitude towards full electrification of their product lines, and we haven't really seen that externally. It could also be the case that electric/battery tech ushers in new modes of transport that aren't "car", "motorcycle" or "bicycle" thus upending the status quo.
speby 4y ago
It's possible, yes. Empires rise. Empires fall. Toyota will adapt and 'missed the boat' implies that that's it; they're done. They're absolutely not done. They were also miles ahead of others when they introduced the Prius in the 90s. It's not as if they haven't been engineering and mass-producing electric powertrains for a long time. One strong reason they have not missed the boat? No one yet producing an EV right now even comes within arms-reach of Toyota's quality. People forget that it is, in fact, Toyota's legendary quality+reliability+value that makes it a brand people adore and come back to again, and again, and again. When they make an EV (and they will, eventually) that it is as good as the quality Toyota has built its foundation on, they will absolutely CRUSH it.
NDizzle 4y ago
Why would they lose their dominance? Are other manufacturers quality standards coming close to Toyota? I think not... EVs don't work for me and my use case. I plan on keeping my Land Cruiser forever. My kids are starting to drive now, with one starting these past few months. In a Toyota, of course. As will the next two.
unregistereddev 4y ago
Toyota does not - and as far as I can tell, has never - led the world in cutting-edge technology. They are a very conservative company. This does not mean they have missed the boat. Even their hybrids were not first-to-market. Toyota did not invent the hybrid ICE/electric car; they simply implemented it better than their competitors. Around 10 years ago, direct injection was the new thing for ICE vehicles. It improved engine efficiency at the cost of extra complexity. Toyota initially refused to add direct injection to their engines. Automotive writers at the time believed Toyota was falling behind with its outdated engine technology. They believed other automakers would surpass Toyota's efficiency. What actually happened was a line of bad engines for VW, GM, and Kia/Hyundai. They lost a considerable amount of money and reputation due to engine failures caused by carbon buildup in their direct injected engines. Meanwhile, Toyota eventually launched their own implementation of direct injection. It was a combination of both high-pressure direct injection and port injection. The engine ran in different modes depending on the load and operating temperature. This gave them the same efficiency gains (though several years later than their competition) while avoiding the common failure modes of other companies' engines. Don't write off the sleeping giant. Maybe Toyota will lose its dominance, or maybe they'll show up late to the party having learned from everyone else's mistakes.
- Paianni 4y ago
  The 1AZ-FSE was their first GDI engine, it was fitted to the T220 Avensis back in the early noughts. Incidentally, the implementation you describe is the 'D-4S' system, Toyota D-4 engines are purely direct injection with the same carbon buildup issues as all the others...which isn't the end of the world as the inlet valves and manifold can be walnut blasted to remove the deposits but it's not the easiest job to do.
  - lukas099 4y ago
    TIL that blasting walnut shells at something is a widely-accepted technique in car repair
molsongolden 4y ago
Toyota is building EVs, they just don't believe all-in on EV is what the market really wants right now. Subaru is also building their EVs on Toyota's EV platform.
manmal 4y ago
My Ioniq is a great EV (though dated) and it’s not even a pure EV platform (also available as PHEV and ICE). Toyota only need to throw the ICE out of a PHEV and increase battery size, and they‘ll have an EV that’s probably better build quality than 90% of the market.
rodgerd 4y ago
> in how widely they've missed the boat on EVs. They delivered a well-liked pure EV in the 90s that had a queue of people who wanted one. Chevron bought up a company with key battery patents, sued the RAV4 out of existence, wrote licensing arrangements such that no vehicle battery could be more than a couple of kWh in capacity, and went to court to have the results of their legal action kept quiet. Toyota's hybrids have had the maximum battery allowed by that Chevron lawsuit. I am not surprised that they would be reluctant to get involved in being on any kind of electric leading edge again given that the evidence is that their entire product line could be destroyed on a whim.

namdnay 4y ago

I think there’s enough time for them to catch up, look how far the Koreans have come in less than ten years

Dalewyn 4y ago
I'm happy to bet it's not happening. Japan is far too busy fighting amongst themselves and/or catering to themselves first and foremost. South Korea, Taiwan, and China slayed Japan because they played for keeps and pulled no punches. Japan simply does not have the correct mindset to deliberately (re)conquer and succeed. If this sounds brutal and/or flippant, allow me to say that I'm saying this as a Japanese-American. I will happily use my blood to shit talk my heritage, because honestly it's a fucking shame and it's even more shameful that Japan can't (read: won't) dig themselves out.
- insane_dreamer 4y ago
  But don’t Toyota and Honda still own the sedan market in the US (Corolla/Prius/Camry/Civic/Accord)? I’m pretty sure they’re stronger than the Koreans in the compact/midsize SUV market too (CRV, RAV4). Koreans might be stronger elsewhere, not sure.
  - Dalewyn 4y ago
    Cars are one of the few industries Japan still holds the crown of, but if past track records in other industries are anything to go by I expect that a changing of the crown is only a matter of time. Anyone who is familiar with computing history should know of Japan's practically disasterous fall from grace in nearly everything related to the computer industry. I've also seen that exact cycle of falling play out countless times in their other industries. I'm sick and tired of Japan continuing to lose and eat dirt, I would be ecstatic to be proven wrong. But Japan just doesn't have the mindset to (re)win customers in the 21st century.

rvba 4y ago

Someone from my family has a nice Toyota bought few years ago but the car has constant problems with Android Auto. How can you make a car in 2018+ that does not work with the most popular smartphone OS?

cma 4y ago

For the batteries in each EV, you could make 7 plug-in hybrids. That's 1 full electric and 6 gas cars, vs 7 plug-in hybrids. I think Toyota's approach would save more emissions so long as we are battery constrained.

