4 ms·

I was saying the same thing to a colleague a couple of weeks back. The power of ChatGPT will become obvious when it's sucking in all of an orgs data. At that p

by kypro 4y ago

I was saying the same thing to a colleague a couple of weeks back. The power of ChatGPT will become obvious when it's sucking in all of an orgs data. At that point instead of your boss asking you to send an email to someone or asking the data team to pull some stat, they'll just ask the chatbot to do it for them. My guess is 80%+ of the work most people in corporate jobs do could fairly easily be automated with the next generation of GPT being fully integrated with an organisations data and tools. It's so obvious the power of this technology. Those saying ChatGPT is still making a few programming errors with their crappy prompts are missing the point. Wait until a slightly more advanced version of GPT has access to your dev documentation + all your repos + your jira ticket board + your dev environment. You won't even need to ask it to do anything. Your boss is going to quickly wonder why they need a team of 20 devs when a team of 2 devs reviewing ChatGPT pull requests is 10x more efficient.

mlsu 4y ago
If you thought tech debt was bad with human programmers...
- Swizec 4y ago
  When the funding horizon for your company or project is shorter than the tech debt horizon, the biz pick tech debt every time. Color me jaded, but I don’t care if the crud feature du jour is full of tech debt when we’re gonna throw it out in 3 months anyway.
- theGnuMe 4y ago
  Managing outsourced programmers is hard enough...
- fragmede 4y ago
  Just ask ChatGPT to refactor the code and have it pay down the tech debt.
somewhereoutth 4y ago
> Wait until a slightly more advanced version Yes, and therein lies the issue - that last crucial 1%, 0.1% may be impossible to achieve (sort of like attaining lightspeed travel)
- version_five 4y ago
  ... Or self driving cars. At some point they were only a couple years away
  - monkeynotes 4y ago
    The Internet... I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse. - Robert Metcalfe, in InfoWorld, 1995 Most things that succeed don’t require retraining 250 million people. - Brian Carpenter, in the Associated Press, 1995 Tim Berners-Lee forgot to make an expiry date compulsory . . . any information can just be left and forgotten. It could stay on the network until it is five years out of date. - Brian Carpenter, in the Associated Press, 1995
- anonyfox 4y ago
  to be fair, looks like we can circumvent the issue by leapfrogging into faster-than-light speeds. I've seen somewhere that real (albeit tiny) warp bubbles were achieved in a lab recently, so its not too far off into SciFi land... probably only a few decades (tm) until its here :D
- kypro 4y ago
  The last 1% isn't crucial when doing something as non-critical as sending an email or changing an input field on a website. I write bad emails and deploy awful code all the time. For 99% of problems it just needs to be good enough. The fact some people argue ChatGPT already is already good enough for a lot of use cases should indicate we're not that far from something just as reliable as a human programmer.
riku_iki 4y ago
> Wait until a slightly more advanced version of GPT has access to your dev documentation + all your repos + your jira ticket board + your dev environment. why you are so confident chatgpt ever will be able to work as independent dev and won't hit the limit of it's abilities?
- kypro 4y ago
  Why would it hit the limit of its abilities? Almost all tech has room for progress, ChatGPT is no different, it's just a question of how fast that progress will be. You can roughly predict the rate of future progress by looking at how quickly advancements have been made in the recent past. In my opinion AI looks like computers in the 70s/80s or cars in the 40s. The tech isn't completely new, but significant improvements are being made every year. I think the burden of proof would be on you to explain why advancements in AI would stop right here. Conveniently right around the time when AI is able to write code fairly well but with a few bugs.
  - riku_iki 4y ago
    > Almost all tech has room for progress, ChatGPT is no different, it's just a question of how fast that progress will be. all tech have also its limits, we could use internal combustion engines in the car, and even in some airplanes, but we have problems with this tech in building fighter jets and then spaceships. The same is about ChatGPT, it is good to spill texts it seen during the training, or do slight transformation on it, but there were multiple attempts to teach NN do some algorithmic work, and it always failed miserably afaik.
    - monkeynotes 4y ago
      And just like ICEs and jets, each tech increasingly became otherworldly and revolutionary at doing what it does well.
      - riku_iki 4y ago
        > each tech lol, of course not each tech. You picked cars as example, but it was one of the most transformative advancements, and for each such advancements there are hundred thousands with moderate impact, and tens millions failures.
JieJie 4y ago
Or all twenty devs stay and eighty more get hired because DevGPT can do 100x more work in the same amount of time.
RhysU 4y ago
> The power of ChatGPT will become obvious when it's sucking in all of an orgs data. I am having a hard time seeing this. Intranet/corporate search has forever been awful in comparison to internet search.
- monkeynotes 4y ago
  And that's why traditional search is going to give way to GPT search. It solves this problem more or less already. Feed it web pages and you can talk to it, guide it with a conversation etc. Here is a realistic example for how searching Intranet could look in 5 years time: ----------- > Employee: Hey CorpGod; where is that document that had some information about our new project management processes? You know, the one I had open like 2 weeks ago > CorpGod: Oh, you mean the one your boss asked you to read by Friday? It's here [link] > Employee: No, that's not it. It's the one that we copied and made edits to after that, I can't find it. > CorpGod: That got deleted after Employee2 made a copy and published it. It's here on the Wiki [link] ----------- GPT already does stuff like that with data from the Internet.
  - goatlover 4y ago
    What makes you think GPT can be trained that fast so that it keeps up with newer documents, discussions, etc? It takes a long time for GPT models to come out. chatGPT is 2021 internet data, and you had a lot of people involved that made it possible. Do you envision the LLM constantly being fed updates by crawlers and indexers, with no need for human review or intervention?
    - 4b11b4 4y ago
      Yes. This is what MS will do with Teams.
    - monkeynotes 4y ago
      Yes. If I was on OpenAI's board or product team, this is exactly where I'd be trying to go. It's a purely technical challenge with nothing standing in its way beyond regular engineering problem solving. 1) Scaling 2) Efficiency 4) Quality 5) Security Some of these may be super-duper hard problems, but hard problems worth solving = massive opportunity. If IBM could put space age technology into corporate offices in the 50s, we can put dystopian era technology into offices in the 2020s. At first it will be stupidly expensive, and only the big players will be able to take advantage of the cost to benefit ratio, but in time it will more than likely be on your phone.

