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Tom Scotts video today re where we are on the AI's impact to society curve was interesting : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPhJbKBuNnA&ab_channel=TomScott htt

by neom 4y ago

Tom Scotts video today re where we are on the AI's impact to society curve was interesting : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPhJbKBuNnA&ab_channel=TomScott https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPhJbKBuNnA&ab_channel=TomSc... I think he's probably right that we're very early on the adoption curve. (even though I always get downvote and call a dumbass when I mention it here, I still think progress in quantum computing (predictive) and AI go hand in hand towards AGI.)

adamsmith143 4y ago
>(even though I always get downvote and call a dumbass when I mention it here, I still think progress in quantum computing (predictive) and AI go hand in hand towards AGI.) You get downvoted because it's not a coherent position. It's like saying I'm really bullish on renewable energy powered by web3 blockchains. It's just a mishmash of buzzwords. The reality is Quantum Computing has limited use cases in general computing and AI isn't really one of them. I don't think there's even an argument that e.g. a quantum chip offers any real advantage over a TPU or even GPU for AI tasks.
- kypro 4y ago
  I've heard some people cite quantum physics to explain free will and consciousness, although these arguments always seemed completely unsupported and a form of "god of the gaps" reasoning to me. But being charitable I suppose if you subscribe to the idea that creativity and consciousness arise from quantum behaviours then perhaps it makes sense. It would suggest we likely have the architecture of an AGI completely wrong currently though, so I'm not sure how this really relates to AIs like ChatGPT.
  - adamsmith143 4y ago
    It's not relevant at all and quantum woowoo for consciousness is just that. There don't seem to be any structures small enough in the brain to allow for quantum effects and the temperature in the brain is so high that decoherence ensures that there are likely no quantum effects present at all.
    - goatlover 4y ago
      Wigner's Friend is still a paradox that might be solved by a quantum computing AGI.
      - adamsmith143 4y ago
        Ok most of these "Paradoxes" are due to interpretation of QM. We don't have to discuss that as several interpretations resolve the so called paradox. But "Quantum Computing AGI" is a complete non sequitur. It's just not a thing that needs to exist, as I already said quantum computing doesn't bring anything new to that table for current AI technology(Deep Learning).
        neom 4y ago
        QC is good at predicting the future. https://www.livescience.com/65271-quantum-computer-sees-16-futures.html https://www.livescience.com/65271-quantum-computer-sees-16-f... https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1049/iet-qtc.2020.0026 https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1049/... https://spectrum.ieee.org/quantum-machine-learning https://spectrum.ieee.org/quantum-machine-learning
  - bakuninsbart 4y ago
    > I've heard some people cite quantum physics to explain free will and consciousness, although these arguments always seemed completely unsupported and a form of "god of the gaps" reasoning to me. Certainly a kind of god of the gaps reasoning, but actually quite relevant to our discussions of ai. If the world is fully deterministic, there's little room for the independent thought and free will we thinks makes our human existence special. We are then maybe just relatively sophisticated prediction engines, and even an LLM like ChatGPT isn't fundamentally dissimilar to us.
ksec 4y ago
It is what Nvidia's boss Jensen Huang calls [1] The iPhone moment of AI. Basically every AI ( so to speak ) before ChatGPT is like Smartphone 1.0. Blackberry, Sony Ericsson, Nokia Symbian etc. ChatGPT is the Smartphone 2.0, aka iPhone era. It look iPhone many years to reach mass adoption. MKBHD, as tech savvy as he is only had his first Smartphone in iPhone 4S era. ( If I remember correctly ). And then Phablet ( Any Screen larger than 5" ) came. I think we are at the end of that curve, 15 years after the iPhone introduction. I think ChatGPT will follow a similar path. And if it was iPhone that pushed TSMC to sustain our current semiconductor improvement for the past ~10 years, then it will be ChatGPT that pushes us towards 1A ( 1nm ) node for another decade. [1]https://wccftech.com/nvidia-ceo-calls-chatgpt-as-one-of-the-greatest-thing-ever-done-for-computing-says-its-the-iphone-moment-of-ai/ https://wccftech.com/nvidia-ceo-calls-chatgpt-as-one-of-the-...
- ryloric 4y ago
  Unrelated, I've never seen this dude without a leather jacket on.
luplex 4y ago
AGI doesn't need quantum computing, but I'm sure it will be useful when we finally figure it out. Maybe we need AI to figure out quantum computing.
noobermin 4y ago
The downvotes on QC are likely somewhat understandable. Unlike chatgpt there are no results that give hope that QC will look like "computing" any time soon unless there is a breakthrough on the horizon.

