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> I saw a billboard for a lottery, it said "estimated lotto jackpot 55 million." See, I did not know that shit was estimated. That would suck if you won and the

> I saw a billboard for a lottery, it said "estimated lotto jackpot 55 million." See, I did not know that shit was estimated. That would suck if you won and they go, "oh, sorry, we were off by two zeros. We estimate that you are angry!"

jsjohnst 4y ago
> I saw a billboard for a lottery, it said "estimated lotto jackpot 55 million." See, I did not know that shit was estimated. It’s estimated because they don’t know exactly how many tickets will be sold leading up to the next drawing. I’ve not tracked it, but the times I’ve seen, were under 1-2 percentage points. If it bothers you that they said “estimated $55M” and instead you win $54,333,187.42, is it really that bad?
- Nullabillity 4y ago
  The correct answer would be to sell it as a $54M jackpot then. Or require the organizers to pay the difference out of pocket.
  - jsjohnst 4y ago
    Is this an attempt at humor?
    - Nullabillity 4y ago
      No? If you don't know the answer, underestimate and overdeliver. Or consider whether you should be doing it in the first place.
      - oneeyedpigeon 4y ago
        The problem is that underestimating will cause fewer tickets to be sold.
        Y_Y 4y ago
        I can imagine a perverse population of customers whose elasticity function prevents the estimate from ever being correct by always buying too many tickets.
        mrguyorama 4y ago
        A business being less successful if they don't misrepresent reality is perfectly fine to me.
        jsjohnst 4y ago
        > A business being less successful if they don't misrepresent reality is perfectly fine to me We are talking about a state government backed lottery, not a business.
      - jsjohnst 4y ago
        > I did not know that shit was estimated. > If you don't know the answer, underestimate and overdeliver. Make up your mind, is estimating bad or not? The example I gave isn’t the only possible outcome, some times it’s 1-2% more than quoted when more tickets were sold.
        Nullabillity 4y ago
        Err, what? I never posted that first quote? And even then, it's perfectly consistent to say that estimating is only OK if it doesn't make you look better than reality.
  - brookst 4y ago
    Or just label it as estimated until tech is developed to determine how many tickets will be sold in advance?
- helmholtz 4y ago
  It was a joke by the inimitable Mitch Hedberg.

jsjohnst 4y ago

> I saw a billboard for a lottery, it said "estimated lotto jackpot 55 million." See, I did not know that shit was estimated. It’s estimated because they don’t know exactly how many tickets will be sold leading up to the next drawing. I’ve not tracked it, but the times I’ve seen, were under 1-2 percentage points. If it bothers you that they said “estimated $55M” and instead you win $54,333,187.42, is it really that bad?

Nullabillity 4y ago
The correct answer would be to sell it as a $54M jackpot then. Or require the organizers to pay the difference out of pocket.
- jsjohnst 4y ago
  Is this an attempt at humor?
  - Nullabillity 4y ago
    No? If you don't know the answer, underestimate and overdeliver. Or consider whether you should be doing it in the first place.
    - oneeyedpigeon 4y ago
      The problem is that underestimating will cause fewer tickets to be sold.
      - Y_Y 4y ago
        I can imagine a perverse population of customers whose elasticity function prevents the estimate from ever being correct by always buying too many tickets.
      - mrguyorama 4y ago
        A business being less successful if they don't misrepresent reality is perfectly fine to me.
        jsjohnst 4y ago
        > A business being less successful if they don't misrepresent reality is perfectly fine to me We are talking about a state government backed lottery, not a business.
    - jsjohnst 4y ago
      > I did not know that shit was estimated. > If you don't know the answer, underestimate and overdeliver. Make up your mind, is estimating bad or not? The example I gave isn’t the only possible outcome, some times it’s 1-2% more than quoted when more tickets were sold.
      - Nullabillity 4y ago
        Err, what? I never posted that first quote? And even then, it's perfectly consistent to say that estimating is only OK if it doesn't make you look better than reality.
- brookst 4y ago
  Or just label it as estimated until tech is developed to determine how many tickets will be sold in advance?
helmholtz 4y ago
It was a joke by the inimitable Mitch Hedberg.