44 ms·

Is there an uptick in aviation-related near-incidents lately? Difficult to tell if it’s real, coincidence, or just HN has developed an interest lately.

by mwint 4y ago

zmk5 4y ago
I've been wondering the same thing. Could it be the FAA really dropping the ball or the airlines are struggling to manage?
- makestuff 4y ago
  My theory is pilots and maintenance crews are stretched way too thin after the pandemic layoffs and subsequent post covid boom. Therefore, more mistakes are happening.
  - kaitai 4y ago
    I have no data to confirm, but as a relative of a pilot, they are reporting taking a lot of "green slips" (uncovered flights) and experiencing some pressure to come in while fatigued, which they are resisting successfully as they have enough seniority and $ to not make it worth it.
    - ummonk 4y ago
      Wonder whether a corollary of that would be that more inexperienced pilots are succumbing to the pressure and coming in while fatigued.
    - pixl97 4y ago
      Juan Brown of the blancoliro channel on youtube had been talking about this near the beginning of the pandemic. The flying industry came in and asked for a large number of long time pilots to early retire at the start of the pandemic, and I believe a large number did. Then somewhat quickly demand bounced back causing a pilot shortage, leading to the industry putting out a call for new pilots.
- toomuchtodo 4y ago
  https://simpleflying.com/southwest-airlines-lowers-minimum-hour-requirement-hours/ https://simpleflying.com/southwest-airlines-lowers-minimum-h... > Effective February 7th, aspiring Southwest pilots will need at least 500 flying hours on jets or turboprop aircraft, down from the 1,000 the airline currently requires. The Dallas-based budget airline communicated the change in an internal memo addressed to pilots and later explained that the rationale behind this decision is the willingness to increase opportunities for an airline pilot career to more skilled pilots. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-there-a-pilot-shortage-covid-retirements-training/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-there-a-pilot-shortage-c... > And the military itself doesn't have enough pilots — a Department of Defense report from 2019 says the Air Force has seen shortfalls since 2006, and the service said it was short more than 1,500 pilots at the end of 2016 — "with the deficit expected to grow." By the end of the 2019 fiscal year, it had — to a deficit of 2,100 pilots, according to written testimony submitted to Congress in 2020. > The military has also struggled for years to meet its own goals for training new pilots. TLDR There is a pilot shortage. Lots of pilots retired or took buyouts during COVID when air traffic plummeted, and the pipeline is insufficient to meet the demand ramp. Additional citations: https://doav.virginia.gov/calendar-and-news/news/2020-june/southwest-offers-buyouts-to-pilots/ https://doav.virginia.gov/calendar-and-news/news/2020-june/s... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/15/us-pilot-shortage-forces-airlines-to-cut-flights-scramble-for-solutions.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/15/us-pilot-shortage-forces-air...
  - polishdude20 4y ago
    I'm not surprised. Getting a pilots license is an expensive endeavor. Then it's lots of years flying in backwoods places for low pay.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
rafale 4y ago
Something very similar happened to a Qatar Airways flight a few days ago, coming as low as 800 feet from the ocean. Scary stuff.
- safeimp 4y ago
  First time seeing this one. Indeed, quite scary: > FlightRadar24 tracking data shows that, after taking off at 2am, the Qatar Boeing 787 started losing altitude only a minute later, when the plane was at 1,850ft. > The aircraft then suddenly dropped 1,000ft in 24 seconds. https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/qatar-plummet-terrifying-descent-passenger-b2279625.html https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/qatar-p...
  - dilap 4y ago
    That's wild, per the article the first officer was flying and simply got disoriented. Aircraft was recovered by the captain. That's the sort of thing you would expect to happen to a newly-minted private pilot in a cesna, not a commercial pilot in a fully-loaded 787!
    - turrican 4y ago
      My own airline had an incident recently where one of our senior captains became so disoriented taking off at night over water that he thought every flight instrument onboard had become unreliable (VERY unlikely). He dove toward the ground but fortunately managed to land before a disaster occurred. His First Officer stated that she knew the problem wasn’t the flight instruments, but didn’t correct the captain adequately. You’re right, these experienced pilots should know better, but incidents do happen.
      - JumpinJack_Cash 4y ago
        What is inconceivable, even for layperson, is that when in doubt you should always gain altitude, not lose altitude.
blamazon 4y ago
I'm not a domain expert but a perusal of https://avherald.com/ https://avherald.com/ might indicate if there is an uptick or not.
- doctor_eval 4y ago
  I think Simon is rate limited, and posts as much as he can from a much larger sample size. So probably not useful in terms of identifying frequency trends.

