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There were plenty of times to raise rates even before the Trump administration. But there were no major negative impacts until the COVID19 pandemic. The point
by juve1996 4y ago
There were plenty of times to raise rates even before the Trump administration. But there were no major negative impacts until the COVID19 pandemic.
The point is it's easy for us to say this now. Had the pandemic not occurred we'd maybe still be in the position we were in 2019. You can argue for resiliency but you can't time the market. You could argue rates should've been raised in 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19. If you optimize too much for resiliency, then you overcorrect and cause recessions, which no one wants. And there'd be people just like you parroting how "i told you they shouldn't have raised rates!"
Now let's look at the facts. Despite sharp rate increases, the economy still grew last quarter, inflation has is normalizing, and the job market outside of tech is still robust. Frankly, hard to think of a better outcome. The asset inflation prior to COVID19 was slightly problematic. But the inflation we face now has less to do with that and more to do with demographic shifts and larger societal changes that needed a spark to begin.
- twblalock 4y agoInflation "normalizing" is actually likely to be due to a change in the way it is measured: https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1624093631929020416 https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1624093631929020416