4 ms·

A net health risk in a population. If we plot alcohol consumption in a population where x is alcohol consumed and y is health outcomes, and start from a value o

by fsloth 4y ago

A net health risk in a population. If we plot alcohol consumption in a population where x is alcohol consumed and y is health outcomes, and start from a value of ”y=1” at ”x=0” consumption, the curve will have a negative derivative everywhere. Alcohol may be fun, and moderate drinkers may reach old age, but statistically speaking it’s not a) necessary or b) healthy. Claims otherwise are delutional (unless one has some really unique response to alcohol consumption). Alcohol is fun in moderate amounts just like cake but neither are good for you. This does not mean one should not drink or eat cake - just don’t delude yourself I don’t know how to write the following compassionately so I’m going to just write it - my intention is not to insult. I’m not sure why you are equating drug use with physiological necessities but if you feel you need to be defensive of your or someone elses drinking habits that’s a red flag for alcoholism. Usually alcoholics - typical of addiction- get pretty defensive of their habit. ”This is good for me”, ”I know what I’m doing”, ”This is nobodys business but my own”. So if one is drinking - well, even moderately by their standards thoughts like these should give a pause and instigate a moment of self reflection.

peoplefromibiza 4y ago
> If we plot alcohol consumption in a population where x is alcohol consumed and y is health outcomes, and start from a value of ”y=1” at ”x=0” consumption, the curve will have a negative derivative everywhere. Again. NO! Such plot does not exists, or you would show it to us. A very recent Lancet study show that up to 2 standard units of alcohol a day, there's no measurable difference with non drinking people. Two standard units is more than a pint of beer. And above that, the difference is barely noticeable until some serious quantity of alcohol (4 units and above a day) Do you have some more reliable data than Lancet by any chance? > but statistically speaking it’s not a) necessary or b) healthy statistically speaking you don't need hotdogs or coffee and they are not exactly healthy. Am I right? statistically speaking you don't need opioids and yet deaths involving opioids increased from an estimated 70,029 in 2020 to 80,816 in 2021 and it's even worse an average of 44 people died each day from overdoses involving prescription opioids, totaling more than 16,000 deaths so there's also that. Maybe in US you have a moderation problem. Maybe is a social problem, not an health issue. > I’m not sure why you are equating drug use with physiological necessities but if you feel you need to be defensive of your or someone elses drinking habits that’s a red flag for alcoholism. because the benefits are higher than the risks associated with them. Biking is associated with a number of benefits, but biking is also very dangerous. there is no amount of biking that can be considered risk free! So, please, stop being Malachia from "The name of the rose" > Usually alcoholics - typical of addiction- get pretty defensive of their habit This is getting pathetic. My family makes their own wine, from our own grapes, for family consumption, we've been doing it for centuries. We love doing it together and then consume it together, as a family. It makes our collective life better. My grandparents, gran-grand parents and grand-grand-grand parents died on average after 90. I would argue that usually the more pedantic anti-something are former addicts. My dad was a heavy smoker, he is the most annoying anti-smoke person in the World. You sound exactly like one of those "sober" people. I'm a the only one sensing something here?
- fsloth 4y ago
  Sorry, I was not being anti-winery, just pro-statistics. Yes, this is the study: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)30134-X/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... For individuals the stats are as you referred. This is different thing than consumption in a population - if you increase the consumption in population only slightly it means some people will increase their consumption more and some less - and for those who increase their consumption more the mortality effects likely get worse. However, as an additional data point, Canada updated just their recommendation of safe levels to two drinks per week or less https://ccsa.ca/canadas-guidance-alcohol-and-health https://ccsa.ca/canadas-guidance-alcohol-and-health. If we observe the statistics of global alcohol deaths by country, there is a ridiculously high variance of death from alcohol https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/alcohol/by-country/ https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/alcohol/b... If you are from one of the low-drink-mortality countries then statistically I'm pretty sure alcohol in your reference population is far less mortality inducing than for example in my reference population (Finland) and I guess if the lancet type stats were collected from each country the number of "safe drinks per week" as a function of excess mortality would be quite different. I guess your family is quite good at handling their drinking, but globally alcohol is quite lethal - according to WHO 3 million deaths per year (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol). This is in same range as reported covid deaths in 2020 (3M) https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covi.... So alcohol roughly kills as many people per year as a global pandemic that just locked down half of the world for two years. But as we perceived from the above mortality-per-country chart, this is not evenly distributed by a long shot. My intention was not to moralize, just to be clear headed about the stats. But the stats for an individual are quite different depending where you drink, I guess. I've never met anyone so passionate about drinking who was not addicted to it. It's fun to realize a person can be passionate about it as a cultural and family tradition as well. Yes, I've met many an alcoholic, sadly. High mortality alcohol death country. In my reference population alcohol is quite lethal. That does not stop me from enjoying my drink now and then but I'm pretty coolheaded about the stats. I realize you zeal came from a family tradition and this was a huge cultural misunderstanding - I wish well to your tradition and hope a plentiful next harvest :)