Is there an uptick in aviation-related near-incidents lately? Difficult to tell if it’s real, coincidence, or just HN has developed an interest lately.

by mwint 4y ago

Is there an uptick in aviation-related near-incidents lately? Difficult to tell if it’s real, coincidence, or just HN has developed an interest lately.

zmk5 4y ago

I've been wondering the same thing. Could it be the FAA really dropping the ball or the airlines are struggling to manage?

makestuff 4y ago
My theory is pilots and maintenance crews are stretched way too thin after the pandemic layoffs and subsequent post covid boom. Therefore, more mistakes are happening.
- kaitai 4y ago
  I have no data to confirm, but as a relative of a pilot, they are reporting taking a lot of "green slips" (uncovered flights) and experiencing some pressure to come in while fatigued, which they are resisting successfully as they have enough seniority and $ to not make it worth it.
  - ummonk 4y ago
    Wonder whether a corollary of that would be that more inexperienced pilots are succumbing to the pressure and coming in while fatigued.
  - pixl97 4y ago
    Juan Brown of the blancoliro channel on youtube had been talking about this near the beginning of the pandemic. The flying industry came in and asked for a large number of long time pilots to early retire at the start of the pandemic, and I believe a large number did. Then somewhat quickly demand bounced back causing a pilot shortage, leading to the industry putting out a call for new pilots.
toomuchtodo 4y ago
https://simpleflying.com/southwest-airlines-lowers-minimum-hour-requirement-hours/ https://simpleflying.com/southwest-airlines-lowers-minimum-h... > Effective February 7th, aspiring Southwest pilots will need at least 500 flying hours on jets or turboprop aircraft, down from the 1,000 the airline currently requires. The Dallas-based budget airline communicated the change in an internal memo addressed to pilots and later explained that the rationale behind this decision is the willingness to increase opportunities for an airline pilot career to more skilled pilots. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-there-a-pilot-shortage-covid-retirements-training/ https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-there-a-pilot-shortage-c... > And the military itself doesn't have enough pilots — a Department of Defense report from 2019 says the Air Force has seen shortfalls since 2006, and the service said it was short more than 1,500 pilots at the end of 2016 — "with the deficit expected to grow." By the end of the 2019 fiscal year, it had — to a deficit of 2,100 pilots, according to written testimony submitted to Congress in 2020. > The military has also struggled for years to meet its own goals for training new pilots. TLDR There is a pilot shortage. Lots of pilots retired or took buyouts during COVID when air traffic plummeted, and the pipeline is insufficient to meet the demand ramp. Additional citations: https://doav.virginia.gov/calendar-and-news/news/2020-june/southwest-offers-buyouts-to-pilots/ https://doav.virginia.gov/calendar-and-news/news/2020-june/s... https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/15/us-pilot-shortage-forces-airlines-to-cut-flights-scramble-for-solutions.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/15/us-pilot-shortage-forces-air...
- polishdude20 4y ago
  I'm not surprised. Getting a pilots license is an expensive endeavor. Then it's lots of years flying in backwoods places for low pay.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]

rafale 4y ago

Something very similar happened to a Qatar Airways flight a few days ago, coming as low as 800 feet from the ocean. Scary stuff.

safeimp 4y ago
First time seeing this one. Indeed, quite scary: > FlightRadar24 tracking data shows that, after taking off at 2am, the Qatar Boeing 787 started losing altitude only a minute later, when the plane was at 1,850ft. > The aircraft then suddenly dropped 1,000ft in 24 seconds. https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/qatar-plummet-terrifying-descent-passenger-b2279625.html https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/qatar-p...
- dilap 4y ago
  That's wild, per the article the first officer was flying and simply got disoriented. Aircraft was recovered by the captain. That's the sort of thing you would expect to happen to a newly-minted private pilot in a cesna, not a commercial pilot in a fully-loaded 787!
  - turrican 4y ago
    My own airline had an incident recently where one of our senior captains became so disoriented taking off at night over water that he thought every flight instrument onboard had become unreliable (VERY unlikely). He dove toward the ground but fortunately managed to land before a disaster occurred. His First Officer stated that she knew the problem wasn’t the flight instruments, but didn’t correct the captain adequately. You’re right, these experienced pilots should know better, but incidents do happen.
    - JumpinJack_Cash 4y ago
      What is inconceivable, even for layperson, is that when in doubt you should always gain altitude, not lose altitude.

blamazon 4y ago

I'm not a domain expert but a perusal of https://avherald.com/ https://avherald.com/ might indicate if there is an uptick or not.

doctor_eval 4y ago
I think Simon is rate limited, and posts as much as he can from a much larger sample size. So probably not useful in terms of identifying frequency trends.