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“Tech entrepreneur and academic Vivek Wadhwa said that it will likely take three years or so for Indian suppliers to be capable of the kind of volume production

“Tech entrepreneur and academic Vivek Wadhwa said that it will likely take three years or so for Indian suppliers to be capable of the kind of volume production needed to make a noticeable dent in Chinese production.” I wonder how a war over Taiwan would impact that time table? My guess is that it would slow it even further. India has to know it’s holding all the cards.

LarryMullins 4y ago
If previous world wars are anything to go by, a war with China would come with a shift into a wartime economy. Luxury consumer goods like iphones and cars would be an afterthought at best.
- bcrosby95 4y ago
  In a war with a near peer, yeah, not only luxury goods but also civil rights.
lotsofpulp 4y ago
I would not describe not being able to sell goods due to lack of expertise/infrastructure as “holding all the cards”.
Maursault 4y ago
> I wonder how a war over Taiwan would impact that time table? There won't be any war if China invades Taiwan, merely devastating impact. If China were to invade Taiwan, the most-advanced chip factory in the world would be rendered “not operable,” TSMC Chair Mark Liu said. “The war brings no winners, everybody's losers,” Liu said. He said an invasion would cause economic turmoil for China, Taiwan and Western countries.[0] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/apple-chipmaker-tsmc-warns-taiwan-china-war-would-make-everybody-losers.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/apple-chipmaker-tsmc-warns-t...
- FpUser 4y ago
  If China is cut off from Taiwan's most advanced tech that it can not produce on its own it might as well stop caring that the factories get destroyed.
  - Maursault 4y ago
    Four months later...[1] [1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/taiwan-signals-its-chip-firms-will-follow-new-us-rules-china-2022-10-08/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/taiwan-signals-its-chip-f...
    - FpUser 4y ago
      As they say "she was asking for it". Basically they put themselves between rock and hard place. If / when the US will transplant their tech / factories to the US soil or the other safe place they might suddenly loose strong will to protect Taiwan with all their military might.
      - Maursault 4y ago
        I think we should just move the whole island to a spot off the coast of California.

LarryMullins 4y ago

If previous world wars are anything to go by, a war with China would come with a shift into a wartime economy. Luxury consumer goods like iphones and cars would be an afterthought at best.

bcrosby95 4y ago
In a war with a near peer, yeah, not only luxury goods but also civil rights.

lotsofpulp 4y ago

I would not describe not being able to sell goods due to lack of expertise/infrastructure as “holding all the cards”.

Maursault 4y ago

> I wonder how a war over Taiwan would impact that time table? There won't be any war if China invades Taiwan, merely devastating impact. If China were to invade Taiwan, the most-advanced chip factory in the world would be rendered “not operable,” TSMC Chair Mark Liu said. “The war brings no winners, everybody's losers,” Liu said. He said an invasion would cause economic turmoil for China, Taiwan and Western countries.[0] [0] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/apple-chipmaker-tsmc-warns-taiwan-china-war-would-make-everybody-losers.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/02/apple-chipmaker-tsmc-warns-t...

FpUser 4y ago
If China is cut off from Taiwan's most advanced tech that it can not produce on its own it might as well stop caring that the factories get destroyed.
- Maursault 4y ago
  Four months later...[1] [1] https://www.reuters.com/technology/taiwan-signals-its-chip-firms-will-follow-new-us-rules-china-2022-10-08/ https://www.reuters.com/technology/taiwan-signals-its-chip-f...
  - FpUser 4y ago
    As they say "she was asking for it". Basically they put themselves between rock and hard place. If / when the US will transplant their tech / factories to the US soil or the other safe place they might suddenly loose strong will to protect Taiwan with all their military might.
    - Maursault 4y ago
      I think we should just move the whole island to a spot off the coast of California.