I have a mild question: Ukraine war outlook in 3 months China will face a severe shortage of fertilizer(they get that from Russia at over 80%) along with India

I have a mild question: Ukraine war outlook in 3 months China will face a severe shortage of fertilizer(they get that from Russia at over 80%) along with India and since those are two big supply chains it might be that all these companies see a rise in one of their inputs via the supply chain disruption in the future towards April-May as decreasing their profits while at the same time increasing other costs. So my question is why is everyone assuming that it is some other economic force than this if this is the actual looming economic near term disaster? Think back a full year when we had the last supply chain disruption, did not Governments step in a fund grants to prevent the rise in input costs?