11 ms·

Tom Scott: I tried using AI. It scared me. [video]

53 points by Stevvo 4y ago

giardini 4y ago
So what? So will a Ouija board!
CyberDildonics 4y ago
I would guess a lot of things scare this guy. He's a clickbait youtuber who does simple stuff and tries to make it sound profound.
- sieabahlpark 4y ago
  [dead]
- sockaddr 4y ago
  That's the impression I get from his videos as well.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- royjacobs 4y ago
  That's a pretty reductive (and needlessly negative) characterisation of a YouTuber who does a great job of finding pretty random science tidbits all around the globe and making short, to-the-point videos about them.
- JCharante 4y ago
  I mean, this conversation that is talked about in the video is pretty interesting https://www.tomscott.com/fix-gmail-labels-threads/conversation-record/ https://www.tomscott.com/fix-gmail-labels-threads/conversati...
  - spookthesunset 4y ago
    that is pretty crazy, actually
scotuswroteus 4y ago
This is becoming a genre (of fiction)
- Zetobal 4y ago
  The funniest part about it is that the great 60s sci-fi writers do a better job explaining the consequences than all the view and click hustlers today.
unraveller 4y ago
Gatekeepers are right to be scared. Information wants to be free, it doesn't want to be traded for a story and a pat on the back.
- mkaic 4y ago
  Genuine question: Are you characterizing Tom Scott as a gatekeeper here, or am I misinterpreting your comment? I am not sure what your intention is here and would appreciate clarification.
- doomleika 4y ago
  Some of the gatekeeper might be out. Now OpenAI(or whoever controls it down the line) have the complete monopoly. Not that I am denying the future(Nasper in the 00s proved that). I am wondering what's the next best course as an individual.
mkaic 4y ago
I am an AI researcher, and I wholeheartedly agree with Tom here. I love AI, I love designing and training models and seeing all the amazing things they can do. But I would be lying if I said I wasn't scared. Like Tom, I have no idea where on the sigmoid curve we are, but I personally believe we're very near the beginning. I thought that becoming a practitioner in this field would make me less susceptible to making big, sweeping claims about it, but I've found the opposite to be true—the more I learn, the more I am convinced that AI will change everything in a manner at least as radical as the internet, if not more. In my opinion, society is completely unprepared for this change and for the new ethical dilemmas, challenges, tools, discoveries, and advancements it will enable. ChatGPT is a proof-of-concept. There are agents far, far more capable than it on their way, and it is impossible to know for sure how they will impact the world at large. We are observing science fiction become science fact and it is really unnerving at times. Tom is a smart and thoughtful guy, and I think he's right on the money with this video.
- guluarte 4y ago
  There's nothing intelligent in ChatGPT, it's just a text generator on steroids, web spammers have been using this sort of tools for years. It cannot generate new ideas, at the end it just regurgitates content
  - mkaic 4y ago
    > It cannot generate new ideas. I don't find very much substance in this argument, given how impossible it is to consistently define "new" and "idea" in this context. At the end of the day, ChatGPT demonstrates that AI models are making real progress towards convincing mimicry of human behavior. How it does it is of no concern to me, what is concerning is the fact that it does it at all.
    - guluarte 4y ago
      it doesn't generate new ideas, it just answers based on statistics, it will be more like a personal search assitant or a tool that helps people finding information
bsaul 4y ago
Not an AI researcher, but share the feeling. This looks like industrialisation, except the things we’re going to automate the production of is what i was 100% sure was human’s core specificity : creative process under any form, and low-impact information production. Yet we’re living in the information age. Meaning, at least in the west, the majority of economical activities is going to be impacted and not in a pretty way.
mikewarot 4y ago
So, fellow HN users... where are we on the S curve? I think we're right before the hockey stick, just like the days of Napster. To use another analogy - The Industrial Revolution didn't make it possible to make screws, it made it possible to make a box of screws that you could sell for a dollar. Previously it took a skilled craftsman and time. No two were alike, and they tended to be individually stamped with a number so you could unscrew/rescrew things when you took something apart. Someone in 1810 wouldn't want to buy cheap screws, the way forward would be able to own a lathe, planer, and make your own screws, and other hardware. Similarly, my strategy right now is to try to find stuff I can use on my own computer, not something that Google can kill on a whim. I've played with Stable-diffusion-ui, and found that for me, the main use would be to transform a rough (VERY rough) sketch of something into well illustrated picture. I'll start playing with ChatGPT and the like when I can run them on my own hardware.
- mkaic 4y ago
  I agree. We're just barely uncovering the tip of the iceberg right now. Everything we've seen up til now has been a proof-of-concept. The true scope of this field has yet to be realized.
- marginalia_nu 4y ago
  Since AI isn't meaningfully involved in designing new AI yet (unsure if it will be), I'm not convinced we're on an S-curve let alone an exponential curve. It seems closer to this: https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/ I'll concede there have been large breakthroughs, but to extrapolate from that there will be even larger breakthroughs (without a really solid account of why that would be) seems very sketchy. I get that the people who are trying to sell the idea to investors are pitching this line, but applying a modicum of critical thinking, that's relatively rarely how things work. Returns tend to diminish with the amount of effort put in, not exponentially increase.
- ubj 4y ago
  It's difficult to say. We're certainly making impressive advances now, but this is not the first time that AI has had a period of rapid improvement. The first and second AI winters were both preceded by periods of intense optimism [1]. I personally believe in the long-term vision of AI/ML/RL. Progress will continue to be made in the long run. However, we don't know what we don't know. We may hit a wall in a few years that takes decades to overcome. On the other hand, perhaps the current rate of innovation will continue for the forseeable future. Time will tell. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter
IronWolve 4y ago
Been loving ChatGPT, learning how to bypass its rules, you need to think about the data. It has all the data, but rules on how you ask for it will deny you. ChatGPT can dissect text and give tone scores and re-write with just the facts, but it will still sometimes reference excuses for its built in rules. Its rules ban it from making judgements, but if you drop to word and sentence analysis, it will do the work. Don't use names, such as countries or people or group. Same goes for data, it has the data, but wont give it to you if it too political (more rules). So you can work around them by asking non political questions, as just give me top 5 and bottom 5 of x data. Linux scripts are hit or miss, but if you ask it for snippets, it works reasonably well. But even when asked to do something in python or go it would tend to use "wrappers" for linux commands as a default. So many uses, but all its doing so far it training ME how to use it to get what I want by working around its rules.
LeroyRaz 4y ago
I think almost everyone is massively underestimating the near future capabilities of AI and their likely impact
1970-01-01 4y ago
Other than your existential crisis, how well are your Gmail backups actually working now, Mr. Scott?
aperrien 4y ago
Does anyone out there have a link to the section of British intellectual property law that Tom refers to as "Passing On"? I can't find anything clear with a google search.
- Kim_Bruning 4y ago
  My first hit... should be enough of a starting point to search further. http://uklegal.ie/passing-off/ http://uklegal.ie/passing-off/
doomleika 4y ago
While I share the sentiment for OP but at the same time I am feeling the excitment for what it will bring us next. I guess after 2-3 years of "Web3"(when it isn't)/Metaverse. The feeling of some tech that really changed the world have finally manifest itself and I am lucky to witness them.