scotty79 4y ago
A lot of people who own plug-in hybrids don't really ever plug them in which makes them worse than gasoline cars or non-plugin hybrids because of added weight.
- francisofascii 4y ago
  What? That doesn’t sound right. I would have to think the majority of people plug them in. That is the whole point of paying more for a plug-in.
  - jacquesm 4y ago
    In plenty of countries those plug-in hybrids were sold with lots of up front subsidies and reduced running costs due to lower taxation for the first five years.
  - sbradford26 4y ago
    I believe this stems from a paper that came out about how some large percentage of PHEVs never plugged in. The large caveat was that a large amount of that data was from company vehicles for employees. Which those employees have very little incentive to actually plug in since typically the company pays for fuel costs.
  - exhilaration 4y ago
    There was a bunch of reporting on this study like this: https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/phev-owners-not-plugging-in https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/phev-owners-not... Here's the actual study (PDF): https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/real-world-phev-us-dec22.pdf https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/real-world-ph... We may have talked about it on HN.

ravagat 4y ago

I'm still in the camp that they did not in fact miss the boat on EVs. We, globally, are still very far off until EV adoption and probably better off focusing on more important things versus directly on EVs. Also Toyota was pioneer in EVs and I think you've discounted that if you're really looked at it on a bigger view of things

duffyjp 4y ago
I agree. I have a 2013 Prius C that cost me $20K brand new and gets 50mpg without even trying. My fuel expenses are negligible. The new 2023 Prius gets even better milage and has TWICE the horsepower (99 vs 196). Before the Prius I had a 2000 Lexus ES with 200HP and I got about 17MPG. The advancement in ~20 years is incredible. Gas savings alone covered more than half of my loan payments each month.
- dsfyu404ed 4y ago
  > The advancement in ~20 years is incredible. Pretty much every 90s compact was putting down similar power numbers and got 80% the fuel economy...
r00fus 4y ago
You could be correct, but if I had to guess they would need to make a sea-change in their attitude towards full electrification of their product lines, and we haven't really seen that externally. It could also be the case that electric/battery tech ushers in new modes of transport that aren't "car", "motorcycle" or "bicycle" thus upending the status quo.

speby 4y ago

It's possible, yes. Empires rise. Empires fall. Toyota will adapt and 'missed the boat' implies that that's it; they're done. They're absolutely not done. They were also miles ahead of others when they introduced the Prius in the 90s. It's not as if they haven't been engineering and mass-producing electric powertrains for a long time. One strong reason they have not missed the boat? No one yet producing an EV right now even comes within arms-reach of Toyota's quality. People forget that it is, in fact, Toyota's legendary quality+reliability+value that makes it a brand people adore and come back to again, and again, and again. When they make an EV (and they will, eventually) that it is as good as the quality Toyota has built its foundation on, they will absolutely CRUSH it.

NDizzle 4y ago

Why would they lose their dominance? Are other manufacturers quality standards coming close to Toyota? I think not... EVs don't work for me and my use case. I plan on keeping my Land Cruiser forever. My kids are starting to drive now, with one starting these past few months. In a Toyota, of course. As will the next two.

unregistereddev 4y ago

Toyota does not - and as far as I can tell, has never - led the world in cutting-edge technology. They are a very conservative company. This does not mean they have missed the boat. Even their hybrids were not first-to-market. Toyota did not invent the hybrid ICE/electric car; they simply implemented it better than their competitors. Around 10 years ago, direct injection was the new thing for ICE vehicles. It improved engine efficiency at the cost of extra complexity. Toyota initially refused to add direct injection to their engines. Automotive writers at the time believed Toyota was falling behind with its outdated engine technology. They believed other automakers would surpass Toyota's efficiency. What actually happened was a line of bad engines for VW, GM, and Kia/Hyundai. They lost a considerable amount of money and reputation due to engine failures caused by carbon buildup in their direct injected engines. Meanwhile, Toyota eventually launched their own implementation of direct injection. It was a combination of both high-pressure direct injection and port injection. The engine ran in different modes depending on the load and operating temperature. This gave them the same efficiency gains (though several years later than their competition) while avoiding the common failure modes of other companies' engines. Don't write off the sleeping giant. Maybe Toyota will lose its dominance, or maybe they'll show up late to the party having learned from everyone else's mistakes.

Paianni 4y ago
The 1AZ-FSE was their first GDI engine, it was fitted to the T220 Avensis back in the early noughts. Incidentally, the implementation you describe is the 'D-4S' system, Toyota D-4 engines are purely direct injection with the same carbon buildup issues as all the others...which isn't the end of the world as the inlet valves and manifold can be walnut blasted to remove the deposits but it's not the easiest job to do.
- lukas099 4y ago
  TIL that blasting walnut shells at something is a widely-accepted technique in car repair

molsongolden 4y ago

Toyota is building EVs, they just don't believe all-in on EV is what the market really wants right now. Subaru is also building their EVs on Toyota's EV platform.

manmal 4y ago

My Ioniq is a great EV (though dated) and it’s not even a pure EV platform (also available as PHEV and ICE). Toyota only need to throw the ICE out of a PHEV and increase battery size, and they‘ll have an EV that’s probably better build quality than 90% of the market.

rodgerd 4y ago

> in how widely they've missed the boat on EVs. They delivered a well-liked pure EV in the 90s that had a queue of people who wanted one. Chevron bought up a company with key battery patents, sued the RAV4 out of existence, wrote licensing arrangements such that no vehicle battery could be more than a couple of kWh in capacity, and went to court to have the results of their legal action kept quiet. Toyota's hybrids have had the maximum battery allowed by that Chevron lawsuit. I am not surprised that they would be reluctant to get involved in being on any kind of electric leading edge again given that the evidence is that their entire product line could be destroyed on a whim.