3 ms·

Starlink is in a completely different class of "tons of satellites" as other platforms simply due to the SpaceX launch vehicles. China has a total of 600-ish s

Starlink is in a completely different class of "tons of satellites" as other platforms simply due to the SpaceX launch vehicles. China has a total of 600-ish satellites together for all purposes. Starlink has 3500-ish right now, and the already licensed plans are for 12000 by 2026. When(if!) Starship starts launching satellites, a single launch can put in orbit more military satellites than China has ever launched, and it does not seem have a comparable capability in the near future.

dismalpedigree 4y ago
I predict a Chinese version of Starship within 18 months of a successful launch. The Chinese industrial espionage machine is unmatched.
- golol 4y ago
  You underestimate how incredibly difficult the work that SpaceX is doing is. No spaceflight oraganization in the world is close to having the capabilities that SpaceX has right now (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy). Meanwhile Starship is almost ready.
  - porbelm 4y ago
    That's why you do industrial espionage though; take advantage of all the R&D done by someone else, so most of the pitfalls are overcome and a lot of the testing is done. Like knowing what kinds of alloys turned out not to work and why, etc. So you don't have to repeat all that.
    - georgeg23 4y ago
      Honestly this espionage thing is overrated. Plenty of employees in the US take their knowledge to (domestic) competitors and find it quite hard to just clone a business. The Russians and US were stealing each other's plans during the space race but this often led to misunderstood and suboptimal designs. See Buran https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Buran_(spacecraft) https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Buran_(spacecraft)
  - fooblaster 4y ago
    looking at the launch numbers from 2022 you can see that china is fairly close to having the capabilities of the us. Falcon heavy is still several years away from being useful in any capacity. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00048-7#:~:text=180%20rockets%20lifted%20off%20successfully%2C%20with%20SpaceX%20driving%20the%20pace.&text=2022%20was%20a%20record%20year%20for%20space%20with%20180%20successful,44%20more%20than%20in%202021 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00048-7#:~:text=1.....
    - golol 4y ago
      SpaceX is launching more than twoce the payload to orbit than the rest of the world combined though... without starship. Also how is Falcon Heavy years away from being useful?

dismalpedigree 4y ago

I predict a Chinese version of Starship within 18 months of a successful launch. The Chinese industrial espionage machine is unmatched.

golol 4y ago
You underestimate how incredibly difficult the work that SpaceX is doing is. No spaceflight oraganization in the world is close to having the capabilities that SpaceX has right now (Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy). Meanwhile Starship is almost ready.
- porbelm 4y ago
  That's why you do industrial espionage though; take advantage of all the R&D done by someone else, so most of the pitfalls are overcome and a lot of the testing is done. Like knowing what kinds of alloys turned out not to work and why, etc. So you don't have to repeat all that.
  - georgeg23 4y ago
    Honestly this espionage thing is overrated. Plenty of employees in the US take their knowledge to (domestic) competitors and find it quite hard to just clone a business. The Russians and US were stealing each other's plans during the space race but this often led to misunderstood and suboptimal designs. See Buran https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Buran_(spacecraft) https://wikipedia.org/wiki/Buran_(spacecraft)
- fooblaster 4y ago
  looking at the launch numbers from 2022 you can see that china is fairly close to having the capabilities of the us. Falcon heavy is still several years away from being useful in any capacity. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00048-7#:~:text=180%20rockets%20lifted%20off%20successfully%2C%20with%20SpaceX%20driving%20the%20pace.&text=2022%20was%20a%20record%20year%20for%20space%20with%20180%20successful,44%20more%20than%20in%202021 https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00048-7#:~:text=1.....
  - golol 4y ago
    SpaceX is launching more than twoce the payload to orbit than the rest of the world combined though... without starship. Also how is Falcon Heavy years away from being useful?