As the resolver for a Manifold prediction market, I've been following this story closely for the last couple months. [0] Back in December, HN user JanSolo wond

As the resolver for a Manifold prediction market, I've been following this story closely for the last couple months. [0] Back in December, HN user JanSolo wondered if the three astronauts assigned to the leaking Soyuz MS-22 might be evacuated via the Dragon Capsule. [1] Since the default evacuation plan was to send the next Soyuz MS-23 up early and unmanned, Dragon seemed unlikely...unless, of course, the coolant leak was due to a design or manufacturing defect affecting other Roscocosmos craft. This latest Progress MS-21 news makes the defect hypothesis much more likely, in my view. A joint NASA-Roscocosmos investigation found that the original MS-22 coolant leak was caused by a micrometeroid about 1mm in diameter. I don't expect them to walk that back, so perhaps the defect makes these coolant lines more susceptible to puncture than before? [0] https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-three-iss-astronauts-assig https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-three-iss-astrona... [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33995082 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33995082