Physics. When combusting fuel you cannot get more heat energy out of them than the chemical bonds you are breaking contains, a gas furnace can never be more tha

Physics. When combusting fuel you cannot get more heat energy out of them than the chemical bonds you are breaking contains, a gas furnace can never be more than 100% efficient, the best commercially available ones are 95%, and a majority that are actually installed are closer to 80-90%. Heat pumps do not create heat, the refrigeration cycle moves heat from point A to point B. For every KWh of electricity used by your refrigerator, air conditioner, or heat pump, 3-4 KWh of heat energy can be moved where you want it to go. Even if you have a (comparatively) inefficient combined cycle natural gas power plant that is 50-60% efficient, you're still getting 150-200% efficiency for heating with a heat pump compared to 80-95% for a natural gas furnace. I live in Boise so we have pretty cheap utilities compared to the national average, but here's some math: 1 therm (~30KWh of energy) is ~$0.72 from Intermountain Gas, the furnace in my rental is 90% efficient, so I actually get 27KWh of heat from every therm I burn. Idaho power has a tiered tariff for residential customers, with a peak charge of ~$0.098 per KWh during the winter for usage over 2,000 KWh in a month. Every therm my gas furnace burns costs me as much as ~7.5KWh from the electric utility, but those 7.5KWh can provide me with 30KWh of heat with a quality heat pump, which would require a 100% efficient natural gas furnace to reach. Add in that gas furnaces have a much higher TCO because of maintenance and repair compared to a heat pump, and they're not just energy inefficient in comparison but even just plain more expensive to operate even with incredibly cheap fossil fuels.