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>I almost doubled my (non-index) portfolio by making the most obvious plays ever (durr, airlines will probably go back up, casinos will probably go back up, cru
by elil17 4y ago
>I almost doubled my (non-index) portfolio by making the most obvious plays ever (durr, airlines will probably go back up, casinos will probably go back up, cruise lines will probably go back up).
I would argue that these were not the "most obvious plays ever." Airlines were making most of their money from business travel. It wasn't necessarily foreseeable that business travel would rebound somewhat and that increased leisure travel would make up the rest of the difference.
Additionally, you should really compare your performance to how a baseline investment would have performed over the same time period. VT almost doubled from the the start of the pandemic to the market's peak, so it is not really fair to say that you traded your way into doubling your portfolio.
- DontchaKnowit 4y agoThere were plenty of opportunities to lose money during that period. Doubling your money is fucjing fantastic no matter how you slice it. Let the guy have his win lmao
- elil17 4y agoThere was no opportunity to lose money if you diversified with an index fund or frankly even an actively managed fund. For every one of these guys their is another who lost money compared to the market. People should not push the narrative that you can make money from stock picking when it's just not true in any practical way.
- DontchaKnowit 4y agoyou're wrong about that
- madaxe_again 4y agoIn the market that we’ve had these past few years, it’s reasonable performance. Me, I just buy and hold on undervalued companies that make sausage machines rather than sausages, have been for a decade, and I’ve seen an overall gain of 38,000%. No leverage, as my strategy occasionally entails watching everything slowly decline 20% during from time to time — but I bought equities in businesses that I believed had legs at the time, and continue to do so for the same reason.
- duxup 4y agoAirlines are also weird in that at times they're more than willing to compete like crazy and eat brutal losses. And then suddenly not ...
- ghaff 4y agoI'm actually surprised by the degree to which business travel has bounced back--especially given that in the tech sector anyway, a lot of companies are scrutinizing travel expenses very carefully.