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Secondhand ICE cars will be on the road for their normal lifespan after the ban comes in. There will be some changes to the market in terms of pricing, but the

Secondhand ICE cars will be on the road for their normal lifespan after the ban comes in. There will be some changes to the market in terms of pricing, but they won't be going out of common sight for another 15-20 years, I think.

bluGill 4y ago
Some will be. However I think we will see a cliff. As ICE cars become less popular gas stations and the refineries supplying them will close. This will start happening when EVs have been 25% of the new market for 3 years, and accelerate when they have been 50% for 3 years. By the time EVs are 75% of the new market gas will start becoming expensive and so EVs will quickly jump to 98%, and people with ICEs will start to plan trips around where to get fuel. That last 1-2% will be some niches that cannot use an EV for some reason, and so they will lobby to reverse the law - but by then it will be too late for ICEs: a few years latter those with an ICE will special order fuel from the last refinery remaining in the world. It will start slow: gas stations will be less profitable, but investors/banks will take time to catch on so they will be built in larger numbers than the numbers justify (if you are an investor take note: there is opportunity to make money in shorts if you get it right - I'm not an investor so I won't be playing this). Then they will all see reduced profitability. When pumps break or tanks fail inspection someone will decide the market doesn't justify the investment in fixing/replacing them an so they will close and they won't be replaced (the part already happens, but there is some other new station nearby to make it up) The next part will accelerate as unprofitable gas stations go bankrupt. We will probably see some over correction in places as a corner than had 4 stations but can now only support 3 will see several go bankrupt at once, and then the one that just manages to hang on will be wildly profitable. The last part will see us where gas is hard to get. If you have an ICE it is no longer a case of when the fuel gauge is low you stop for fuel, it is you know where the stations you use are and ensure you can get back to them. when on a road trip you plan around where gas stations are (much like EV cars have to now, but soon an EV will find chargers every 20 miles and so won't have to worry - some places already have EV chargers that dense) Note that I said nothing about refineries. Many of them have better management and are watching this. At least some are already watching this and making plans to reduce size as it happens, between that and non-travel markets they will be okay for longer and probably can spin down their business. Watch out for the small ones: some of them are only running today because when they shutdown they have to cleanup decades of pollution - expect a bunch of "EPA superfund" projects around them. I believe Norway is already close to the first mark above, and probably other countries. I expect to see it show up in data (that I have no clue how to access) soon.
- heipei 4y ago
  The economies of gas stations will be interesting to watch for sure. Given that they already make only a few cents of profit per gallon sold, their main source of profit is probably all the additional things (pizza and beer at 2am or on Sundays where everything else is closed here in Germany). Couple that with the fact that EV owners will spend more time at a station due to charging times, the switch to EV might honestly drive up their profitability quite substantially. And once you can get rid of pumps you just eliminated maintenance of moving/pumping machinery, fire hazards, regular visits by fuel trucks, and probably a lot of other things I'm not even aware of. I'm not saying I'm right on any of these, but I'm really curious to see how this plays out. There's gonna be some "wow, I didn't think that would happen" moments along the way.
- fomine3 4y ago
  It will happen but this story lacks that electrifying trucks is slower. Big gas station will remain and possibly gasoline become far expensive than diesel?

bluGill 4y ago

Some will be. However I think we will see a cliff. As ICE cars become less popular gas stations and the refineries supplying them will close. This will start happening when EVs have been 25% of the new market for 3 years, and accelerate when they have been 50% for 3 years. By the time EVs are 75% of the new market gas will start becoming expensive and so EVs will quickly jump to 98%, and people with ICEs will start to plan trips around where to get fuel. That last 1-2% will be some niches that cannot use an EV for some reason, and so they will lobby to reverse the law - but by then it will be too late for ICEs: a few years latter those with an ICE will special order fuel from the last refinery remaining in the world. It will start slow: gas stations will be less profitable, but investors/banks will take time to catch on so they will be built in larger numbers than the numbers justify (if you are an investor take note: there is opportunity to make money in shorts if you get it right - I'm not an investor so I won't be playing this). Then they will all see reduced profitability. When pumps break or tanks fail inspection someone will decide the market doesn't justify the investment in fixing/replacing them an so they will close and they won't be replaced (the part already happens, but there is some other new station nearby to make it up) The next part will accelerate as unprofitable gas stations go bankrupt. We will probably see some over correction in places as a corner than had 4 stations but can now only support 3 will see several go bankrupt at once, and then the one that just manages to hang on will be wildly profitable. The last part will see us where gas is hard to get. If you have an ICE it is no longer a case of when the fuel gauge is low you stop for fuel, it is you know where the stations you use are and ensure you can get back to them. when on a road trip you plan around where gas stations are (much like EV cars have to now, but soon an EV will find chargers every 20 miles and so won't have to worry - some places already have EV chargers that dense) Note that I said nothing about refineries. Many of them have better management and are watching this. At least some are already watching this and making plans to reduce size as it happens, between that and non-travel markets they will be okay for longer and probably can spin down their business. Watch out for the small ones: some of them are only running today because when they shutdown they have to cleanup decades of pollution - expect a bunch of "EPA superfund" projects around them. I believe Norway is already close to the first mark above, and probably other countries. I expect to see it show up in data (that I have no clue how to access) soon.

heipei 4y ago
The economies of gas stations will be interesting to watch for sure. Given that they already make only a few cents of profit per gallon sold, their main source of profit is probably all the additional things (pizza and beer at 2am or on Sundays where everything else is closed here in Germany). Couple that with the fact that EV owners will spend more time at a station due to charging times, the switch to EV might honestly drive up their profitability quite substantially. And once you can get rid of pumps you just eliminated maintenance of moving/pumping machinery, fire hazards, regular visits by fuel trucks, and probably a lot of other things I'm not even aware of. I'm not saying I'm right on any of these, but I'm really curious to see how this plays out. There's gonna be some "wow, I didn't think that would happen" moments along the way.
fomine3 4y ago
It will happen but this story lacks that electrifying trucks is slower. Big gas station will remain and possibly gasoline become far expensive than diesel?