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Ask HN: Is “learn to code” now “learn to drive a big rig”?

• bunbunbun 4y ago
  If anything I think those being laid off right now will be sought after in areas that want tech sector quality but have not been able pay tech sector wages. Government jobs, education, nonprofits, all have lots of openings right now.
  • sublinear 4y ago
    There's also a very long tail of businesses that are not "big tech", but still have significant IT departments and pay well for "boring" work.
    • hd95489 4y ago
      Expect they don’t pay all that well. Just ok ish
    • dieselgate 4y ago
      That's my impression as well. I don't understand the perspective of "is software engineering over because I can't make a quarter million base salary anymore?". I've always preferred smaller companies and never wanted to work at a large tech company - don't foresee much change in my future unless I willingly change industries for personal reasons
      • sublinear 4y ago
        Yeah I mean what's so bad about half that pay and living somewhere affordable?
      • deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
  • agentwiggles 4y ago
    I have trouble buying this, having seen the salaries being offered by local government agencies looking for devs. I guess if the layoffs depress wages across the board some of it might start to look a _little_ more reasonable, but even in a market that's nowhere near the insanity of big tech salaries, the government salaries on offer are laughably low.
    • nicenewtemp84 4y ago
      I know people that work in tech at decent companies that can't buy a house. Every non major metro area mechanic, school teacher, city employee I know has a nice home. People should really consider doing lower paying boring work in places your mortgage can be $2000 a month.
      • throwaway4aday 4y ago
        Yikes, even $2k is a lot more than what I'm paying. Living in a city has its benefits but RIP bank account.
      • Loughla 4y ago
        >places your mortgage can be $2000 a month. This is shockingly major metro-area-centric. I want you to know that, and I feel like people on this board really need to understand how HIGH urban and suburban costs are. In many areas of the country, $2000/month is a seriously frighteningly massive home. For reference - in the middle of rural flyover, our 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom, 1800 square foot, full basement, 2 car garage, 1100 square foot full workshop home mortgage is 15 years at $750/month. We pay that, plus another $400 /month for the 70 acres the home sits on as well.
        • solarmist 4y ago
          I don’t think that’s still true. In Spokane, WA 10-15 years ago you could get starter homes for under $100k. Now that price is at least $300k (after cooling off for the last 12 months). If interest rates hadn’t risen it might be somewhere in between though.
  • MuffinFlavored 4y ago
    I have a friend who is basically an extremely "toxic capitalist" (to put it simply). He "called" that it wouldn't last that a lot of people were making "big" tech money + not really working 8 hours a day. Maybe that's what this whole "big tech layoff" is. A reset to lower overheated wages. Make 500,000 unemployed programmers compete for paycuts.
    • deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    • vbordo 4y ago
      Not quite sure why you're getting downvoted. Might be due to your friend's unsubstantiated claim tech workers (on average) are overpaid while underdelivering. However, the core observation is reasonable. Layoffs create desperation in the labor pool which is likely to drive median tech wages down. This benefits companies opex long-term as they restart the hiring cycle over the next couple quarters. Doubtful we're seeing market-wide collusion on these layoffs but it certainly creates an institutional hiring advantage.
      • bunbunbun 4y ago
        Agreed but also it’s weird how a lot of lay-off %s are 7% +\-1 though?
        • MuffinFlavored 4y ago
          It's like one CEO did it and it opened the door for it to be socially acceptable climate wise for everybody to follow suit.
          • bunbunbun 4y ago
            So, a fad?
            • MuffinFlavored 4y ago
• eiiot 4y ago
  Layoffs in the tech sector are happening now, but won't be happening forever. The world is relying on more software, not less. Understanding programming will still be valuable in the future. Also, just a note on the specific comparison: it's a lot easier to learn to code in one's spare time than to learn to drive a big rig. Learning to code is free, and can remain free until you ship your first product. The same is not true for most other career choices.
• PaulHoule 4y ago
  If you're a coder you get to sleep in your own bed.
  • toast0 4y ago
    If you've got a fancy rig, your bed comes with you.
    • ElfinTrousers 4y ago
      I can't say I've ever wanted to work as a trucker, but I have wanted to give a sleeper cab a try at least once in my life, just to see what it's like.
• logicalmonster 4y ago
  Are these two points basically true? > As time goes on, businesses are continuing to rely on more software, not less software. > AI tools are very fascinating, but are nowhere near ready to replace most programmers for most tasks. If those points are true enough, developers as a group aren't going away, though some individuals might choose a different path.
