8 ms·

I watched a Peter Zeihan video recently where he claimed that Apple is the one American manufacturer who refused to move its supply chains out of China position

I watched a Peter Zeihan video recently where he claimed that Apple is the one American manufacturer who refused to move its supply chains out of China positioning themselves for considerable risk in the coming political and economic climate. I'd be curious to know to what extent Berkshire considers this a risk.

arcticbull 4y ago
They seem to have been aggressively investing in India manufacturing over the last few years no?
- metadat 4y ago
  True, although arguably it's not going well. Related story from today: 50% rejection rate for iPhone casings produced in India shows Apple’s challenge https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34795500 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34795500 (147 comments) Another thing to note is that historically, HN is a terrible place to get financial / stock market advice.
  - arcticbull 4y ago
    > Another thing to note is that, historically, HN is a terrible place to get financial market advice. You can say that again haha.
  - moneywoes 4y ago
    What alternatives do you prefer?
    - ndesaulniers 4y ago
      /dev/random
maxlamb 4y ago
They were for the 2010’s, but they are now aggressively trying to move production to Vietnam and India. Time will tell if they can build up this capacity fast enough… https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/20/apple-will-reportedly-begin-producing-some-macbooks-in-vietnam-in-2023.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/20/apple-will-reportedly-be...
throwaway5959 4y ago
I would trust Peter Zeihan as much as I would Peter Schiff. As in, not at all.
- echelon 4y ago
  Peter Zeihan is important to read/watch, but only as part of a fully comprehensive analysis. He's at one end of the spectrum, and that's insufficient to inform. You need to listen to China bulls too. Absorb multiple perspectives and synthesize your own model of how things piece together and move.
  - Beaver117 4y ago
    Like who? Any names? I liked hearing what Zeihan presents but would like to hear the full spectrum.
- peanuty1 4y ago
  I enjoy watching his presentations but his claims are outlandish. He believes the population of China will decrease to 650M by 2050.
kube-system 4y ago
China has been the best value for manufacturing by far during recent history. The combination of capability, price, and speed is unmatched.
- swordsmith 4y ago
  That may be the case in the past, but the factors that enabled the Chinese manufacturing (low to medium range) dominance are largely declining: abundant growing labor force, stable world trading and geopolitical environment.
  - kube-system 4y ago
    Yeah they’re definitely losing that edge, which is why I said “has been”. But I think they still have a bit of an edge, particularly for electronics, at the moment.

arcticbull 4y ago

They seem to have been aggressively investing in India manufacturing over the last few years no?

metadat 4y ago
True, although arguably it's not going well. Related story from today: 50% rejection rate for iPhone casings produced in India shows Apple’s challenge https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34795500 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34795500 (147 comments) Another thing to note is that historically, HN is a terrible place to get financial / stock market advice.
- arcticbull 4y ago
  > Another thing to note is that, historically, HN is a terrible place to get financial market advice. You can say that again haha.
- moneywoes 4y ago
  What alternatives do you prefer?
  - ndesaulniers 4y ago
    /dev/random

maxlamb 4y ago

They were for the 2010’s, but they are now aggressively trying to move production to Vietnam and India. Time will tell if they can build up this capacity fast enough… https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/20/apple-will-reportedly-begin-producing-some-macbooks-in-vietnam-in-2023.html https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/12/20/apple-will-reportedly-be...

throwaway5959 4y ago

I would trust Peter Zeihan as much as I would Peter Schiff. As in, not at all.

echelon 4y ago
Peter Zeihan is important to read/watch, but only as part of a fully comprehensive analysis. He's at one end of the spectrum, and that's insufficient to inform. You need to listen to China bulls too. Absorb multiple perspectives and synthesize your own model of how things piece together and move.
- Beaver117 4y ago
  Like who? Any names? I liked hearing what Zeihan presents but would like to hear the full spectrum.
peanuty1 4y ago
I enjoy watching his presentations but his claims are outlandish. He believes the population of China will decrease to 650M by 2050.

kube-system 4y ago

China has been the best value for manufacturing by far during recent history. The combination of capability, price, and speed is unmatched.

swordsmith 4y ago
That may be the case in the past, but the factors that enabled the Chinese manufacturing (low to medium range) dominance are largely declining: abundant growing labor force, stable world trading and geopolitical environment.
- kube-system 4y ago
  Yeah they’re definitely losing that edge, which is why I said “has been”. But I think they still have a bit of an edge, particularly for electronics, at the moment.