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I don't think so. The end point of that curve is models with human like reasoning or even superhuman ability. I think we may be on the S part of the curve, bu
by bioemerl 4y ago
I don't think so. The end point of that curve is models with human like reasoning or even superhuman ability.
I think we may be on the S part of the curve, but thanks to processing concerns we will be in for veeeeeerrryyyy gentle slope on that S. Capital is getting more expensive, processors getting less fast, and in general tech is burdened with a slowdown.
We are in for a revolution, I believe, but one that will be a bit slower than the internet. More akin to maybe the revolution of chemical engineering, something that lasts a lifetime instead of a decade.
- marginalia_nu 4y ago> I don't think so. The end point of that curve is models with human like reasoning or even superhuman ability. What makes you think that?
- bioemerl 4y agoBecause we are a living example of what is eventually possible with "artificial" intelligence. If we exist, it can at least match us.
- marginalia_nu 4y agoExpert systems and various other previous artificial intelligence systems failed to rise to our level of capability. Why should we expect large language models to be different?
- bioemerl 4y agoI'm not really talking about LLMs specifically. I'm talking about AI as a field. Although neural networks are capable of any form of reasoning or understanding and human language is a very strongly diverse field so I do believe LLMs are a strong contender for the production of general AI. Lots of data. Easy to train thanks to text being very simple. Easy to express just about any concept or information. Requires some amount of domain knowledge to make good prediction of what comes next.