by fsloth 4y ago

peoplefromibiza 4y ago

> If we plot alcohol consumption in a population where x is alcohol consumed and y is health outcomes, and start from a value of ”y=1” at ”x=0” consumption, the curve will have a negative derivative everywhere. Again. NO! Such plot does not exists, or you would show it to us. A very recent Lancet study show that up to 2 standard units of alcohol a day, there's no measurable difference with non drinking people. Two standard units is more than a pint of beer. And above that, the difference is barely noticeable until some serious quantity of alcohol (4 units and above a day) Do you have some more reliable data than Lancet by any chance? > but statistically speaking it’s not a) necessary or b) healthy statistically speaking you don't need hotdogs or coffee and they are not exactly healthy. Am I right? statistically speaking you don't need opioids and yet deaths involving opioids increased from an estimated 70,029 in 2020 to 80,816 in 2021 and it's even worse an average of 44 people died each day from overdoses involving prescription opioids, totaling more than 16,000 deaths so there's also that. Maybe in US you have a moderation problem. Maybe is a social problem, not an health issue. > I’m not sure why you are equating drug use with physiological necessities but if you feel you need to be defensive of your or someone elses drinking habits that’s a red flag for alcoholism. because the benefits are higher than the risks associated with them. Biking is associated with a number of benefits, but biking is also very dangerous. there is no amount of biking that can be considered risk free! So, please, stop being Malachia from "The name of the rose" > Usually alcoholics - typical of addiction- get pretty defensive of their habit This is getting pathetic. My family makes their own wine, from our own grapes, for family consumption, we've been doing it for centuries. We love doing it together and then consume it together, as a family. It makes our collective life better. My grandparents, gran-grand parents and grand-grand-grand parents died on average after 90. I would argue that usually the more pedantic anti-something are former addicts. My dad was a heavy smoker, he is the most annoying anti-smoke person in the World. You sound exactly like one of those "sober" people. I'm a the only one sensing something here?

fsloth 4y ago
Sorry, I was not being anti-winery, just pro-statistics. Yes, this is the study: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)30134-X/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... For individuals the stats are as you referred. This is different thing than consumption in a population - if you increase the consumption in population only slightly it means some people will increase their consumption more and some less - and for those who increase their consumption more the mortality effects likely get worse. However, as an additional data point, Canada updated just their recommendation of safe levels to two drinks per week or less https://ccsa.ca/canadas-guidance-alcohol-and-health https://ccsa.ca/canadas-guidance-alcohol-and-health. If we observe the statistics of global alcohol deaths by country, there is a ridiculously high variance of death from alcohol https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/alcohol/by-country/ https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/cause-of-death/alcohol/b... If you are from one of the low-drink-mortality countries then statistically I'm pretty sure alcohol in your reference population is far less mortality inducing than for example in my reference population (Finland) and I guess if the lancet type stats were collected from each country the number of "safe drinks per week" as a function of excess mortality would be quite different. I guess your family is quite good at handling their drinking, but globally alcohol is quite lethal - according to WHO 3 million deaths per year (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/alcohol). This is in same range as reported covid deaths in 2020 (3M) https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covid-19-estimating-global-excess-mortality https://www.who.int/data/stories/the-true-death-toll-of-covi.... So alcohol roughly kills as many people per year as a global pandemic that just locked down half of the world for two years. But as we perceived from the above mortality-per-country chart, this is not evenly distributed by a long shot. My intention was not to moralize, just to be clear headed about the stats. But the stats for an individual are quite different depending where you drink, I guess. I've never met anyone so passionate about drinking who was not addicted to it. It's fun to realize a person can be passionate about it as a cultural and family tradition as well. Yes, I've met many an alcoholic, sadly. High mortality alcohol death country. In my reference population alcohol is quite lethal. That does not stop me from enjoying my drink now and then but I'm pretty coolheaded about the stats. I realize you zeal came from a family tradition and this was a huge cultural misunderstanding - I wish well to your tradition and hope a plentiful next harvest :)