3 ms·
Show HN: Experimenting with GPT-3: Building an Investment Analyst
We have been experimenting with using GPT3's reasoning capabilities to build an investment analyst that does this :
(1) Summarize relevant news of the last 30 days,
(2) Write a SWOT analysis,
(3) Identify competitors,
(4) Identify Key Risks, and
(5) Write three investment theses (bull, neutral, bear)
Here is an example how this can look like:
https://app.finclout.io/tp/MSFT
https://app.finclout.io/tp/LYFT
https://app.finclout.io/tp/AAPL
https://app.finclout.io/tp/UBER
So far, the results of getting reliable data back through well-engineered prompts through the API is quite promising. Yet, from an operational perspective, the biggest problem is that even though we are not using the free service but pay for it frequently run into rate limits.
Positives:
For Apple, the News Summary provided a useful result.
"Apple Inc. is launching Apple Pay Later soon to revolutionize the buy now, pay later (BNPL) industry. Its stock is currently indicating a potential move to $167. The company is also facing an investigation by the Pomerantz Law Firm on behalf of iPhone 7 owners who experienced performance degradation following a device update. Apple's latest iPhones are being sold at discounts in China and the company is expected to rollout a high-end iPhone 'Ultra' in 2024. Additionally, two top market watchers discussed tech's wild run this year."
For Microsoft, the Bull-case made more sense than the Bear-case
Bull-case
"Microsoft Corporation is a technology leader in the industry and is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for cloud computing and artificial intelligence. The company's strong balance sheet, competitive advantages, and focus on innovation make it an attractive long-term investment
Bear-case
"Microsoft Corporation is a large, mature company with limited growth potential. The company is facing increasing competition from smaller, more nimble competitors and is struggling to keep up with the rapid pace of technological change. Investors should b e wary of investing in Microsoft due to its lack of innovation and potential for declining market share."
Negatives:
GPT3 is only guessing the next best word. Which might sometimes provide strange results. For example, considering the News Summary for Uber
"Uber Technologies, Inc. reported a surge in fourth-quarter revenues and a strong outlook for 2021."
We are not in 2021 anymore for a long while.
Clearly, GPT3's knowledge of the Yahoo finance dataset has been cut off in 2021 and applied the provided news effectively.
For AAPL, GPT3 did not identify any competitors.
While we could argue that HP, MSFT, or similar hardware+software companies are in fact, competitors.
In conclusion, we need to further investigate if the actual reasoning of GPT3 is mature enough to provide a useful analysis of the stock. Especially under liability considerations.
Yet, if it works it could be a really powerful game-changer.
Clearly, that is only an experiment and shouldn't be used as an investment recommendation nor seen as investment advice in any way.
- chrisgd 4y agoI have been thinking about this as well. Something that helps you create market maps and identifies private acquisition targets would be part of software you could sell to investment banks. I think the summary part for LYFT is really good. Identifying the drop in price and giving a reason why is beneficial.
- jsemrau 4y agoInteresting. How would you think finviz maps can be improved? https://finviz.com/map.ashx https://finviz.com/map.ashx
- chrisgd 4y agoI am referring to these types of market maps where you classify different companies into a better description of what they do https://pitchbook.com/products/desktop/discovery/market-maps-tool https://pitchbook.com/products/desktop/discovery/market-maps... United Healthcare and Merck are both considered healthcare companies, but very different. I would think some kind of classification algorithm could learn from doing it and then getting feedback but not sure how I would do that.
- jsemrau 4y agoMany many thanks!
- jsemrau 4y agoStarted working on it. https://app.finclout.io/themes https://app.finclout.io/themes We already have custom aggregated themes based on what companies do on the platform. Needs more visual updates and some data quality checking. Thank you for the inspiration!
- chrisgd 4y agoThat’s awesome.
- 4y ago