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New Glenn looks promising on paper, but seven years later we haven't seen any hardware and the first launch is perpetually "next year". In that time, Starship h

New Glenn looks promising on paper, but seven years later we haven't seen any hardware and the first launch is perpetually "next year". In that time, Starship has been redesigned twice, done flight and landing tests, and is preparing for a full orbital test, and even the perpetually-delayed SLS has flown once.

panick21_ 4y ago
The problem with New Glenn is that its basically a 'government rocke't. It exists because Blue Origin is dropping 2 billion $ a year in loses. New Glenn will never even remotely pay back its investment and at best they can maybe fly it with profitable operations. But until then Blue Origin has basically no actual revenue beyond a very small amount of BE-4 sales. Are we expecting Bezos just to continue to drop billions of $ into Blue Origin for unlimited amount of time? Because non of the projects they have will ever make this company profitable.
- LarryMullins 4y ago
  > Are we expecting Bezos just to continue to drop billions of $ into Blue Origin for unlimited amount of time? To be fair, he's been shoveling money into this unproductive dumpster fire for more than 20 years already.
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    Well but for the first 10 years it was not really a real company, more a hobby project. Then it got bigger and bigger, but only in the mid 2010s did the company seriously start to grow. He was dropping 1 billion per year towards the end of 2010s but the company has been ramping up even more over the last 3-5 years. By now the HR cost alone are probably going towards 2 billion $ a year, they are not so much smaller then SpaceX with no revenue.
ohitsdom 4y ago
> preparing for a full orbital test Rocket delays are inevitable. But since you mentioned New Glenn's perpetual delays, let's also be fair and note that Starship's orbital test has been teased by Elon for quite awhile now [0]. I happen to think an April/May launch is possible, but we'll see. And also good to note that this is still very much a "pathfinder" vehicle, in SpaceX's style of iterative design & test. So not at all the same as whenever New Glenn's first launch will be. [0] https://twitter.com/ESGhound/status/1622680306342891536 https://twitter.com/ESGhound/status/1622680306342891536
- panick21_ 4y ago
  Yeah but New Glenn originally was basically a scaled up Falcon 9, aluminum tanks with first stage reuse. Starship is fully reusable, a much harder problem. New Glenn engine, while staged cycle are not that well optimized and its specs aren't that amazing. Raptor is (probably) the most advanced engine that has ever been fired. Falcon Heavy beats New Glenn on most things, so New Glenn is more comparable to that generation rocket. New Glenn was sized up because Bezos wanted to have something bigger then Falcon 9.

panick21_ 4y ago

The problem with New Glenn is that its basically a 'government rocke't. It exists because Blue Origin is dropping 2 billion $ a year in loses. New Glenn will never even remotely pay back its investment and at best they can maybe fly it with profitable operations. But until then Blue Origin has basically no actual revenue beyond a very small amount of BE-4 sales. Are we expecting Bezos just to continue to drop billions of $ into Blue Origin for unlimited amount of time? Because non of the projects they have will ever make this company profitable.

LarryMullins 4y ago
> Are we expecting Bezos just to continue to drop billions of $ into Blue Origin for unlimited amount of time? To be fair, he's been shoveling money into this unproductive dumpster fire for more than 20 years already.
- panick21_ 4y ago
  Well but for the first 10 years it was not really a real company, more a hobby project. Then it got bigger and bigger, but only in the mid 2010s did the company seriously start to grow. He was dropping 1 billion per year towards the end of 2010s but the company has been ramping up even more over the last 3-5 years. By now the HR cost alone are probably going towards 2 billion $ a year, they are not so much smaller then SpaceX with no revenue.

ohitsdom 4y ago

> preparing for a full orbital test Rocket delays are inevitable. But since you mentioned New Glenn's perpetual delays, let's also be fair and note that Starship's orbital test has been teased by Elon for quite awhile now [0]. I happen to think an April/May launch is possible, but we'll see. And also good to note that this is still very much a "pathfinder" vehicle, in SpaceX's style of iterative design & test. So not at all the same as whenever New Glenn's first launch will be. [0] https://twitter.com/ESGhound/status/1622680306342891536 https://twitter.com/ESGhound/status/1622680306342891536

panick21_ 4y ago
Yeah but New Glenn originally was basically a scaled up Falcon 9, aluminum tanks with first stage reuse. Starship is fully reusable, a much harder problem. New Glenn engine, while staged cycle are not that well optimized and its specs aren't that amazing. Raptor is (probably) the most advanced engine that has ever been fired. Falcon Heavy beats New Glenn on most things, so New Glenn is more comparable to that generation rocket. New Glenn was sized up because Bezos wanted to have something bigger then Falcon 9.