I don't see how this is at all relevant. This would make sense if all applications were picked with a truly random process. If, for example, 1000 teams apply an

I don't see how this is at all relevant. This would make sense if all applications were picked with a truly random process. If, for example, 1000 teams apply and 15 get accepted, your "chances" aren't 1.5%. Those 15 teams just had better or more workable proposals and were picked manually, with a lot of variables that were considered. I think viewing being accepted as a lottery will severely skew your view on the situation.