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>Okay, you wanna look at SOFR instead? Why would I want to look at the SOFR? That's the epitome of cherry-picked data. I just sent you a list of common econo

>Okay, you wanna look at SOFR instead? Why would I want to look at the SOFR? That's the epitome of cherry-picked data. I just sent you a list of common economic indicators, and you're willfully avoiding them, which doesn't bode well for your argument. If anything, you should be referencing the yield curve, which is an actual economic indicator and has recently inverted. That would illustrate your point much better.

jldugger 4y ago
> Why would I want to look at the SOFR? I'm asking what your preferred metric for interest rates is. Apparently you want to look at the yield curve slope? Which is fine, and commonly used as a leading indicator of recessions. But in a way its about the market predicting a change in the future value of money, rather than economic conditions right now. Sort of a second order effect, and IDK any timeseries that captures it that I can compare now versus last year with. > I just sent you a list of common economic indicators, and you're willfully avoiding them, which doesn't bode well for your argument You sent one random top ten listicle from investopedia. How do housing starts matter as a macroeconomic signal for a tech startup selling services to other tech companies? It won't, these are proxies for the larger economy. And it wont ever matter to them. Interest rate is the macro indicator that most directly affects such companies, so thats the one I'm discussing. Other conditions exist, like every tech company undergoing layoffs and cost cuts is a factor but not usually treated as "macro." It's definitely a factor, and one worth reflecting on. But we're not trying to forecast global GDP here, so when an exec says 'macroeconomic conditions' think capital markets not rental vacancy rate.
- deleted 4y ago
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- SantalBlush 4y ago
  That isn't a "random listicle", it's a list of major macroeconomic indicators that are very well known. You're free to discover for yourself that housing starts is among the major indicators used by the government and businesses in their determination of the health of the economy. You're dismissing other indicators, like GDP and unemployment, in favor of the one you personally feel is important; that's called cherry picking. When determining the health of the economy, you need to look at all major indicators. >But we're not trying to forecast global GDP This has exactly nothing to do with trying to forecast global GDP; that's not what these indicators are for.

jldugger 4y ago

> Why would I want to look at the SOFR? I'm asking what your preferred metric for interest rates is. Apparently you want to look at the yield curve slope? Which is fine, and commonly used as a leading indicator of recessions. But in a way its about the market predicting a change in the future value of money, rather than economic conditions right now. Sort of a second order effect, and IDK any timeseries that captures it that I can compare now versus last year with. > I just sent you a list of common economic indicators, and you're willfully avoiding them, which doesn't bode well for your argument You sent one random top ten listicle from investopedia. How do housing starts matter as a macroeconomic signal for a tech startup selling services to other tech companies? It won't, these are proxies for the larger economy. And it wont ever matter to them. Interest rate is the macro indicator that most directly affects such companies, so thats the one I'm discussing. Other conditions exist, like every tech company undergoing layoffs and cost cuts is a factor but not usually treated as "macro." It's definitely a factor, and one worth reflecting on. But we're not trying to forecast global GDP here, so when an exec says 'macroeconomic conditions' think capital markets not rental vacancy rate.

deleted 4y ago
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SantalBlush 4y ago
That isn't a "random listicle", it's a list of major macroeconomic indicators that are very well known. You're free to discover for yourself that housing starts is among the major indicators used by the government and businesses in their determination of the health of the economy. You're dismissing other indicators, like GDP and unemployment, in favor of the one you personally feel is important; that's called cherry picking. When determining the health of the economy, you need to look at all major indicators. >But we're not trying to forecast global GDP This has exactly nothing to do with trying to forecast global GDP; that's not what these indicators are for.