  • AnIdiotOnTheNet 4y ago
    More and more software does not necessarily require more and more developers to write it.
    • SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
      There's plenty of low code / no code solutions right now and somehow programmers are still trucking along (pun intended).
      • johngalt_ 4y ago
        Not to mention someone has to code the no code tool, alongside all the plugins, scripts and glue code that at some point will be required.
      • fsloth 4y ago
        Even with low code tools the percentage of people who will develop the tool will be low compared to the number of users.
      • dgb23 4y ago
        No code is just "code with a fancy UI, a less powerful language and no or bad integration with common tooling". It doesn't replace programming, it _is_ programming. It's useful because it makes programming more accessible and in some cases the visual representation has benefits over text. I see more and more professional fields and application interfaces adopting things like SQL, Python, Notebooks (Jupyter etc.), JavaScript etc. Excel is obviously huge. A ton of technicians that work with physical stuff are also writing code in embedded interfaces or on large screens even. Programming is not a thing only software developers do.
• braingenious 4y ago
  I’d rather learn a trade like plumbing or electrical systems. Hell, the richest guy I’ve ever met ran a high-end masonry business.
  • shadowgovt 4y ago
    The nice thing about masonry is it's a skillset that never ages out. Not as long as entropy exists.
  • dghlsakjg 4y ago
    Go hang out with some older tradies. It absolutely wrecks you body. You can make a decent living, but it isn't the easy money that a lot of people think. A lot of the older tradies I know made sure that their kids went to college if that tells you anything
    • 13years 4y ago
      Yes, if going this route, would be optimal if you own your own business so that over time you can hire help and just manage the business.
    • throwaway4aday 4y ago
      You gotta get out of doing the work yourself as quickly as possible, it's a young man's game and if you've got the smarts you start your own business to avoid having to do 100% of the manual work yourself.
  • ska 4y ago
    I suspect you mean "owned" by ran. Trades are a decent entry into owning a small business with higher barrier to entry than say a restaurant but still pretty straightforward and can be made revenue stable with a small team (sometimes no permanent team, e.g. some builders). Especially if you grind when you and the business are young, you can end up in a good place fairly predictably. But mostly people are financially successful here mostly by being business people, not trades people - with all that implies. Sure, there are some people who do well in a strong union, but it's a small fraction of the market. Many people actually working a job the trades are more likely to end up with health problems and a sketchy retirement outlook.
• dieselgate 4y ago
  What exactly are the equivalencies between coding and driving a truck - is it supposed to relate an industry potentially ripe for automation or just an "expected" service many people rely on? I find this all hilarious because just like 5 years ago so many were quoting Bill Gates saying "programming knowledge will be the literacy of the 21st century" and it depends. If people are all so genuinely interested in tech and coding in the first place what's the problem?
  • ElfinTrousers 4y ago
    Not so much that the jobs are inherently similar. It's more that, during the last recession roughly 15 years ago, and IIRC actually the past several recessions, there were a lot of ads for truck-driving schools in the media. The idea is that trucking is supposed to be a recession-proof trade, and whether that idea is true or not, it's good for trucking schools if people believe that. The parallels to coding, bootcamps, etc. are clear.
    • dieselgate 4y ago
      Gotcha, thanks for clarifying - it's about the Utility of the lines of work. I personally feel better about thinking of these lines of works as "very important to maintaining the status quo" rather than "recession-proof" but it's basically the same thing
• Zetobal 4y ago
  Learn to X is always the dumpest way to go about fixing labor shortages. I don't want to know how many 2X year olds will burn out coding just because they actually loath it. If the pay goes down there will be an exodus.
  • Loughla 4y ago
    100% accurate. I've worked in higher education for years, and it's a constant drum beat of chasing a world that doesn't exist. 20 years ago, it was just all about going to college. Go to college. Get a degree. Get a good job. That was the path. 10 years ago it became, go to college, but pick the right major. Finish that major. Get a good job. 5 years ago it became, go to college and major in engineering or cs. Finish those majors. Make money. For the last year or two, it has really been all about trades. Welding, plumbing, HVAC, electrical. It's just a matter of time before those graduates can't get jobs and it swings again. I'm betting ethics and philosophy and/or social work will be the next big push.
    • feoren 4y ago
      [dead]
• irvingprime 4y ago
  The current state of the economy is not the permanent state of the economy. Many tech workers will see new opportunities, though not necessarily soon enough to stave off real hardships. That being the case, there is no harm in learning another way to make a living. Having a fallback is always a good idea. If it becomes the main thing because your first career never came back, count yourself lucky and go with it.
