I expect ChatGPT to be in a sort of equivalent of the uncanny valley, where any professional who gets to the point that they can routinely use it will also be i

I expect ChatGPT to be in a sort of equivalent of the uncanny valley, where any professional who gets to the point that they can routinely use it will also be in a constant war with their own brain to remind it that the output must be carefully checked. In some ways, the 99.99% reliable process used at scale is more dangerous than the 50% reliable process; everyone can see the latter needs help. It's the former where it's so very, very tempting to just let it go. I'm not saying ChatGPT is 99.99% reliable, just using some numbers for concreteness. If you were setting out to design an AI that would slip the maximum amount of error into exactly the places human brains don't want to look, it would look like ChatGPT. You can see this in the way that as far as I know, literally all the ads for GPT-like search technologies included significant errors in their ad copy, which you would think everyone involved would have every motivation to error check. This is not merely a "ha ha, silly humans" story... this means something. In a weird sort of way it is a testament to the technology... no sarcasm! But it makes it dangerous for human brains. Human brains are machines for not spending energy on cognitive tasks. They are very good at it, in all senses of the phrase. We get very good bang-for-the-buck with our shortcuts in the real world. But GPT techs are going to make it really, really easy to not spend the energy to check after a little while. This is a known problem with human brains. How many people can tell the story of what may be the closest human equivalent, where they got some intern, paid a ton of attention to them for the first two weeks, got to the point where they flipped the "OK they're good now" bit on them, and then came back to a complete and utter clusterfuck at the end of their internship because the supervisor got "too lazy" (although there's more judgment in that phrase than I like, this is a brain thing you couldn't survive without, not just "laziness") to check everything closely enough? They may even have been glancing at the PRs the whole time and only put together how bad the mess is at the end. I'm not going to invite a technology like this into my life. The next generation, we'll see when it gets here. But GPT is very scary because its in the AI uncanny valley... very good, very good at hiding the problems from human brains, and not quite good enough to actually do the job. And you know, since we're not talking theory here, we'll be running this experiment in the real world. You use ChatGPT to build your code, and I won't. You and I personally of course won't be comparing notes, but as a group, we sure will be. I absolutely agree there will be a point where ChatGPT seems to be pulling ahead in the productivity curve in a short term, but I predict that won't hold and it will turn net negative at some point. But I don't know right now, any more than you do. We can but put our metaphorical money down and see how the metaphorical chips fall.