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Why would it hit the limit of its abilities? Almost all tech has room for progress, ChatGPT is no different, it's just a question of how fast that progress wil

by kypro 4y ago

Why would it hit the limit of its abilities? Almost all tech has room for progress, ChatGPT is no different, it's just a question of how fast that progress will be. You can roughly predict the rate of future progress by looking at how quickly advancements have been made in the recent past. In my opinion AI looks like computers in the 70s/80s or cars in the 40s. The tech isn't completely new, but significant improvements are being made every year. I think the burden of proof would be on you to explain why advancements in AI would stop right here. Conveniently right around the time when AI is able to write code fairly well but with a few bugs.

riku_iki 4y ago
> Almost all tech has room for progress, ChatGPT is no different, it's just a question of how fast that progress will be. all tech have also its limits, we could use internal combustion engines in the car, and even in some airplanes, but we have problems with this tech in building fighter jets and then spaceships. The same is about ChatGPT, it is good to spill texts it seen during the training, or do slight transformation on it, but there were multiple attempts to teach NN do some algorithmic work, and it always failed miserably afaik.
- monkeynotes 4y ago
  And just like ICEs and jets, each tech increasingly became otherworldly and revolutionary at doing what it does well.
  - riku_iki 4y ago
    > each tech lol, of course not each tech. You picked cars as example, but it was one of the most transformative advancements, and for each such advancements there are hundred thousands with moderate impact, and tens millions failures.
  - riku_iki 4y ago
    > became otherworldly and revolutionary at doing what it does well also, it is yet to be proven that ChatGPT will do well in any job requiring significant reasoning skills.
    - monkeynotes 4y ago
      Good thing that not all of the use cases that are finding footholds today require skills it does not yet have. Why are "significant reasoning skills" needed to help you write a song, or help rewrite your resume, or find an answer to a niche piece of knowledge, or fuck... this is exhausting. I'd have thought that people on HN would have far more vision than this. For every single "well it can't do that yet" observation there are dozens of use cases people are finding TODAY. It's already widely useful and this is year one.
      - riku_iki 4y ago
        > Why are "significant reasoning skills" needed to help you write a song, or help rewrite your resume, or find an answer to a niche piece of knowledge, or fuck... this is exhausting. discussion started with person claiming that soon chatgpt will be trained on docs, code and jira tickets and completely replace engineers, which imo will require significant reasoning skill. I agree that for those tasks you described, chatgpt may find its niche.
      - monkeynotes 4y ago
        @riku_iki That was actually me. And it already can write Jiras, scaffold code, and help write docs. Doesn't need any significant reasoning, just a well trained model and contextual data. However, I didn't say it was going to 100% replace anyone. The horizon looks like GPT will become a significant assistant tool for numerous tasks. I think it will need humans to review and approve output and direct it for the foreseeable future.
        riku_iki 4y ago
        > And it already can write Jiras, scaffold code, and help write docs. yes, and my hypothesis that's where it will stop, because core meaningful engineering work on complex product/system requires way more reasoning abilities.
unraveller 4y ago
New things arouse suspicion, even if they've been seen before. Mobile phones were plenty smart before Smartphones. The new thing occupies inhabited space so something has to be sacrificed. All well and good when it's usually your enemy's space on the chopping block but mainstream media haven't yet told people if this kind of progress is generally desirable. The flock is flying blind so they default back to conservatism... for now.
goatlover 4y ago
Because it's not AGI and all technology has limitations. Also because it's easy to imagine a hyped tech doing anything. Much harder to make that work.

by kypro 4y ago

riku_iki 4y ago

> Almost all tech has room for progress, ChatGPT is no different, it's just a question of how fast that progress will be. all tech have also its limits, we could use internal combustion engines in the car, and even in some airplanes, but we have problems with this tech in building fighter jets and then spaceships. The same is about ChatGPT, it is good to spill texts it seen during the training, or do slight transformation on it, but there were multiple attempts to teach NN do some algorithmic work, and it always failed miserably afaik.

monkeynotes 4y ago
And just like ICEs and jets, each tech increasingly became otherworldly and revolutionary at doing what it does well.
- riku_iki 4y ago
  > each tech lol, of course not each tech. You picked cars as example, but it was one of the most transformative advancements, and for each such advancements there are hundred thousands with moderate impact, and tens millions failures.
- riku_iki 4y ago
  > became otherworldly and revolutionary at doing what it does well also, it is yet to be proven that ChatGPT will do well in any job requiring significant reasoning skills.
  - monkeynotes 4y ago
    Good thing that not all of the use cases that are finding footholds today require skills it does not yet have. Why are "significant reasoning skills" needed to help you write a song, or help rewrite your resume, or find an answer to a niche piece of knowledge, or fuck... this is exhausting. I'd have thought that people on HN would have far more vision than this. For every single "well it can't do that yet" observation there are dozens of use cases people are finding TODAY. It's already widely useful and this is year one.
    - riku_iki 4y ago
      > Why are "significant reasoning skills" needed to help you write a song, or help rewrite your resume, or find an answer to a niche piece of knowledge, or fuck... this is exhausting. discussion started with person claiming that soon chatgpt will be trained on docs, code and jira tickets and completely replace engineers, which imo will require significant reasoning skill. I agree that for those tasks you described, chatgpt may find its niche.
    - monkeynotes 4y ago
      @riku_iki That was actually me. And it already can write Jiras, scaffold code, and help write docs. Doesn't need any significant reasoning, just a well trained model and contextual data. However, I didn't say it was going to 100% replace anyone. The horizon looks like GPT will become a significant assistant tool for numerous tasks. I think it will need humans to review and approve output and direct it for the foreseeable future.
      - riku_iki 4y ago
        > And it already can write Jiras, scaffold code, and help write docs. yes, and my hypothesis that's where it will stop, because core meaningful engineering work on complex product/system requires way more reasoning abilities.

unraveller 4y ago

New things arouse suspicion, even if they've been seen before. Mobile phones were plenty smart before Smartphones. The new thing occupies inhabited space so something has to be sacrificed. All well and good when it's usually your enemy's space on the chopping block but mainstream media haven't yet told people if this kind of progress is generally desirable. The flock is flying blind so they default back to conservatism... for now.

goatlover 4y ago

Because it's not AGI and all technology has limitations. Also because it's easy to imagine a hyped tech doing anything. Much harder to make that work.