In retrospect, the necessary conditions for unicorns were: 1. Accommodative monetary policy. 2. Little or no regulation of the network effects that lead to plat

In retrospect, the necessary conditions for unicorns were: 1. Accommodative monetary policy. 2. Little or no regulation of the network effects that lead to platform monopolies. and, in at least some cases.... 3. Tremendous numbers of people in high income countries switching to smartphones. Now, it's always dangerous to make predictions, but just for fun: None of these conditions are likely to obtain in the U.S. over the next decade, so I don't think we will see new unicorns. A different kind of technological shift could occur - perhaps LLMs will create whole new classes of UX - but it seems the incumbents are well situated to capture the upside, absent a big regulatory push.