53 points by Stevvo 4y ago

So what? So will a Ouija board!

I would guess a lot of things scare this guy. He's a clickbait youtuber who does simple stuff and tries to make it sound profound.

sieabahlpark 4y ago
[dead]
sockaddr 4y ago
That's the impression I get from his videos as well.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
royjacobs 4y ago
That's a pretty reductive (and needlessly negative) characterisation of a YouTuber who does a great job of finding pretty random science tidbits all around the globe and making short, to-the-point videos about them.
JCharante 4y ago
I mean, this conversation that is talked about in the video is pretty interesting https://www.tomscott.com/fix-gmail-labels-threads/conversation-record/ https://www.tomscott.com/fix-gmail-labels-threads/conversati...
- spookthesunset 4y ago
  that is pretty crazy, actually

scotuswroteus 4y ago

This is becoming a genre (of fiction)

Zetobal 4y ago
The funniest part about it is that the great 60s sci-fi writers do a better job explaining the consequences than all the view and click hustlers today.

unraveller 4y ago

Gatekeepers are right to be scared. Information wants to be free, it doesn't want to be traded for a story and a pat on the back.

mkaic 4y ago
Genuine question: Are you characterizing Tom Scott as a gatekeeper here, or am I misinterpreting your comment? I am not sure what your intention is here and would appreciate clarification.
doomleika 4y ago
Some of the gatekeeper might be out. Now OpenAI(or whoever controls it down the line) have the complete monopoly. Not that I am denying the future(Nasper in the 00s proved that). I am wondering what's the next best course as an individual.

mkaic 4y ago

I am an AI researcher, and I wholeheartedly agree with Tom here. I love AI, I love designing and training models and seeing all the amazing things they can do. But I would be lying if I said I wasn't scared. Like Tom, I have no idea where on the sigmoid curve we are, but I personally believe we're very near the beginning. I thought that becoming a practitioner in this field would make me less susceptible to making big, sweeping claims about it, but I've found the opposite to be true—the more I learn, the more I am convinced that AI will change everything in a manner at least as radical as the internet, if not more. In my opinion, society is completely unprepared for this change and for the new ethical dilemmas, challenges, tools, discoveries, and advancements it will enable. ChatGPT is a proof-of-concept. There are agents far, far more capable than it on their way, and it is impossible to know for sure how they will impact the world at large. We are observing science fiction become science fact and it is really unnerving at times. Tom is a smart and thoughtful guy, and I think he's right on the money with this video.