• shadowgovt 4y ago
  Trades are a great idea. ... I don't think I'd specifically recommend "Learn to drive a big rig" though. In addition to the industry itself being a real bad deal for vehicle operators (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-shortage.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/09/business/truck-driver-sho...), it's the segment of the transportation sector centered in the crosshairs of disruption-through-automation. The self-driving vehicle companies that laid off were, broadly speaking, the ones working on individual vehicles and taxi services, not the ones working on self-driving trucks. That sector is still going strong because the value proposition is simple and obvious (lives saved and money saved per mile).
  • Loughla 4y ago
    Trades are an okay idea. People have this rosy picture of a skilled trades job, with high pay, great benefits, and security from a strong union. And while that can be true, it is certainly only a very small part of the picture. You can't just say, I'm going to be a plumber, and bam, you're a plumber. You could, conceivably do that with something like rough frame carpentry, but those aren't the high paid trades people talk about. Most trades have required education and/or apprenticeships that aren't paid that great. If you can make it through that, then the pay gets better. But we're talking years, literally years to get there. Then, once you're doing the skilled trade, you're working long (looooong) hours, long weeks, away from family (sometimes), in the heat and cold and rain. These are good jobs, but they're not magic make money jobs like people tend to frame them. They're hard, and your career will get cut shorter than it should by either straight up injury or problems of accrued physical debt from repetitive strain.
    • jacquesm 4y ago
      Ask a plumber to show you their crawlsuit and describe the last month or so of their work and you being to appreciate their rates.
      • DwnVoteHoneyPot 4y ago
        I talked to 3 plumbers recently when I bought a partially built house. First guy was a "commercial" plumber working on new builds only. Second guy was a "home renovation" plumber. Both these 2 plumbers won't go near a clogged toilet. Third guy specialized on clogged pipes and home emergency repair.
• karaterobot 4y ago
  I think it's probably inevitable that software development becomes another trade, or at least becomes less of a career hack — a fairly simple way to make an outsized amount of money given the rareness of the skill required. I don't know about the timeline for this happening, but I think it has to happen sooner or later. I think it would be a mistake to switch to trucking right now, as despite delays with no end in sight, it does feel like some substantial use of automated driving in the commercial driving industry is coming eventually. I would expect that to reduce the market value of drivers. If someone wanted to become a truck driver, I'd say he'd better do it for the love rather than the money. Even though both careers are going to get shaken up, it's still a lot easier to make six figures in software for now. In general, I roll my eyes when politicians suggest that people who lose their jobs due to industries shifting out from under them can just go learn new skills and get back on track. I haven't seen that happen. It feels like a pat on the back as you're shoving them out the door.
• riskneutral 4y ago
  The recent layoffs are part of a business cycle that we're currently going through. Sooner or later the pendulum will swing the other way and tech companies will be hiring for high growth rate again. I guess this is the first experience of a business cycle for a lot of people in the tech sector, hence the collective "surprised Pikachu face" as the kids would say.
• autokad 4y ago
  my sister drives a big rig, and my nephew use to do it. Not only is it an extremely cyclical industry, its not for everyone. you have less social life and spend more time sitting than a coder. One port change can cause truck routes to disappear. also simple routes will probably be replaced by self driving rigs in the future. I would highly not recommend lots of people jumping into that. however, if this tech rekt lasts, I imagine people will be flocking to the next big thing until that crashes too. its like bulls on ice
• Ancapistani 4y ago
  Nope. I know I'm not the only one here who didn't enter tech immediately after college. Once upon a time I was an electrician. I've done framing, roofing, general farm work, I was a pharmacy technician and ran a photo processing lab. My hobbies today include things like machining. The "problem" in tech isn't so much the availability of jobs, but the relative income. There's nothing I've found that I could do that would replace my income in a reasonable time frame. If I left tech I'd be looking at a >50% reduction in income.
• skee8383 4y ago
  Former CDL-A driver here. I fell for the truck driving meme back in 09 when the economy shat the bed, I thought it would be a relatively easy way to earn 50 to 60k per year without any college degree. I was for the most part wrong. The companies lie to get you in the drivers seat, lied about CPM, lied about sign on bonuses and hometime. When it was all said and done i was making roughly $200 more per week driving a truck than i was working retail at walmart, and at least i got to go home and sleep in my own bed.
