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Has anyone done the math on when we will have too much housing? With the boomers dying off and the much smaller following generations, I presume at some point i

Has anyone done the math on when we will have too much housing? With the boomers dying off and the much smaller following generations, I presume at some point in the next 50-100 years we will have way more houses than people to fill them. Surely some statistician has done the math.

steveBK123 4y ago
In the US it's almost all immigration dependent now. So the answer could be anywhere from "1-2 generations" to "never", depending on our immigration policies & relative desirability for people to come here.
TulliusCicero 4y ago
Germany has had a relatively stagnant population for some time now and they still have housing price problems, especially for buying real estate. Western countries have somehow managed to develop learn helplessness on housing. It should be easier than ever to make safe, high quality housing, and yet it's become absurdly difficult and expensive instead. It's common to hear anecdotes from homeowners merely trying to do an extension or add an ADU on the kafkaesque nightmare of bureaucracy that we've managed to create.
mikeyouse 4y ago
Houses aren't fungible either. Some places have dirt cheap homes, many places don't. The number of buildings is only important so far as they are located where people want to live.
- khmii 4y ago
  [dead]
rawgabbit 4y ago
They actually did studies and predictions. It is not pretty. The story is that when we were an agricultural society, huge families lived in teeny tiny houses for generations. As we become more industrialized, we first saw the nuclear family (2 parents and 2 children), then single families (1 parent and 2 children and the dad living by himself, and then finally digital nomads (1 dude living by himself or shacking up with 3 other dudes). We may need the same number of housing units as families split up and everyone becomes a digital nomad. The long term strategy is that everyone lives in an RV and we just move city to city and live in an RV park. When I was growing up, we called people who lived in RV parks "trash". I guess we will become trash.
- kwere 4y ago
  its really convenient and by refurbishing older buses can be really price competitive if you do the conversion yourself[0] [0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1L53KMj-xY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1L53KMj-xY
- dashundchen 4y ago
  Who are "they" and what is this study?
  - rawgabbit 4y ago
    https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210826-sole-person-households https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210826-sole-pe... https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/household-size-limitations-and-housing-costs/ https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/household-size-...
- conductr 4y ago
  Not so long ago all our ancestors lived in a cave down by the river.

steveBK123 4y ago

In the US it's almost all immigration dependent now. So the answer could be anywhere from "1-2 generations" to "never", depending on our immigration policies & relative desirability for people to come here.

TulliusCicero 4y ago

Germany has had a relatively stagnant population for some time now and they still have housing price problems, especially for buying real estate. Western countries have somehow managed to develop learn helplessness on housing. It should be easier than ever to make safe, high quality housing, and yet it's become absurdly difficult and expensive instead. It's common to hear anecdotes from homeowners merely trying to do an extension or add an ADU on the kafkaesque nightmare of bureaucracy that we've managed to create.

mikeyouse 4y ago

Houses aren't fungible either. Some places have dirt cheap homes, many places don't. The number of buildings is only important so far as they are located where people want to live.

khmii 4y ago
[dead]

rawgabbit 4y ago

They actually did studies and predictions. It is not pretty. The story is that when we were an agricultural society, huge families lived in teeny tiny houses for generations. As we become more industrialized, we first saw the nuclear family (2 parents and 2 children), then single families (1 parent and 2 children and the dad living by himself, and then finally digital nomads (1 dude living by himself or shacking up with 3 other dudes). We may need the same number of housing units as families split up and everyone becomes a digital nomad. The long term strategy is that everyone lives in an RV and we just move city to city and live in an RV park. When I was growing up, we called people who lived in RV parks "trash". I guess we will become trash.

kwere 4y ago
its really convenient and by refurbishing older buses can be really price competitive if you do the conversion yourself[0] [0]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1L53KMj-xY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1L53KMj-xY
dashundchen 4y ago
Who are "they" and what is this study?
- rawgabbit 4y ago
  https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210826-sole-person-households https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20210826-sole-pe... https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/household-size-limitations-and-housing-costs/ https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/household-size-...
conductr 4y ago
Not so long ago all our ancestors lived in a cave down by the river.