2 ms·

my speculation is that the main goal of Chinese covid lockdown was to train and simulate mass policing of population in case of upcoming war.

mikewarot 4y ago
My understanding is their vaccine doesn't work at all, they don't have a strong emergency medical care system, thus it was the only real option for them.
- riku_iki 4y ago
  they could buy western vaccine
  - pixl97 4y ago
    And admit weakness?, autocracy doesn't like doing that much.
    - riku_iki 4y ago
      They not necessary need to tell population it is foreign vaccine. But maybe they were trying to solve the problem of aging population that way.
dfadsadsf 4y ago
Why would you need to police population in case of war for returning Taiwan? It will be very popular war and you definitely won't need to lock people down.
- riku_iki 4y ago
  there will be consequences from these war for population.
- nostromo 4y ago
  Look at Russia as an example. The war has been longer and less popular than expected and economic sanctions have hurt the working class the most. China imports 66%-75% of its oil. That would drop dramatically in a hot war, as oil imports via the South China Sea would likely be blocked. This would require any imports to sail around Australia, which would likely be stopped by the US. Russia would happily sell China oil, but it doesn't produce nearly enough to cover the gap. No oil, no military. No oil, no economy.
  - dfadsadsf 4y ago
    If anything, war is much more popular in Russia than expected. There are no widespread protests, draft went ok, etc. Putin is still popular. I do not think oil is such a big problem. China import is 10mln barrels while Russia exports is 5mln barrels, Kazakhstan is 1.2mln barrels. I am sure they can transport Iranian oil if needed. What will also happen is that Russia will buy oil on international market to resell to China. There is no infrastructure now to transport that much oil but it can be built surprisingly fast. Germany just demonstrated that it's possible to built LNG terminal in six months. If you ignore property rights and all enviromental regulation and enlist military you can built trans-asia pipeline in a few months. China can also import oil thru Vietnam.
oceanplexian 4y ago
Like everything I think this is at least a half truth. COVID did happen but probably not intentionally. And then China (And a few other countries) saw it as a great excuse to try a few things out on the general population and see what they could get away with.
yamtaddle 4y ago
As with speculation about US Covid measures being some kind of training or testing for god-knows-what crazy thing, the political and economic costs of the measures are far too high for those to make any sense as major motivations.

mikewarot 4y ago

My understanding is their vaccine doesn't work at all, they don't have a strong emergency medical care system, thus it was the only real option for them.

riku_iki 4y ago
they could buy western vaccine
- pixl97 4y ago
  And admit weakness?, autocracy doesn't like doing that much.
  - riku_iki 4y ago
    They not necessary need to tell population it is foreign vaccine. But maybe they were trying to solve the problem of aging population that way.

dfadsadsf 4y ago

Why would you need to police population in case of war for returning Taiwan? It will be very popular war and you definitely won't need to lock people down.

riku_iki 4y ago
there will be consequences from these war for population.
nostromo 4y ago
Look at Russia as an example. The war has been longer and less popular than expected and economic sanctions have hurt the working class the most. China imports 66%-75% of its oil. That would drop dramatically in a hot war, as oil imports via the South China Sea would likely be blocked. This would require any imports to sail around Australia, which would likely be stopped by the US. Russia would happily sell China oil, but it doesn't produce nearly enough to cover the gap. No oil, no military. No oil, no economy.
- dfadsadsf 4y ago
  If anything, war is much more popular in Russia than expected. There are no widespread protests, draft went ok, etc. Putin is still popular. I do not think oil is such a big problem. China import is 10mln barrels while Russia exports is 5mln barrels, Kazakhstan is 1.2mln barrels. I am sure they can transport Iranian oil if needed. What will also happen is that Russia will buy oil on international market to resell to China. There is no infrastructure now to transport that much oil but it can be built surprisingly fast. Germany just demonstrated that it's possible to built LNG terminal in six months. If you ignore property rights and all enviromental regulation and enlist military you can built trans-asia pipeline in a few months. China can also import oil thru Vietnam.

oceanplexian 4y ago

Like everything I think this is at least a half truth. COVID did happen but probably not intentionally. And then China (And a few other countries) saw it as a great excuse to try a few things out on the general population and see what they could get away with.

yamtaddle 4y ago

As with speculation about US Covid measures being some kind of training or testing for god-knows-what crazy thing, the political and economic costs of the measures are far too high for those to make any sense as major motivations.