by kypro 4y ago

mlsu 4y ago

If you thought tech debt was bad with human programmers...

Swizec 4y ago
When the funding horizon for your company or project is shorter than the tech debt horizon, the biz pick tech debt every time. Color me jaded, but I don’t care if the crud feature du jour is full of tech debt when we’re gonna throw it out in 3 months anyway.
theGnuMe 4y ago
Managing outsourced programmers is hard enough...
fragmede 4y ago
Just ask ChatGPT to refactor the code and have it pay down the tech debt.

somewhereoutth 4y ago

> Wait until a slightly more advanced version Yes, and therein lies the issue - that last crucial 1%, 0.1% may be impossible to achieve (sort of like attaining lightspeed travel)

version_five 4y ago
... Or self driving cars. At some point they were only a couple years away
- monkeynotes 4y ago
  The Internet... I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse. - Robert Metcalfe, in InfoWorld, 1995 Most things that succeed don’t require retraining 250 million people. - Brian Carpenter, in the Associated Press, 1995 Tim Berners-Lee forgot to make an expiry date compulsory . . . any information can just be left and forgotten. It could stay on the network until it is five years out of date. - Brian Carpenter, in the Associated Press, 1995
anonyfox 4y ago
to be fair, looks like we can circumvent the issue by leapfrogging into faster-than-light speeds. I've seen somewhere that real (albeit tiny) warp bubbles were achieved in a lab recently, so its not too far off into SciFi land... probably only a few decades (tm) until its here :D
kypro 4y ago
The last 1% isn't crucial when doing something as non-critical as sending an email or changing an input field on a website. I write bad emails and deploy awful code all the time. For 99% of problems it just needs to be good enough. The fact some people argue ChatGPT already is already good enough for a lot of use cases should indicate we're not that far from something just as reliable as a human programmer.

