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> The air district estimated that the new rules for homes would cut nitrogen oxides enough to prevent 89 deaths per year in the Bay Area. A unit that does duct

> The air district estimated that the new rules for homes would cut nitrogen oxides enough to prevent 89 deaths per year in the Bay Area. A unit that does ducted heating and AC is around $13k installed. And the water heater is probably around $4k installed if you include electrical (which you're gonna have to if you have gas). So you're looking at forcing about 2 million houses to spend $17k to save 89 people per year. That's $34 billion. 89 people a year. The state would be bankrupt if they had these safety standards anywhere else, but when it's other people's money, who gives a fuck.

adrianN 4y ago
It saves 89 people from NOx-related deaths. It is also a necessary step to reach carbon neutrality, which will save more lives.
- reissbaker 4y ago
  Do you think that $34 billion could save, say, more than 89 people if spent on a more effective plan?
  - adrianN 4y ago
    Sure, you could spend the money to build renewables and electrify some developing nation. But it would be a hard political sale to ask two million Californians to spend a couple thousand dollars to help people in Africa or wherever.
  - apple4ever 4y ago
    Too often people forget to make this type of calculation. I get it - it sucks to have to make that type of choice! But in a world with limited resources - of which the cost is just an indirect indication of - we have to. We need to better understand the downsides and alternatives of proposed, not just the upsides. We need to not call people who point them out "killers who hate the environment" and instead listen and work together toward the best solution possible, not the one that sounds the best without understand the details.
prpl 4y ago
Asking because I’m genuinely curious (because I’ve seen list prices and I’m trying to decide how much cheaper it is to move a gas line than to just swap out a heat pump for current furnace/AC - Is your estimate of $13k in the bay area? Are you including ducting in that estimate? Is that for a 2,3, or 4 ton system? Does that include electrical upgrades? I’ve seen the list prices of 2 ton systems at $4k (if available). I have a modern AC/Furnace and ducting, but a very inconvenient gas line. I actually just paid $2200 for a gas line to another location in the house for a tankless, so I’m not planning on switching to gas completely. The water heater situation seemed more annoying to try to go electric. The tankless heaters are cheaper, but you’re looking at 30kW/120A for 9GPM service. I decided it was slightly cheaper to go gas (heater will now be outside, so heat pump would have been hard too)
- YeBanKo 4y ago
  Did you go inline gas (tankless) water heater? I am trying to figure out if it makes sense to switch to inline from tank water heater?
  - prpl 4y ago
    Yes, I am going to install a Rinnai RSC199eN. Haven’t quite got there yet as I am doing a repipe myself and will relocate washer/dryer too a bit later (basically will reclaim the former mechanical room, which is almost 8x8) For me, I really needed the inline tankless installed outdoors - so it will be worth it (lose a messy laundry room, gain a bedroom). I figured upgrading to 400A service panel would take longer and be more annoying than doing gas.
iudqnolq 4y ago
Your math relies on a fundamental misunderstanding. Assuming the Bay Area won't construct a significant number of new homes we only need to look at existing homes. The rule only covers new installations, which will be mostly people replacing broken systems and a few upgrades. How much more will it cost to replace your furnace when it has to be electric compared to when you could replace with gas? That turns out to be the wrong question too, though. Per Angie's list the averages heat pump install costs $1,514 less than the averages gas furnace install [1]. Gas vs electric boilers costs around the same, so let's say the savings from the heat pump install and the loss from needing to upgrade your electrical system even out and the unit replacements cost about the same. But you lose money on the routine operating costs. A rough estimate [2] based on Bay Area Dec 2022 energy prices [3] estimates that a 60,000 btu gas furnace would cost $579 less annually to operate than an analogous 5 ton heat pump with a good HSPF rating (10). Is this a crazy amount to spend every year per household on saving that many people? (Interestingly the the Bay Area spends around the same on cops per household[4], but there's no good data on how many lives that saves.) Edit: Even if you disagree that the replacement costs about the same, remember to divide the delta by the 10-15 year lifespan of the unit so that your cost and lives saved are in the same unit. [1] https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-heat-pump-cost.htm https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-heat-pump-cost.h... [2] https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-it-cost-install-electric-furnace.htm#additional-costs https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-it-cost-install-... [2] https://www.pickhvac.com/hvac/furnace-vs-heat-pump-cost/ https://www.pickhvac.com/hvac/furnace-vs-heat-pump-cost/ [3] https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/averageenergyprices_sanfrancisco.htm https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/averageenergyp... [4] SF + San Jose + Oakland police, not counting state troopers, was 1.079B in 2021 per https://cities.bythenumbers.sco.ca.gov/#!/year/2021/operating/0/subcategory_2/Police_Current+Expenditures/0/entity_name?vis=barChart https://cities.bythenumbers.sco.ca.gov/#!/year/2021/operatin...

