4 ms·

Worse probably means something like "accidents per mile". Edit: was curious, so I did the math. The standard unit seems to be 'crashes per 100 million miles' s

Worse probably means something like "accidents per mile". Edit: was curious, so I did the math. The standard unit seems to be 'crashes per 100 million miles' so according to the Tesla safety report (only source on Autopilot safety I could find easily) that works out to [0]: one accident for every 4.41 million miles driven = 22.7 accidents per 100 million miles. Without autopilot, the AAA foundation (again, easily available source, feel free to find a better one, this is from 2014) [1] says that our best drivers are in the 60-69 age range, and have 241 accidents per 100 million miles. Our worst drivers are our younger teens (duh) with 1432 crashes per 100 million miles. So unless you can find better data that contradicts this, Autopilot seems like a net benefit. [0] https://insideevs.com/news/537818/tesla-autopilot-safety-report-2021q2/ https://insideevs.com/news/537818/tesla-autopilot-safety-rep... [1] https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuries-deaths-relation-driver-age-united-states-2014-2015/ https://aaafoundation.org/rates-motor-vehicle-crashes-injuri...

alldayeveryday 4y ago
I think your analysis is a good one given the data we have, and can be used to draw some conclusions or guide general discussion. However the analysis is indeed limited by the data available. The AAA data does not consider variability by gender, race, socioeconomics, location, etc. Further it does not normalize variability in the types of driving being done (teslas have limited range, are not towing trailers, etc), nor other technological advances (modern vs older vehicles).
danso 4y ago
Autopilot only works on highways and decent weather and visibility — i.e. the least accident-prone scenarios possible. AFAIK, AAA’s stats count accidents in all situations
FartyMcFarter 4y ago
That is an apples to oranges comparison for several reasons, including: - People don't use autopilot in all situations, its use is biased towards the easiest driving conditions. - Your non-autopilot statistics include old cars that have fewer safety systems. A real comparison would normalise for these factors, which isn't trivial to do.

alldayeveryday 4y ago

I think your analysis is a good one given the data we have, and can be used to draw some conclusions or guide general discussion. However the analysis is indeed limited by the data available. The AAA data does not consider variability by gender, race, socioeconomics, location, etc. Further it does not normalize variability in the types of driving being done (teslas have limited range, are not towing trailers, etc), nor other technological advances (modern vs older vehicles).

danso 4y ago

Autopilot only works on highways and decent weather and visibility — i.e. the least accident-prone scenarios possible. AFAIK, AAA’s stats count accidents in all situations

FartyMcFarter 4y ago

That is an apples to oranges comparison for several reasons, including: - People don't use autopilot in all situations, its use is biased towards the easiest driving conditions. - Your non-autopilot statistics include old cars that have fewer safety systems. A real comparison would normalise for these factors, which isn't trivial to do.