• VLM 4y ago
  Truck driving is frictional. The management that screwed up something as obvious and profitable as railroads created a frictional desire for diesel trucking to work around their mistakes. Likewise, strangely, coding is also frictional. The business people who could "write their own code in COBOL" or "write their entire business in excel spreadsheets" would already be programmers if they could program which they can't so they don't AND management will not be up to the task of deploying profitable AI, so coders also have guaranteed work. To some extent, labor only exists via mismanagement of capital. Humans CLEARLY aren't capable of properly managing a rail logistical infrastructure, so truck drivers have permanent employment. I would theorize that humans aren't capable of deploying AI generated programs, we've barely been able to deploy code written by competent humans, so coders should have permanent employment.
• floor2 4y ago
  This is a deeply flawed premise. Tech sector grew headcount by like 100% over a couple years, and then did layoffs of 5-10%. They still have massively more employees today than they did pre-covid. People are significantly overreacting to the current layoffs and ignoring all the massive hiring spree of the last 3 years. If you hire 100 people and then layoff 8, the narrative shouldn't be that the end is nigh.
• wnolens 4y ago
  In the sense that people looking for a new career will move towards non-tech paths instead - hell no. These layoffs are minor. I think the opposite will become increasingly true: folks that otherwise would not be found in a computer science/engineering undergraduate will find their way to tech. Software/Tech is incredibly wide and deep. There's need all over the stack, and there is definitely lots of need at the medium-skill level. I spend a lot of time configuring AWS, and running simple db queries. Look at the heaps of programmers who are economically successful in a single framework like React. I think the field will stratify and there's lots of room in the 50-80k/y range doing useful tech work for businesses in every sector. I can see it in FAANG where there's a clear distinction between those destined for Staff level and invent new things, and those who will plateau at SDE2 but do so much necessary work.
• feoren 4y ago
  No, "learn to code" is now "learn to read". Long ago, people could get work as a scribe or scrivener -- knowing how to read and write was, on its own, enough to get you a job. As literacy became more prevalent, it wasn't enough to "just read". You had to "read and ____". Similar to business; I would not recommend someone get "just a business degree" so they can apply to any company in the world. I'd recommend they get a "business degree and ____" to target a specific industry or role. The same is slowly happening with programming. As the spectrum of what "programming" means continues to widen, and as code-literacy becomes more and more common, it's going to be harder to get a job as "just a programmer". So learn to code, And.
  • jstx1 4y ago
    While some stuff is slowly becoming more accessible, the deeper end of technology gets deeper and deeper - complex systems with many moving parts operating on many different levels of abstraction.
  • f8o 4y ago
    I'm not sure about these comparisons because even with more and more people learning scripting and/or a few DSLs for their industries Software Engineering is still a career. Deeper knowledge and experience matters.
  • dghlsakjg 4y ago
    You need to work with some Gen. A or whatever comes after gen z. They have a level of computer literacy that is shockingly bad. They use computers everyday, but only within the walled gardens of google classroom/iOs/Android. I taught an after school HTML/CSS for grade school age kids, and the majority of them didn't know about the concept of a directory structure. Even just saving a text file (instead of having a file autosave to their google drive) was a foreign concept. Kids these days very much are NOT digital natives in the way that millenials and Gen x were.
    • type0 4y ago
      What is really troubling is that many kids are impatient with technology (thank tiktok and other apps for that) so coding is the worst they could imagine.
• livingdeadpgmr 4y ago
  It seems that programming on any heavily used platforms will eventually come down to quality and price. I have seen that when the bosses see that the quality of the software can be managed at a lower level (quality being lower) then the software jobs will go to the lowest price. With remote working now stable and accepted, the software jobs will go to a job market that is cheaper. Also when you factor in tools that are able to create software for users by users just describing what they want and the users can update the requirements themselves, software jobs will evaporate quickly. Writing software will go by the wayside as a career. There will always be exceptions like, platforms that are not as popular, hardware software, specialty software, etc. Time now to start thinking about security in your job and learning skills that will keep a paycheck coming in.
• potbelly83 4y ago
  Honestly as a senior engineer at a FAANG like startup, coding is but a small part. Most of my week is split across - coding - architecting systems (if we're in the design phase of a project) - writing design documentation - researching business requirements (basically understanding the domain i'm working in) - getting cross org support for my work and meeting stake holders So yeah for most tech roles nowadays, learn to code is the equivalent of learn to send an email. I think the days are numbered for developers who just want a bunch of Jira tickets given to them and be left alone.