adrianN 4y ago

It saves 89 people from NOx-related deaths. It is also a necessary step to reach carbon neutrality, which will save more lives.

reissbaker 4y ago
Do you think that $34 billion could save, say, more than 89 people if spent on a more effective plan?
- adrianN 4y ago
  Sure, you could spend the money to build renewables and electrify some developing nation. But it would be a hard political sale to ask two million Californians to spend a couple thousand dollars to help people in Africa or wherever.
- apple4ever 4y ago
  Too often people forget to make this type of calculation. I get it - it sucks to have to make that type of choice! But in a world with limited resources - of which the cost is just an indirect indication of - we have to. We need to better understand the downsides and alternatives of proposed, not just the upsides. We need to not call people who point them out "killers who hate the environment" and instead listen and work together toward the best solution possible, not the one that sounds the best without understand the details.

prpl 4y ago

Asking because I’m genuinely curious (because I’ve seen list prices and I’m trying to decide how much cheaper it is to move a gas line than to just swap out a heat pump for current furnace/AC - Is your estimate of $13k in the bay area? Are you including ducting in that estimate? Is that for a 2,3, or 4 ton system? Does that include electrical upgrades? I’ve seen the list prices of 2 ton systems at $4k (if available). I have a modern AC/Furnace and ducting, but a very inconvenient gas line. I actually just paid $2200 for a gas line to another location in the house for a tankless, so I’m not planning on switching to gas completely. The water heater situation seemed more annoying to try to go electric. The tankless heaters are cheaper, but you’re looking at 30kW/120A for 9GPM service. I decided it was slightly cheaper to go gas (heater will now be outside, so heat pump would have been hard too)

YeBanKo 4y ago
Did you go inline gas (tankless) water heater? I am trying to figure out if it makes sense to switch to inline from tank water heater?
- prpl 4y ago
  Yes, I am going to install a Rinnai RSC199eN. Haven’t quite got there yet as I am doing a repipe myself and will relocate washer/dryer too a bit later (basically will reclaim the former mechanical room, which is almost 8x8) For me, I really needed the inline tankless installed outdoors - so it will be worth it (lose a messy laundry room, gain a bedroom). I figured upgrading to 400A service panel would take longer and be more annoying than doing gas.

iudqnolq 4y ago

Your math relies on a fundamental misunderstanding. Assuming the Bay Area won't construct a significant number of new homes we only need to look at existing homes. The rule only covers new installations, which will be mostly people replacing broken systems and a few upgrades. How much more will it cost to replace your furnace when it has to be electric compared to when you could replace with gas? That turns out to be the wrong question too, though. Per Angie's list the averages heat pump install costs $1,514 less than the averages gas furnace install [1]. Gas vs electric boilers costs around the same, so let's say the savings from the heat pump install and the loss from needing to upgrade your electrical system even out and the unit replacements cost about the same. But you lose money on the routine operating costs. A rough estimate [2] based on Bay Area Dec 2022 energy prices [3] estimates that a 60,000 btu gas furnace would cost $579 less annually to operate than an analogous 5 ton heat pump with a good HSPF rating (10). Is this a crazy amount to spend every year per household on saving that many people? (Interestingly the the Bay Area spends around the same on cops per household[4], but there's no good data on how many lives that saves.) Edit: Even if you disagree that the replacement costs about the same, remember to divide the delta by the 10-15 year lifespan of the unit so that your cost and lives saved are in the same unit. [1] https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-heat-pump-cost.htm https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-heat-pump-cost.h... [2] https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-it-cost-install-electric-furnace.htm#additional-costs https://www.angi.com/articles/how-much-does-it-cost-install-... [2] https://www.pickhvac.com/hvac/furnace-vs-heat-pump-cost/ https://www.pickhvac.com/hvac/furnace-vs-heat-pump-cost/ [3] https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/averageenergyprices_sanfrancisco.htm https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/news-release/averageenergyp... [4] SF + San Jose + Oakland police, not counting state troopers, was 1.079B in 2021 per https://cities.bythenumbers.sco.ca.gov/#!/year/2021/operating/0/subcategory_2/Police_Current+Expenditures/0/entity_name?vis=barChart https://cities.bythenumbers.sco.ca.gov/#!/year/2021/operatin...