guluarte 4y ago
There's nothing intelligent in ChatGPT, it's just a text generator on steroids, web spammers have been using this sort of tools for years. It cannot generate new ideas, at the end it just regurgitates content
- mkaic 4y ago
  > It cannot generate new ideas. I don't find very much substance in this argument, given how impossible it is to consistently define "new" and "idea" in this context. At the end of the day, ChatGPT demonstrates that AI models are making real progress towards convincing mimicry of human behavior. How it does it is of no concern to me, what is concerning is the fact that it does it at all.
  - guluarte 4y ago
    it doesn't generate new ideas, it just answers based on statistics, it will be more like a personal search assitant or a tool that helps people finding information

bsaul 4y ago

Not an AI researcher, but share the feeling. This looks like industrialisation, except the things we’re going to automate the production of is what i was 100% sure was human’s core specificity : creative process under any form, and low-impact information production. Yet we’re living in the information age. Meaning, at least in the west, the majority of economical activities is going to be impacted and not in a pretty way.

mikewarot 4y ago

So, fellow HN users... where are we on the S curve? I think we're right before the hockey stick, just like the days of Napster. To use another analogy - The Industrial Revolution didn't make it possible to make screws, it made it possible to make a box of screws that you could sell for a dollar. Previously it took a skilled craftsman and time. No two were alike, and they tended to be individually stamped with a number so you could unscrew/rescrew things when you took something apart. Someone in 1810 wouldn't want to buy cheap screws, the way forward would be able to own a lathe, planer, and make your own screws, and other hardware. Similarly, my strategy right now is to try to find stuff I can use on my own computer, not something that Google can kill on a whim. I've played with Stable-diffusion-ui, and found that for me, the main use would be to transform a rough (VERY rough) sketch of something into well illustrated picture. I'll start playing with ChatGPT and the like when I can run them on my own hardware.

mkaic 4y ago
I agree. We're just barely uncovering the tip of the iceberg right now. Everything we've seen up til now has been a proof-of-concept. The true scope of this field has yet to be realized.
marginalia_nu 4y ago
Since AI isn't meaningfully involved in designing new AI yet (unsure if it will be), I'm not convinced we're on an S-curve let alone an exponential curve. It seems closer to this: https://xkcd.com/605/ https://xkcd.com/605/ I'll concede there have been large breakthroughs, but to extrapolate from that there will be even larger breakthroughs (without a really solid account of why that would be) seems very sketchy. I get that the people who are trying to sell the idea to investors are pitching this line, but applying a modicum of critical thinking, that's relatively rarely how things work. Returns tend to diminish with the amount of effort put in, not exponentially increase.
ubj 4y ago
It's difficult to say. We're certainly making impressive advances now, but this is not the first time that AI has had a period of rapid improvement. The first and second AI winters were both preceded by periods of intense optimism [1]. I personally believe in the long-term vision of AI/ML/RL. Progress will continue to be made in the long run. However, we don't know what we don't know. We may hit a wall in a few years that takes decades to overcome. On the other hand, perhaps the current rate of innovation will continue for the forseeable future. Time will tell. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter

IronWolve 4y ago

Been loving ChatGPT, learning how to bypass its rules, you need to think about the data. It has all the data, but rules on how you ask for it will deny you. ChatGPT can dissect text and give tone scores and re-write with just the facts, but it will still sometimes reference excuses for its built in rules. Its rules ban it from making judgements, but if you drop to word and sentence analysis, it will do the work. Don't use names, such as countries or people or group. Same goes for data, it has the data, but wont give it to you if it too political (more rules). So you can work around them by asking non political questions, as just give me top 5 and bottom 5 of x data. Linux scripts are hit or miss, but if you ask it for snippets, it works reasonably well. But even when asked to do something in python or go it would tend to use "wrappers" for linux commands as a default. So many uses, but all its doing so far it training ME how to use it to get what I want by working around its rules.

LeroyRaz 4y ago

I think almost everyone is massively underestimating the near future capabilities of AI and their likely impact

1970-01-01 4y ago

Other than your existential crisis, how well are your Gmail backups actually working now, Mr. Scott?

aperrien 4y ago

Does anyone out there have a link to the section of British intellectual property law that Tom refers to as "Passing On"? I can't find anything clear with a google search.

Kim_Bruning 4y ago
My first hit... should be enough of a starting point to search further. http://uklegal.ie/passing-off/ http://uklegal.ie/passing-off/

doomleika 4y ago

While I share the sentiment for OP but at the same time I am feeling the excitment for what it will bring us next. I guess after 2-3 years of "Web3"(when it isn't)/Metaverse. The feeling of some tech that really changed the world have finally manifest itself and I am lucky to witness them.