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Worth pointing out that the most recent Tesla crash freakout was similarly thinly sourced. We have one line in a police report saying AP was in use, and no sta

by ajross 4y ago

Worth pointing out that the most recent Tesla crash freakout was similarly thinly sourced. We have one line in a police report saying AP was in use, and no statements from the driver nor telemetry from the vehicle. And that was enough to drive thousand-comment threads right here on HN. (And yeah, I'm on record saying that it's extremely unlikely autopilot commanded the lane change in that Bay Bridge accident. It just doesn't work like that, the blinkers came on simultaneous with the motion. That's a human driver for sure.)

gamblor956 4y ago
The NHTSA is on record as saying FSD was "definitely" engaged during the recent Bay Bridge accident in the tunnel. And notably, Musk did not chime in to blame the driver like he always does when the driver is at fault, which is very strong circumstantial evidence that FSD was engaged.
- ajross 4y ago
  No, they aren't "on record". Go find the cite. One paper had a source saying that it was active within 30 seconds of the collision (which is like 3x longer than the time shown on the video we have). Look, the clearly most likely scenario here is that the driver got confused, overrode the AP, and then failed to maintain awareness as they commanded the sudden lane change. Obviously that's not what people want to hear, but it's the best explanation. I've pulled AP out and changed lanes manually, probably rapidly, on a bunch of occasions. All it takes is to do that when not paying attention... All your logic was equally applicable to the accident in the linked article, and it was all wrong there too. (Also... Musk didn't "blame the driver" in the linked case? Not sure what you're citing. Tesla generally doesn't say anything about their customers' accidents, for some very obvious reasons.) Just wait. All I'm telling you is that I drive with this product every day and I'm not seeing FSD behavior in that video. If it turns out I'm wrong then I'll sheepishly admit it. But I know which direction the spin runs and my BS detector is pretty good.
  - aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA 4y ago
    > it was active within 30 seconds of the collision (which is like 3x longer than the time shown on the video Merely stating it was active _within_ 30 seconds, that doesn’t mean it was deactivated at the 30 second mark. Or am I missing something?
    - ajross 4y ago
      I'm saying that it was probably active until the driver disengaged it to make that lane change. Everything about that video says "confused driver" and not autopilot misbehavior. The car will let the blinkers run for 3-4 seconds before a lane change, and it's very cautious about when to do it (much more so than a human driver would be). Do I have proof? Of course not, it's not my car. But that's what it looks like. And I'm pointing out that this is exactly what happened in the accident in the linked article, where Tesla drivers were all pointing out how this just didn't match AP behavior[1]. And they were ignored. And they were right. Just wait. [1] In that case: the version of autopilot at the time would only engage on roads with lane markings, and this road didn't have them. Also the speed of the collision could only be reached on that tiny road with manually-commanded acceleration, AP is quite timid.
  - gamblor956 4y ago
    Tesla has already admitted to deactivating driver assist systems when they detect unavoidable accidents. As for not seeing FSD behavior in that video...I do. It looks like the idiot Teslas I see every morning on my commute, randomly braking and swerving like drunk frat boys.
    - ajross 4y ago
      > It looks like the idiot Teslas I see every morning on my commute, randomly braking and swerving like drunk frat boys. Yeah, that's what all these arguments always come down to. They start with "safety" and end with simple emotion. Look, I'm genuinely sorry there are jerks in Teslas near you. But they're just that: perfectly human jerks driving like perfectly normal human beings. Please don't project your hatred of the culture, or Musk, or EVs, or whatever on the safety aspects of the system. Also: call a friend and get a ride. They're pretty amazing vehicles. You'd be stunned at how fun it is to have a robot drive you around.

by ajross 4y ago

gamblor956 4y ago

The NHTSA is on record as saying FSD was "definitely" engaged during the recent Bay Bridge accident in the tunnel. And notably, Musk did not chime in to blame the driver like he always does when the driver is at fault, which is very strong circumstantial evidence that FSD was engaged.

ajross 4y ago
No, they aren't "on record". Go find the cite. One paper had a source saying that it was active within 30 seconds of the collision (which is like 3x longer than the time shown on the video we have). Look, the clearly most likely scenario here is that the driver got confused, overrode the AP, and then failed to maintain awareness as they commanded the sudden lane change. Obviously that's not what people want to hear, but it's the best explanation. I've pulled AP out and changed lanes manually, probably rapidly, on a bunch of occasions. All it takes is to do that when not paying attention... All your logic was equally applicable to the accident in the linked article, and it was all wrong there too. (Also... Musk didn't "blame the driver" in the linked case? Not sure what you're citing. Tesla generally doesn't say anything about their customers' accidents, for some very obvious reasons.) Just wait. All I'm telling you is that I drive with this product every day and I'm not seeing FSD behavior in that video. If it turns out I'm wrong then I'll sheepishly admit it. But I know which direction the spin runs and my BS detector is pretty good.
- aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA 4y ago
  > it was active within 30 seconds of the collision (which is like 3x longer than the time shown on the video Merely stating it was active _within_ 30 seconds, that doesn’t mean it was deactivated at the 30 second mark. Or am I missing something?
  - ajross 4y ago
    I'm saying that it was probably active until the driver disengaged it to make that lane change. Everything about that video says "confused driver" and not autopilot misbehavior. The car will let the blinkers run for 3-4 seconds before a lane change, and it's very cautious about when to do it (much more so than a human driver would be). Do I have proof? Of course not, it's not my car. But that's what it looks like. And I'm pointing out that this is exactly what happened in the accident in the linked article, where Tesla drivers were all pointing out how this just didn't match AP behavior[1]. And they were ignored. And they were right. Just wait. [1] In that case: the version of autopilot at the time would only engage on roads with lane markings, and this road didn't have them. Also the speed of the collision could only be reached on that tiny road with manually-commanded acceleration, AP is quite timid.
- gamblor956 4y ago
  Tesla has already admitted to deactivating driver assist systems when they detect unavoidable accidents. As for not seeing FSD behavior in that video...I do. It looks like the idiot Teslas I see every morning on my commute, randomly braking and swerving like drunk frat boys.
  - ajross 4y ago
    > It looks like the idiot Teslas I see every morning on my commute, randomly braking and swerving like drunk frat boys. Yeah, that's what all these arguments always come down to. They start with "safety" and end with simple emotion. Look, I'm genuinely sorry there are jerks in Teslas near you. But they're just that: perfectly human jerks driving like perfectly normal human beings. Please don't project your hatred of the culture, or Musk, or EVs, or whatever on the safety aspects of the system. Also: call a friend and get a ride. They're pretty amazing vehicles. You'd be stunned at how fun it is to have a robot drive you around.