riku_iki 4y ago

> Wait until a slightly more advanced version of GPT has access to your dev documentation + all your repos + your jira ticket board + your dev environment. why you are so confident chatgpt ever will be able to work as independent dev and won't hit the limit of it's abilities?

kypro 4y ago
Why would it hit the limit of its abilities? Almost all tech has room for progress, ChatGPT is no different, it's just a question of how fast that progress will be. You can roughly predict the rate of future progress by looking at how quickly advancements have been made in the recent past. In my opinion AI looks like computers in the 70s/80s or cars in the 40s. The tech isn't completely new, but significant improvements are being made every year. I think the burden of proof would be on you to explain why advancements in AI would stop right here. Conveniently right around the time when AI is able to write code fairly well but with a few bugs.
- riku_iki 4y ago
  > Almost all tech has room for progress, ChatGPT is no different, it's just a question of how fast that progress will be. all tech have also its limits, we could use internal combustion engines in the car, and even in some airplanes, but we have problems with this tech in building fighter jets and then spaceships. The same is about ChatGPT, it is good to spill texts it seen during the training, or do slight transformation on it, but there were multiple attempts to teach NN do some algorithmic work, and it always failed miserably afaik.
  - monkeynotes 4y ago
    And just like ICEs and jets, each tech increasingly became otherworldly and revolutionary at doing what it does well.
    - riku_iki 4y ago
      > each tech lol, of course not each tech. You picked cars as example, but it was one of the most transformative advancements, and for each such advancements there are hundred thousands with moderate impact, and tens millions failures.

JieJie 4y ago

Or all twenty devs stay and eighty more get hired because DevGPT can do 100x more work in the same amount of time.

RhysU 4y ago

> The power of ChatGPT will become obvious when it's sucking in all of an orgs data. I am having a hard time seeing this. Intranet/corporate search has forever been awful in comparison to internet search.

monkeynotes 4y ago
And that's why traditional search is going to give way to GPT search. It solves this problem more or less already. Feed it web pages and you can talk to it, guide it with a conversation etc. Here is a realistic example for how searching Intranet could look in 5 years time: ----------- > Employee: Hey CorpGod; where is that document that had some information about our new project management processes? You know, the one I had open like 2 weeks ago > CorpGod: Oh, you mean the one your boss asked you to read by Friday? It's here [link] > Employee: No, that's not it. It's the one that we copied and made edits to after that, I can't find it. > CorpGod: That got deleted after Employee2 made a copy and published it. It's here on the Wiki [link] ----------- GPT already does stuff like that with data from the Internet.
- goatlover 4y ago
  What makes you think GPT can be trained that fast so that it keeps up with newer documents, discussions, etc? It takes a long time for GPT models to come out. chatGPT is 2021 internet data, and you had a lot of people involved that made it possible. Do you envision the LLM constantly being fed updates by crawlers and indexers, with no need for human review or intervention?
  - 4b11b4 4y ago
    Yes. This is what MS will do with Teams.
  - monkeynotes 4y ago
    Yes. If I was on OpenAI's board or product team, this is exactly where I'd be trying to go. It's a purely technical challenge with nothing standing in its way beyond regular engineering problem solving. 1) Scaling 2) Efficiency 4) Quality 5) Security Some of these may be super-duper hard problems, but hard problems worth solving = massive opportunity. If IBM could put space age technology into corporate offices in the 50s, we can put dystopian era technology into offices in the 2020s. At first it will be stupidly expensive, and only the big players will be able to take advantage of the cost to benefit ratio, but in time it will more than likely be on your phone.