by neom 4y ago

adamsmith143 4y ago

>(even though I always get downvote and call a dumbass when I mention it here, I still think progress in quantum computing (predictive) and AI go hand in hand towards AGI.) You get downvoted because it's not a coherent position. It's like saying I'm really bullish on renewable energy powered by web3 blockchains. It's just a mishmash of buzzwords. The reality is Quantum Computing has limited use cases in general computing and AI isn't really one of them. I don't think there's even an argument that e.g. a quantum chip offers any real advantage over a TPU or even GPU for AI tasks.

kypro 4y ago
I've heard some people cite quantum physics to explain free will and consciousness, although these arguments always seemed completely unsupported and a form of "god of the gaps" reasoning to me. But being charitable I suppose if you subscribe to the idea that creativity and consciousness arise from quantum behaviours then perhaps it makes sense. It would suggest we likely have the architecture of an AGI completely wrong currently though, so I'm not sure how this really relates to AIs like ChatGPT.
- adamsmith143 4y ago
  It's not relevant at all and quantum woowoo for consciousness is just that. There don't seem to be any structures small enough in the brain to allow for quantum effects and the temperature in the brain is so high that decoherence ensures that there are likely no quantum effects present at all.
  - goatlover 4y ago
    Wigner's Friend is still a paradox that might be solved by a quantum computing AGI.
    - adamsmith143 4y ago
      Ok most of these "Paradoxes" are due to interpretation of QM. We don't have to discuss that as several interpretations resolve the so called paradox. But "Quantum Computing AGI" is a complete non sequitur. It's just not a thing that needs to exist, as I already said quantum computing doesn't bring anything new to that table for current AI technology(Deep Learning).
      - neom 4y ago
        QC is good at predicting the future. https://www.livescience.com/65271-quantum-computer-sees-16-futures.html https://www.livescience.com/65271-quantum-computer-sees-16-f... https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1049/iet-qtc.2020.0026 https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1049/... https://spectrum.ieee.org/quantum-machine-learning https://spectrum.ieee.org/quantum-machine-learning
- bakuninsbart 4y ago
  > I've heard some people cite quantum physics to explain free will and consciousness, although these arguments always seemed completely unsupported and a form of "god of the gaps" reasoning to me. Certainly a kind of god of the gaps reasoning, but actually quite relevant to our discussions of ai. If the world is fully deterministic, there's little room for the independent thought and free will we thinks makes our human existence special. We are then maybe just relatively sophisticated prediction engines, and even an LLM like ChatGPT isn't fundamentally dissimilar to us.

ksec 4y ago

It is what Nvidia's boss Jensen Huang calls [1] The iPhone moment of AI. Basically every AI ( so to speak ) before ChatGPT is like Smartphone 1.0. Blackberry, Sony Ericsson, Nokia Symbian etc. ChatGPT is the Smartphone 2.0, aka iPhone era. It look iPhone many years to reach mass adoption. MKBHD, as tech savvy as he is only had his first Smartphone in iPhone 4S era. ( If I remember correctly ). And then Phablet ( Any Screen larger than 5" ) came. I think we are at the end of that curve, 15 years after the iPhone introduction. I think ChatGPT will follow a similar path. And if it was iPhone that pushed TSMC to sustain our current semiconductor improvement for the past ~10 years, then it will be ChatGPT that pushes us towards 1A ( 1nm ) node for another decade. [1]https://wccftech.com/nvidia-ceo-calls-chatgpt-as-one-of-the-greatest-thing-ever-done-for-computing-says-its-the-iphone-moment-of-ai/ https://wccftech.com/nvidia-ceo-calls-chatgpt-as-one-of-the-...

ryloric 4y ago
Unrelated, I've never seen this dude without a leather jacket on.

luplex 4y ago

AGI doesn't need quantum computing, but I'm sure it will be useful when we finally figure it out. Maybe we need AI to figure out quantum computing.

noobermin 4y ago

The downvotes on QC are likely somewhat understandable. Unlike chatgpt there are no results that give hope that QC will look like "computing" any time soon unless there is a breakthrough on the horizon.